The No. 1-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs are expected to be the top seed for March Madness on Selection Sunday. Their aim is to return to the Final Four in New Orleans and cement their place in college basketball history. We take a look at the 2022 March Madness tournament with our top picks and targets.
Despite being one of the top programs in the NCAA for many years, Gonzaga has never been able to win a National Championship. Will Gonzaga finally cut down the nets in 2022 and take its rightful place in history?
CHET HOLMGREN COAST-TO-COAST SLAM
@ZagMBB pic.twitter.com/DmAy8cwdFk
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 25, 2022
Gonzaga began the preseason as the +600 favorite to win the National Championship, but the team right behind might surprise you. The Michigan Wolverines opened at +1000 and is now at risk of missing the NCAA Tournament altogether.
Michigan is demonstrating that a strong recruiting class does not always translate into team success. Getting the right players on a roster is like assembling a jigsaw puzzle, with each player filling a specific role. This is something head coach John Calipari finally figured out and Kentucky may have its best team since he took over. The combination of top recruits, transfers, and veteran leadership has transformed the look of the Wildcats.
Below, we track the early NCAA Tournament odds with our top college basketball futures picks and all the details for March Madness.
2021-22 NCAA Tournament Odds
(Odds as of Feb. 24)
March Madness Picks
- Texas Tech to Make the Final Four (+600 via DraftKings)
- Arkansas Razorbacks to Make the Final Four (+1600 via FanDuel)
- Illinois Fighting Illini to Win NCAA Tournament (+4000 via FanDuel)
- Alabama Crimson Tide to Win NCAA Tournament (+7000 via PointsBet)
- Arkansas Razorbacks to Win NCAA Tournament (+8000 via DraftKings)
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March Madness Favorite Picks
Gonzaga Bulldogs (+450 via Caesars)
Gonzaga is the top-ranked team on KenPom and in the NET rankings. Head coach Mark Few's team fell one win short of winning it all last year when losing to Baylor in the National Championship game. Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren provide the Bulldogs with an interior presence that should help them avoid an early upset during March Madness.
Gonzaga began the season with odds of +600 to win the National Championship. The Bulldogs currently account for 11.5% of the handle at BetMGM, the highest percentage of any team.
Key wins: Texas, UCLA, Texas Tech
Kentucky Wildcats (+800 via DraftKings)
Although this is not Calipari's most talented team at Kentucky, it is his most cohesive. The Wildcats are third in both the NET and KenPom rankings. Oscar Tshiebwe is a Wooden Award frontrunner who averages 16.4 points and 15.3 rebounds per game.
Kentucky opened the season with odds of +1600 at BetMGM. During the course of the season, the Wildcats reached a high of +2200, but currently sit at +800. As a result, they represent one of BetMGM's biggest liabilities.
Key wins: Kansas, Tennessee, Alabama
Arizona Wildcats (+900 via Barstool)
Tommy Lloyd, a first-year head coach, has made an immediate impact with the Wildcats. Under the guidance of the long-time Gonzaga assistant, Arizona has been ranked as the second-most efficient team in college basketball by KenPom. On KenPom, the Wildcats are the only team other than Gonzaga that has an offensive and defensive efficiency rating in the top 10. The Wildcats are led by Canadian guard Bennedict Mathurin.
The odds for Arizona to win the National Championship began the season at +5000 at BetMGM. The Wildcats were as high as +7000 at other sportsbooks. Due to the opening odds, BetMGM offered at the beginning of the season, Arizona represents the largest liability for the sportsbook.
Key wins: Illinois, UCLA
Purdue Boilermakers (+1100 via PointsBet)
The Boilermakers are led by sophomore guard Jaden Ivey. With its athleticism and size, Purdue presents a challenge for any team on the defensive end. Although 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey is not able to play extended minutes, he is very effective when he is on the court.
As a result of its offensive flair, Purdue is much higher on the odds board than the KenPom rankings. According to KenPom, Purdue ranks 13th with the No. 1 offense, but it is the defense that is hindering its efficiency. In adjusted defensive efficiency, Purdue ranks outside the top 100.
Key wins: Villanova, Illinois
Auburn Tigers (+1200 via FanDuel)
Auburn is led by standout freshman Jabari Smith, who is expected to be the first overall selection in the 2022 NBA Draft. With North Carolina transfer Walker Kessler patrolling the paint, the Tigers also possess a strong interior defense.
Auburn began the year with odds of +5000 to win the National Championship. Similar to Arizona, the Tigers are a significant liability for sportsbooks due to their high opening number.
Key wins: Kentucky, Alabama
Kansas Jayhawks (+1600 via Caesars)
The Jayhawks are led by senior guard Ochai Agbaji. Kansas is poised to win its 20th Big 12 regular season championship since 1997. The Jayhawks have the third most efficient offense in college basketball.
