Celtics vs. Heat Game 7 NBA Picks: Can Boston Take Care of Business on the Road?

After an upset win in Game 6, the Miami Heat return home and will look to finish off the Boston Celtics to secure a trip to the NBA Finals. Let’s take a look at the matchup in our Celtics-Heat picks.

The Miami Heat forced Game 7, although they did it with some help from the officials. There were 55 fouls called in Game 6 after referees averaged 39.3 fouls called per game during the 2021-22 season.

However, the Heat still did their part. They attempted fewer free throws than Boston, and the team went 24-for-25 shooting from the line. But I don’t expect the officials to play as large of a role in Game 7, and the Heat aren’t showing enough fight.

Here are my Celtics-Heat picks and predictions for Sunday’s NBA matchup (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Celtics vs. Heat Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, May 29 at 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL

Celtics vs. Heat Odds Analysis

The Celtics opened as 2.5-point favorites, and that's been remaining steady. Some books, like BetMGM, have added another half-point to the Celtics' advantage. Boston is attracting 61% of the tickets, but only 33% of the cash.

The total for this game has been moving considerably. After opening at 201, it now sits at 196 or 196.5, depending on the book. However, the Over is drawing 81% of the tickets and 75% of the cash.

Celtics vs. Heat Picks

• Celtics -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ★★★★
• Over 195.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★
• Jayson Tatum Over 3.5 turnovers (-145 via DraftKings) ★★★★

Celtics vs. Heat Predictions

Celtics -2.5 (-115)

I've usually come to regret fading the Celtics after doing it often in 2021-22. But because Ime Udoka’s team has yet to lose consecutive playoff games, I have faith Boston will win and cover on Sunday. There's just too much going right for the club.

The Celtics lead the Heat in two crucial metrics throughout the playoffs. They're producing a better effective field-goal percentage, with the team's 54% mark well above the Heat’s 51.2%. The Celtics also earn free throws at a higher clip, with a free-throw attempt rate of 29.9% to Miami’s 25.1%. While the Heat do boast advantages in offensive rebounding and turnover percentage, Boston’s better shooting is helping the Celtics considerably in the postseason.

Aside from Jimmy Butler’s heroics, the Heat haven't been shooting well during the playoffs. Miami is shooting 44.7% in the postseason, but that drops to 43% without Butler’s contributions. Kyle Lowry, Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, and Gabe Vincent are all shooting less than 40%. Lowry is even posting an atrocious 28.4% from the field. Derrick White is the only player in Boston's rotation who's shot worse than that quartet.

Only one player in Miami's rotation is averaging 15-plus points per game, and three of Boston’s players are scoring at least that much.

The Heat will need consecutive miracle games from Butler to win this series. Put your money on the better overall team.

Heat +2.5 vs. Celtics in Game 7.

Heat just third home dog in a Game 7 since 2005.

Rockets +5.5 vs. Warriors 2018 (HOU lost, didn't cover)

Rockets +2.5 vs. Clippers 2015 (HOU won, covered)

— John Ewing (@johnewing) May 29, 2022

Over 195.5 (-110)

Game 7s tend to be low-scoring, defense-first affairs. Of the last 14 Game 7s, fewer than 200 points were scored in 10. With that in mind and two of the NBA’s best defensive teams involved, it’s easy to justify backing the Under.

But the sharps have already plundered most of the value on the Under, which is why the total has come down almost five points from its opening number of 201. This number is now the lowest we’ve seen all series, so take the Over instead.

The books have factored in both teams’ defensive prowess, which hasn’t left much of an edge for bettors to exploit. But Miami is still 54-44-1 to the Over in 2021-22, and Boston is 49-49-1 to the Over. The Over is also 18-12 when the Heat play as underdogs.

Tatum Over 3.5 turnovers (-145)

As much as I like the Celtics, Jayson Tatum turning the ball over plenty is a safe bet. He's averaging 5.2 turnovers per game this series, and the forward has yet to finish a contest with fewer than three. Tatum recorded seven turnovers in Game 6, tying his playoff high.

Miami’s defense has consistently been forcing Tatum to cough up the ball. That comes after the team forced 15.1 turnovers per game during the regular season. Butler is averaging 2.1 steals per playoff outing, too. That’s why the books have set the juice for this line at such an unprofitable number.

However, make this bet anyway because of how safe it’s been this series. Finding a bet with a 66.7% hit rate is rare, especially with its only misses coming by one.

Further, expect the ball to stay in Tatum’s hand for longer stretches because this is a do-or-die Game 7, and that means more chances for him to turn it over.

Where to Bet on Celtics-Heat Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Celtics-Heat picks made on 5/29/2022 at 11:33 a.m. ET.

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