Celtics vs. Warriors Game 5 NBA Finals Picks: Boston Looks to Rebound on The Road

After blowing a chance to go up 3-1 against the Golden State Warriors on Friday, the Boston Celtics will have to get back on track in Game 5. Check out our Celtics-Warriors picks.

After the playoffs were full of uncompetitive blowout games, the Celtics and Warriors have treated fans to a series of close games. Each game has followed a reasonably predictable formula: the Celtics stay within three by halftime, lose the third quarter, and either come back or fold in the fourth.

If the Golden State Warriors want to win Game 5, they’ll have to do something no team has done all playoffs by beating the Celtics in consecutive games.

Here are my picks and predictions for Monday’s NBA Finals Game 5 matchup between the Celtics and the Warriors (odds via BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Celtics vs. Warriors Game Info

Date: Monday, June 13, 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Celtics vs. Warriors Odds Analysis

The Warriors opened as 3.5-point home favorites over the Celtics. We haven’t seen any movement at some books, but FanDuel now has Golden State as a 4-point favorite. The Warriors have attracted 80% of the cash on 63% of the tickets.

The total has seen similarly little movement. After opening at 212, most books have left it exactly there, although BetMGM has moved it down to 211.5. The Over has attracted 72% of the cash on 83% of the tickets.

Celtics vs. Warriors Picks

• Celtics +4 (-110 via FanDuel) ★★★★
• Over 211.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ★★★★
• Robert Williams Over 7.5 rebounds (-120 via FanDuel) ★★★★

Celtics vs. Warriors Predictions

Celtics +4 (-110)

The story of Game 4 was not Stephen Curry’s 43 points. It was not the fact he shot 7-for-14 from beyond the arc and became the third-ever player to score 40-plus points in a Finals game in the process.

No, the real story of Game 4 was that the Warriors won the rebounding battle. That marked the first time they've done so series. Golden State nabbed 55 boards, 16 of which were offensive, to Boston’s measly 42. This comes after Boston outrebounded Golden State by 16 in Game 3 and one in Game 2. The teams tied with 39 boards apiece in Game 1.

So, what changed? Game 4 was the only Finals game played after a single day off. It makes sense that Boston, a team that entered this series battered and bruised, struggled with limited rest. The Warriors could out-hustle the Celtics because Golden State had more gas in the tank. But with Game 5 played after a standard two-day break, the Warriors won’t have that advantage this time.

The Warriors and Celtics ended the regular season with team rebound rates of 50.9% and 50.5%, respectively. Should the rebounding race stay as close as it had been in Games 1 through 3, Boston will be able to keep this game close enough to cover. And given the incredible ability to recover the Celtics have shown all season, it’s hard not to back them as 4-point underdogs.

Over 211.5 (-115)

The totals market is hard to read. The Warriors and Celtics combined for 228 in Game 1, 195 in Game 2, 216 in Game 3, and 204 in Game 4. The Over is 2-2 and these teams are averaging 210.8 points per game, just a hair below this number. But some micro trends in this series and some macro trends from the full season point to value here.

Let’s start with the micro. The Over has hit whenever this series has changed venue. Further, the Over has hit whenever the Celtics win. Of course, we have a four-game sample to work with here, but those two facts seem meaningful. The Celtics should benefit from positive shooting regression after they shot only 37.5% from the field in Game 4, too. Lastly, this is the total we’ve seen all series by a two-point margin. Let’s buy the dip.

Other meaningful trends reveal themselves when we zoom out and look at the macro. The Over is 12-8 in Golden State’s playoff games, and it’s 10-12 in Boston’s. The Over is also 15-11-1 when Boston plays as a road underdog. The Warriors had limited scoring at home in the regular season, but the Over is still 6-5 in the Chase Center during the playoffs. 

Williams Over 7.5 rebounds (-120)

We’re betting on the Celtics to rebound in Game 5. Pun intended. Despite Boston’s overall poor showing on the glass in Game 4, Williams recorded the second-highest rebound rate in the game at 21.6%. He finished with 12 total boards, the most we’ve seen from him all playoffs. 

Williams’ strong showing in Game 4 feels more like a return to normal than an outlier performance. He averaged 9.6 rebounds per game in the regular season with a rebound rate of 17.6%. His playoff rebound rate sits at just 15.3%, but given the number of games he had to schlep through while seriously hurt, it’s not surprising to see that figure so low.

"Time Lord" recorded double-digit rebounds in his last two games. Ime Udoka increased his workload in those contents, too; after averaging 21.1 playoff minutes per game up before Game 3, Williams played 26 and 31 minutes in Games 3 and 4, respectively. The Warriors may adjust to make Williams’ life more difficult, but this number is far too low after his strong recent performances.

Where to Bet on Celtics-Warriors Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Celtics-Warriors picks made 6/12/2022 at 1:06 p.m. ET

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