Kansas opened the year at +1600, and that is where its odds remain.
Key wins: Texas Tech, Baylor
Duke Blue Devils (+1400 via DraftKings)
This will be Coach K's last March Madness before Jon Scheyer takes over head coaching duties. Duke has a number of star players, most notably freshmen forward Paolo Banchero.
Although the Blue Devils are primed to win the ACC, they have not been tested as much as other teams. They are 5-1 in Quad 1 games, while teams such as Baylor have competed in 14 of them.
Key wins: Gonzaga, Kentucky
Baylor Bears (+1800 via FanDuel)
Although the odds for the defending National Champions have gotten longer over the past few weeks, do not be fooled. This team is capable of winning again. Adam Flagler and James Akinjo are the top scorers for Scott Drew's team.
Despite the Bears having the eighth-shortest odds to win the National Championship, they are fourth on KenPom.
Key wins: Villanova, Texas
March Madness Value Picks
Villanova Wildcats (+2600 via Barstool)
Villanova has seen its odds increase from where they opened. The Wildcats opened with odds of +1200 at BetMGM, and now they are available at +2600 via Barstool Sportsbook. However, you should not overlook Villanova. Guard play is crucial in March, and Collin Gillespie is one of the best in the country.
Key wins: UConn, Tennessee
Texas Tech (+2500 via DraftKings)
At this price point, the Red Raiders are one of the most intriguing teams. According to KenPom, Texas Tech has the number one defense when it comes to adjusted efficiency. This is a statistic that always results in success in March Madness. They have been fueled by the departure of Chris Beard to Texas and boast some of the more notable Quad 1 wins in college basketball.
Texas Tech opened the season with odds of +3500 at BetMGM. With the way the Raiders are playing right now, getting them for +2500 seems like a bargain. It is a team I am interested in purchasing sooner rather than later. This is because if they win the Big 12 regular season or tournament championship, their seeding and odds will greatly change. I am purchasing the +600 at DraftKings for the Red Raiders to make the Final Four.
No mercy
— Texas Tech Basketball (@TexasTechMBB) February 23, 2022
Key wins: Tennessee, Texas, Baylor, Kansas
UCLA Bruins (+2500 via DraftKings)
The Bruins' season has not been as successful as they had hoped due to the Arizona Wildcats stealing their thunder in the Pac-12. The odds for UCLA opened at +1200 but have since fallen to +2500. Their balance and guard play should make them very difficult to beat in March. They are one of just a few teams with both offensive and defensive ratings in the top 20 on KenPom.
Key wins: Villanova, Arizona
Illinois Fighting Illini (+4000 via FanDuel)
When you consider their current price point, this is one of my favorite teams on the odds board. It is also one of the first teams where we begin to see a difference in opinion from the sportsbooks regarding their futures number. While they are +4000 on FanDuel, Barstool is offering Illinois at +2500.
This is not a team I would like to face come March and the Illini could be a matchup nightmare for several teams due to the size and ability of Kofi Cockburn in the paint.
Key wins: Wisconsin
Houston Cougars (+4000 via FanDuel)
Kelvin Sampson continues to win in Houston despite an early injury to his best player, Marcus Sasser. On the odds board, the Cougars are 13th; however, they are sixth on KenPom. While Houston ranks high in the analytics, it has not defeated anyone of note. The Cougars' record in Quad 1 games is 0-3 and I do not anticipate backing them in March Madness.
Key wins: Oregon
Tennessee Volunteers (+5000 via FanDuel)
With a defensive efficiency rating that's top five in the NCAA, Rick Barnes and the Tennessee Volunteers are one of the top defensive teams in college basketball. Freshman guard Kennedy Chandler leads Tennessee in scoring. Barnes' teams, whether at Texas or Tennessee, have always performed well during the regular season, but they have never been successful in March Madness.
Key wins: Arizona, Kentucky
Texas Longhorns (+6000 via FanDuel)
The odds of the Texas Longhorns winning the National Championship began the season at +1600. Due to the addition of Beard on the sidelines, they were a very popular pick with futures bettors. Texas has failed to win big games and is only 5-7 in Quad 1 contests. Building a culture takes time, and Beard is definitely the right person for the job. Look at the foundation he laid at Texas Tech and how strong the program has continued to be after his departure. Despite the fact that 2022 may not be the year for the Longhorns, this program will be one to watch in the years to come.
