College football Week 1 Thursday mega parlay (+611 odds): Penn State dispatches Purdue

After a long offseason, college football is here. After a nice appetizer with Week 0, the first true week of college football kicks off on Thursday. There are only 16 games taking place on Thursday, including a number of contests involving Power 5 teams. Penn State takes on Purdue in a Big Ten matchup, while Pittsburgh hosts West Virginia in the “backyard brawl”. Other notable teams in action include Oklahoma State, Minnesota, Tennessee and Arizona State.

Let’s look at the three components of our mega parlay for Thursday’s action.

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

Penn State -3.5 (-105)

New Mexico State vs Minnesota under 53 (-110)

Central Michigan vs Oklahoma State under 59.5 (-110)

Parlay odds: +611

For this play we are going with one favorite against the spread and a pair of game totals. Let’s break down each of these legs one by one.

Penn State -3.5 (-105) over Purdue

Penn State and Purdue enter the season with entirely different roster constructions. The Nittany Lions are returning most of their secondary, along with their offensive coordinator, head coach and quarterback. On the other side, the Boilermakers lost star receiver David Bell and defensive end George Karlarftis to the NFL, plus second receiver Milton Wright. Penn State’s defense could easily the best in the Big Ten this season, while Purdue’s offense was shockingly one dimensional in 2021. I like Aidan O’Connell and his top-10 QBR from a season ago, but a conference game to open the campaign won’t do him any favors with all the new pieces to incorporate. On the other side, having a 6th year under center in Sean Clifford will only help Penn State. Even in a conference road spot to open the season, the Nittany Lions should prevail by a touchdown.

New Mexico State vs Minnesota under 53 (-110)

New Mexico State struggled mightily on offense against lowly Nevada. The Aztecs averaged nearly 30 seconds per play, which would put them near the bottom 10 percent in pace based on last season’s data. That bodes well for another clock-killing game. Unfortunately for New Mexico State, things won’t get any easier against Minnesota. The Gophers defense isn’t elite by any stretch, but they should control the trenches in this one. New Mexico State will be forced to throw the ball, and it remains to be seen if the Aztecs respond to the challenge. On the other side, Minnesota has historically started slow in season openers under PJ Fleck. The Gophers should put up points, but I’m not expecting more than 38 points in this season opener. As long as this stays above the key number of 51.5, this total still has value.

Which Group of 5 team can make the College Football Playoff?

Central Michigan vs Oklahoma State under 59.5 (-110)

For the final leg of this mega parlay, we’re going with another under. It’s not an exciting pick, but more than 57 percent of Week 1 totals over 56 have gone under since 2006. This is for good reason, as these numbers are often inflated. In this case, I think a total of nearly 60 points is far too high for an Oklahoma State offense that struggled with consistency in 2021. While the Cowboys defense ranks 128th in returning production, that shouldn’t matter as much against a run-oriented Central Michigan team. And even if the Cowboys gash the Chippewas with their rushing attack, that just provides further reason for Oklahoma State to avoid turning to its inconsistent passing game. Even successful touchdown drives should chew up clock. For that reason, I’ll be backing the under with confidence here.

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