College Basketball Futures Markets: Update and Hedge Opportunities

The conference schedules are coming to a close as Selection Sunday approaches. We examine hedge opportunities for some of your college basketball futures tickets as several markets are coming to an end.

Like me, you may own several futures tickets in a variety of conferences across college basketball. As the conference schedules near the end, it is crucial to keep an eye on your bets. This will ensure you maximize the value you created for yourself earlier in the season.

Following a busy Saturday on the college basketball schedule, now is a good time to take a look at where several of these conferences stand. This is based on their projected winning percentages and current live odds.

After a busy Saturday, only FanDuel Sportsbook had college basketball conference odds posted at the time of writing. It is advisable to shop around before buying any teams in these markets.

Our aim for this article is not to provide picks for which teams will win each conference. This is a result of the fact that markets have already lost a lot of their value at this point in the season.

This article was written with the goal of informing anyone who is already holding futures in these markets about which teams should be monitored in the stretch run as potential threats to their tickets. Across multiple conferences, the team that poses the biggest threat to the favorite does not have the next shortest odds.

College Basketball Conference Futures

Big 12 Regular Season Champion

There is definitely cause for concern if you have a Kansas Jayhawks ticket. Looking at the projected records, it seems that you have a winner, but let's consider a different scenario.

Kansas has five games remaining on its schedule, one of which is at Baylor. They can still reach 15 wins even with a loss, which Baylor and Texas Tech cannot achieve. Kansas has back-to-back games against TCU, as well as one more home game against Texas.

By winning out and Kansas losing two of its last five games, Texas Tech and Kansas would be tied for first place at 14-4. As a result of Texas Tech's sweep of Baylor and split with Kansas, they will hold the tiebreaker over Baylor and Kansas.

I believe Baylor has shorter odds of winning the Big 12 than Texas Tech due to their KenPom ranking. KenPom rates Baylor as the fourth-ranked team in the nation, Kansas as the fifth-ranked, and Texas Tech as the tenth-ranked. Although Baylor is statistically better than Texas Tech, the Red Raiders have two wins over Baylor during the regular season, giving them the advantage.

Baylor is not the team that should concern Kansas futures holders; it is Texas Tech. The Red Raiders hold all the tiebreakers and should have shorter odds than Baylor. They have no path to a regular-season title based on tiebreakers and will need a lot of help from the rest of the Big 12.

To put pressure on Kansas, Texas Tech will need to win their remaining games, and this is completely possible. In each of these four games, the Red Raiders will be five-point favorites or more, as they have the second most efficient defense in the country.

In order to secure your position as a Kansas backer, the Red Raiders must lose one of their final four games. Texas Tech is not to be overlooked in this college basketball futures market. They are your hedge team, not Baylor.

HEDGE: Texas Tech +700

Was nice to play two home games against Texas this year pic.twitter.com/HosQWaEKEP

— Texas Tech Basketball (@TexasTechMBB) February 20, 2022

SEE ALSO: All College Basketball Picks

ACC Regular Season Champion

It was possible for the ACC to be competitive down the stretch. However, Notre Dame's loss at Wake Forest on Feb. 19 virtually seals the conference's fate. As a result of a 57-43 victory over Notre Dame on Jan. 31, Duke holds the tiebreaker with Notre Dame.

KenPom currently rates Duke as the 9th ranked team in the country and Notre Dame as the 57th. In Duke's remaining games, their lowest spread will be when they travel to Virginia, and even then they are still favored by six points.

Since Notre Dame must outright defeat Duke by one game to win the Atlantic Coast Conference, I am confident in any Duke futures at this point in the season.

My current bet is on Duke at +100, and I intend to ride it out to the finish line.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Champion

Similar to the Big 12 Conference, the wrong hedge team has shorter odds. It is by far Dayton that poses the greatest threat to Davidson's Atlantic 10 championship.

KenPom currently rates Dayton as the 47th-ranked team in the country, while Davidson is ranked 55th. KenPom projects Dayton to have a 4-point home advantage over Davidson for their final A-10 game of the regular season.

The Dayton Flyers possess the most efficient defense in the A-10 and have relied on it to win seven of their last eight games. Similarly, Dayton also ranks higher on KenPom than VCU (71st) but the tiebreaker scenario is what gives Dayton the advantage over VCU in the Atlantic 10 final standings as a hedge team.

As long as Dayton defeats Davidson in the final game of the conference schedule, it will hold the tiebreaker over Davidson and VCU. There is the possibility that Davidson will already have the A-10 title locked up by then, but I'm not willing to take the risk, especially since I can purchase Dayton at +480.

With the price of +480 on Dayton, this hedge is extremely easy on me as someone who holds multiple college basketball futures for Davidson to win the Atlantic 10. The value I created by purchasing Davidson earlier in the season at +800, and again at +360, is not something that I am willing to play around with.

HEDGE: Dayton +480

Another big dub #TCC pic.twitter.com/7VdZE8kOi1

— Davidson Basketball (@DavidsonMBB) February 20, 2022

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