Key wins: Tennessee, Kansas
Alabama Crimson Tide (+7000 via PointsBet)
Head coach Nate Oats' team is one of the most intriguing teams entering the NCAA Tournament. Having experienced guard play is essential to advancing deep in the tournament. In Jahvon Quinerly and Jaden Shackelford, Alabama has veteran guards. It is their style of play that allows the Crimson Tide to beat any team they face on any given night. However, they can also lose to anyone, and this has been the case for them this season. I see +7000 as a tremendous value for a team that has already defeated seven Quad 1 teams.
Key wins: Gonzaga, Houston, Tennessee, Baylor
March Madness Longshot Picks
Arkansas Razorbacks (+8000 via DraftKings)
My attention is immediately drawn to the SEC when looking for longshots. Arkansas dominated the SEC-Big 12 Challenge. Defense wins in March and the Razorbacks rank well inside the top 20 in college basketball in defensive efficiency. Guard JD Notae makes tough shots and Eric Musselman has proven he is capable of coaching teams to deep runs in the NCAA Tournament.
The odds of Arkansas winning the National Championship opened the year at +3000. From mid-December into January, Arkansas lost five of six games, resulting in an immediate jump in the odds to the +8000 range. Since then, the Razorbacks have won 12 of 13 games, including a victory over the No. 1 ranked Auburn Tigers. In spite of their impressive winning streak, their odds have never been shortened and they have been largely forgotten about by the sportsbooks.
Right now, the Razorbacks offer the best value of any longshot on the board. If they make a run in the SEC championship, their odds may be adjusted back to the +3000 range. With Arkansas' current price point, I am inclined to bet on them at +8000 to win the National Championship and at +1600 to make the Final Four.
No. 23 @RazorbackMBB wins at home against No. 16 Tennessee
— ESPN (@espn) February 19, 2022
Key wins: Auburn, Tennessee
UConn Huskies (+8000 via PointsBet)
On KenPom, the Huskies are in the top 20 in both the NET and KenPom rankings. When you examine teams this far down the odds board, they usually excel either offensively or defensively. With an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 23rd and a defensive efficiency ranking of 25th, the Huskies are balanced. With a strong showing at the Big East conference tournament, UConn's odds could get shorter prior to the NCAA Tournament.
Key wins: Auburn, Villanova
Boise State Broncos (+20000 via PointsBet)
Defense wins in March, and Boise State has one of the top defenses in the NCAA. The Broncos rank in the top 15 in college basketball in terms of defensive efficiency. Their ability to defend the defensive glass is one of their main strengths. They rank third in offensive rebound percentage.
Key wins: San Diego State
San Francisco Dons (+20000 via DraftKings)
Due to Gonzaga's tendency to steal all the headlines from the WCC, the success of the San Francisco Dons this season has not been widely reported. In addition to ranking in the top 25 on KenPom, San Francisco also has a future first-round pick in the NBA draft at point guard. The team's leading scorer is senior guard Jamaree Bouyea.
Key wins: Davidson
South Dakota State Jackrabbits (+50000 via DraftKings)
A mid-major team's greatest equalizer when facing a power conference team is the 3-point line, and no team shoots it better than South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits are first in the nation for effective field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Although I would not bet on them to win the championship, they are definitely a team that nobody wants to see in the first round. It will be very interesting to see who they face in the Round of 64.
Key wins: Washington State
March Madness Betting Strategies
Matchups are an important part of March Madness, as is where you get placed in a bracket. It is possible that teams you liked before Selection Sunday will face an impossible task and your opinion may need to be altered. Moreover, there will be other teams that you were not considering prior to viewing the brackets, and there may be a possibility for them to make a deep run based on their matchups. As soon as the brackets are released, the race will be on to analyze them quickly and buy the highest numbers possible on the futures board.
When you are backing one of the top teams, you should avoid teams with a style that makes them susceptible to upsets. In the past, top teams that have size and an interior presence did not suffer upsets the first weekend. They are able to convert their advantage on the inside into easy points and take care of business against inferior opponents. An elite team built around 3-point shooting is susceptible to an upset. Your tournament could be over with one bad night from behind the 3-point line.
When deciding who to bet on to win the National Championship, there is also the KenPom trend to consider. Among the last 19 champions, 18 finished with offensive and defensive efficiency inside the top 20. The only team to break this trend was the 2014 UConn Huskies. The following teams fit this trend this season:
- Gonzaga
- Arizona
- Baylor
- Houston
- UCLA
- Auburn
We always witness surprising upsets during March Madness, and it always lives up to the hype. Pay attention to the projected NBA draft boards when selecting a mid-major team to back on an upset. The best upset teams in recent memory have had future NBA players on them, but we did not realize it at the time. Duke's loss to Lehigh was a shocker, but it seems less surprising given what we know about C.J. McCollum now.
Among the teams that fit into that category this season are the San Francisco Dons, led by Bouyea.
When/Where is the 2021-22 NCAA Tournament?
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