Daytona 500 Picks and Preview: Favorites, Values, and Longshots for the Great American Race

The next generation of NASCAR racing officially begins with the 64th running of the Daytona 500. Denny Hamlin has put his stamp on this race over the last four years, but can he do it this year in a new car? We make our top picks to win the 2022 Daytona 500.

There is a reason fans consider the Daytona 500 the Super Bowl of the NASCAR season. The glitz and glamour of the season opener on one of the most storied tracks in the history of motorsports make this event the most anticipated for fans and drivers alike. Denny Hamlin owns two of the last three victories in the spring race here. 

A new twist this season has enhanced the already-heightened drama of the big race. For the first time ever, NASCAR’s Next Gen cars will take a regular-season green flag. This evens the playing field as every driver is now in uncharted territory. Last season, Michael McDowell took home his first-ever Daytona 500 trophy. It was his first Cup Series checkered flag in his 14-year career. 

Sunday officially marks the beginning of what should be one of the most exciting NASCAR seasons in recent memory. Fans and bettors alike should enjoy the spectacle that is the Daytona 500.   

Here are my outright picks for NASCAR’s Daytona 500 at the Daytona International Speedway in Daytona, FL (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet).

Daytona 500 Info

When: Sunday, Feb. 20, 2:30 p.m. ET
Where: Daytona International Speedway, Daytona Beach, FL
How to watch: FOX

Welcome to race week!

RETWEET IF YOU’RE READY FOR THE 2022 #DAYTONA500 ON FOX pic.twitter.com/mvFCESgLk0

— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) February 14, 2022

Daytona 500 Odds

Daytona 500 Odds Analysis

Taking a look across the books at the odds for Hamlin, the consensus favorite, you’ll find a few interesting line differences. BetMGM has Hamlin listed at +700 to win Sunday’s race. Yet on DraftKings, you can get him at +850. What’s more, PointsBet is offering +900 for him to take home the checkered flag. These are not too far off from the odds you will find for him to win it all this season. 

You will have to scroll pretty far down the odds chart to find the defending Daytona 500 champion. McDowell is sitting at +6000 at DraftKings and listed at +7000 at PointsBet. McDowell showed well in practice this week coming in with the fastest time of the first session. He fell back some in qualifying though, turning in the 22nd fastest lap time.

He’ll have a chance to improve on that starting position during the duel races. That said, anything can happen in the Daytona 500 and it’s hard to count anyone out.

Daytona 500 betting at @BetMGM

Line Movement
• Joey Logano opened +1200, now +900

Highest Ticket%
• Denny Hamlin 14%
• Chase Elliott 11%
• Kyle Larson 11%

Highest Handle%
• Hamlin 18%
• Larson 12%
• Elliott 12%

Biggest Liabilities
• Hamlin
• Kyle Busch
• Elliott

— John Ewing (@johnewing) February 15, 2022

Daytona 500 Picks

• Denny Hamlin (+900 via PointsBet) 
• Chase Elliott (+1100 via PointBet)
• Ty Dillon (+10000 via DraftKings)

SEE ALSO: NASCAR Cup Futures

Who Will Win the Daytona 500?

Hamlin (+850)

There’s just something about the Florida sun that brings out the best in Hamlin and his finishes at Daytona show it. The No. 11 FedEx Toyota has taken the checkered flag in two of the last three runnings of the Great American Race. Were it not for a miscalculated final pit stop in last year’s race, Hamlin could have been the first driver to win three straight Daytona 500s. 

In this season of uncertainty, placing bets on anyone will come with some extra risk. However, as Hamlin has proved in the past, he can run with the best of them on this track and this race in particular. He qualified in the eighth position and will determine his final starting position for Sunday in the two duel races. Although, do not let starting position scare you from placing a bet on Hamlin as the potential to win changes almost from lap to lap in this race.

Also, do not be alarmed if you see Hamlin duck to the back of the pack as the race gets underway. He is well known for his patience in letting the field do what it will in the early stages of the race. So long as he stays in touch with the lead pack, he will decide when is the best time to insert himself into the mix and run for the win.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Elliott (+1100)

Over the last three races at Daytona, Chase Elliot has collected three straight top-10 finishes. Two of those were for second place in both the fall 2020 race and last year's Daytona 500. The Hendrick Motorsports cars have been among the more dominant in the field for the last several years. It doesn’t seem to be changing this season despite the introduction of the new car.

During the qualifying session, Hendrick Chevrolets grabbed not only the top two spots, but they represent four of the top five cars on the list. While Elliott may have been the last car in that equation, as long as he’s in the conversation for the lead, he’s as dangerous as the rest of them. 

While BetMGM and DraftKings list him at +1000, you can find a slight uptick in value on PointsBet which gives you +1100 for selecting Elliott as the winner. 

Dillon (+10000)

One of the greatest things about the Daytona 500 is that it offers the opportunity for just about anyone to win. All a driver has to do is find the right line at the right time and come away with the checkered flag. McDowell did it last season and won his first-ever Cup race in the process. Austin Dillon won the second Cup race of his career at the Daytona 500 to start the 2018 season. So, for Ty Dillon to replicate his big brother’s success and take home his own trophy is not out of the realm of possibility.

Dillon had a three-race stretch from the summer race of 2018, to the summer race of 2019 in which he registered three straight top-10 finishes. The highest of the three came in the last of them when he crossed the finish line in fourth place in July 2019. He did suffer a disappointing 2020 season at Daytona which may account for the depression of value coming into 2022.

His odds have gotten better since last season as well. This year, Dillon will step into the NO. 42 Petty GMS Camaro. That seat was most notably occupied by reigning Cup champion Kyle Larson before his suspension. Dillon has the equipment under him to make a charge for the win, and he also has a teammate now that has tasted victory on this track in Erik Jones.

Where to Bet on the Daytona 500

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks for odds boosts:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Picks made on 2/17/2022 at 3:23 p.m. ET.

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