As Bryce Young looks to defend his Heisman Trophy, CJ Stroud tops the oddsboard. Let’s examine the Heisman Trophy futures markets to determine which players offer value at their current prices.
Young opened with odds of +800 to win the Heisman Trophy in 2021. But that price was long gone after his first game, and Young was then adjusted to +150. His price didn’t exceed +225 for the remainder of the season, and he was able to capture the trophy while getting 684 of the 875 possible first-place votes.
There are three very clearly defined favorites for the 2022 Heisman Trophy: Young, CJ Stroud, and Caleb Williams. Stroud was actually a -200 favorite to win the 2021 award before Ohio State’s final regular-season game against Michigan, but he ultimately finished fourth.
Let’s examine the current 2022 Heisman Trophy futures market and identify the best value plays.
2022 Heisman Trophy Odds
2022 Heisman Trophy Picks
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (+5000 via PointsBet)
- Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida (+6000 via FanDuel)
Heisman Trophy Predictions: Favorites
C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (+275 via PointsBet)
I'd like to get Stroud in my Heisman portfolio, but not at this price. This purchase would be much more appealing preseason if he's trading at +500.
However, I don't think there's much risk in waiting for a better price at +275. Young was one of the favorites all year in 2021, and he was still available at +225 in Week 11.
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (+400 via FanDuel)
Taking Young to win back-to-back Heisman trophies doesn't interest me in the least. Only one player has won the award two straight years (Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975).
There have been several instances when Heisman winners produced better statistics the following campaign and weren't considered. Young is as a complete fade at +400.
Caleb Williams, QB, USC (+800 via Caesars)
While passing on Williams and Stroud at their opening prices could be risky, we've seen so many long shots cash tickets in this market, so Williams doesn't appeal to me at +800. Despite Williams' talent as a dual-threat quarterback, I'm questioning that price after his remarks about not running as much.
Williams also wore a knee brace during USC's spring game, which he didn't do at Oklahoma.
Heisman Trophy Predictions: Contenders
Uiagalelei, QB, Clemson (+4000 via Caesars)
Hard pass. I'm getting Kelly Bryant-Trevor Lawrence vibes here. Uiagalelei will lose his job to five-star recruit Cade Klubnik, so don't bet on him to win the Heisman Trophy. There are so many better options than Uiagalelei in this price range.
Gabriel, QB, Oklahoma (+4000 via PointsBet)
Gabriel opened at a much shorter price of +2000 through Barstool than the +4000 we see at PointsBet.
Oklahoma has produced several Heisman candidates in recent years, so there's likely some Sooners bias ingrained in Barstool's line. Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, and Gabriel differ in that the latter won't play for Lincoln Riley.
Van Dyke, QB, Miami (+4000 via Barstool)
Tyler Van Dyke looked really good last season after taking over for the injured D'Eriq King at quarterback. But I'll pass on the +4000 price. Van Dyke is purely a passer, making it difficult for him to remain in the Heisman conversation.
Robinson, RB, Texas (+4000 via FanDuel)
Bijan Robinson has been given the shortest odds of any running back on the board at +4000.
He only played 10 games in 2021. Still, if Robinson doubled his 2021 statistics, he would fall seven rushing touchdowns short of Derrick Henry's 2015 stats, the last running back to win the Heisman Trophy.
Odds of +4000 on a running back aren't intriguing, as there are higher-priced quarterbacks worth taking.
Ewers, QB, Texas (+4000 via FanDuel)
A lot of people have been jumping on the Texas Longhorns' futures because of Ewers. If Ewers is that dominant, I'd rather bet on him to win the Heisman at +4000 than Texas to win the National Championship at +8000.
Ewers must be on your watch list from the very beginning at this price. Be prepared to strike if he flashes brilliance early.
Anderson, Edge, Alabama (+4000 via Caesars)
It's difficult to imagine a defensive player winning the Heisman, but this is actually an interesting price point for Anderson.
He finished fifth in the 2021 voting, and everyone knows his name heading into 2022, which is a tremendous advantage for a defensive player. I don't intend to purchase Anderson at +4000, but I can see the appeal.
BIG HEISMAN BET
@CaesarsSports just took a $1.1K bet on Alabama's Will Anderson (+4000) to win the Heisman Trophy. A defensive player hasn't won the award since 1997...
Smart bet?
— br_betting (@br_betting) July 22, 2022
Dart, QB, Ole Miss (+5000 via Caesars)
Dart decided to transfer to Ole Miss after Williams followed Riley to USC. Any quarterback playing in a Lane Kiffin offense should attract your attention, but I didn't see enough from Dart in 2021 to justify a +5000 price.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (+5000 via PointsBet)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba may struggle to win the Heisman because of his teammate Stroud. However, voters awarded the Heisman to Devonta Smith in 2020 over Mac Jones.
This price is simply too high for Smith-Njigba, and I doubt you'll be able to buy him at +5000 again during the season. Don't pass on this opportunity now before his odds decrease.
Same ole same ole for JSN
— PFF College (@PFF_College) July 19, 2022
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State (+6000 via FanDuel)
I would be much more interested in buying TreVeyon Henderson at +6000 than Robinson at +4000 if you're seeking a running back for the Heisman Trophy. Despite not getting a heavy workload, Henderson produced better statistics than Robinson in 2021. He'll be part of an explosive offense, and his price difference of $20 over Robinson is also a considerable advantage.
Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee (+6000 via Caesars)
There were only two quarterbacks with a higher efficiency rating than Hendon Hooker in 2021. From a Heisman perspective, Hooker is particularly attractive because he also runs the ball.
Although he possesses the skill set necessary to be part of the discussion, his price of +6000 doesn't excite me enough to run to the window and make this bet.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida (+6000 via FanDuel)
FanDuel's decision to open Anthony Richardson at +6000 to win the Heisman is mind-blowing. Don't hesitate for a second at that price. Richardson boasts the potential to put together one of the most explosive seasons ever from a quarterback.
Devin Leary, QB, NC State (+8000 via FanDuel)
Devin Leary doesn't receive much national attention despite throwing 35 touchdown passes to just five interceptions as a sophomore.
PointsBet is offering Leary at only +5000, which is much shorter than FanDuel's number. You should also take into account the success of the team when handicapping the Heisman race, and NC State could win the ACC in 2022.
Heisman Trophy Picks: Long Shots
Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson (+10000 via FanDuel)
Keep your push notifications on for this one. Klubnik's +10000 price will disappear fast if he wins the job over Uiagalelei. I'll place a bet the moment he's announced as the starter if his odds haven't moved.
Grayson McCall, QB, Coastal Carolina (+10000 via PointsBet)
Grayson McCall is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in college football. He has been for the past two seasons, but McCall won't win the Heisman Trophy at Coastal Carolina. McCall's price may as well be +30000, as I don't see any path for him to win this award.
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky (+10000 via FanDuel)
Will Levis will undoubtedly be a first-round NFL pick, and possibly among the top-10 selections. His stats don't necessarily stand out from a Heisman perspective, but the +10000 available through FanDuel is certainly eye-catching.
Levis is trading at +5000 through PointsBet, and he isn't much higher at Caesars (+6000).
Previous Heisman Trophy Winners
Where to Bet on Heisman Trophy Futures
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Heisman Trophy futures picks made 7/25/2022 at 8:40 a.m. ET.
The post College Football Futures Odds and Picks: Can Smith-Njigba Win the 2022 Heisman Trophy? appeared first on Picks.
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