Bucs WR Godwin’s Contract Keeps Looking Better And Better

I want to take you back in time to a little over three months ago. It was a simpler time, where guys who were paid to catch the ball and guys who were paid to stop guys from catching the ball could ink similar deals.

Back then Bucs fans were anxiously awaiting news of a Bucs extension with star wide receiver Chris Godwin. Godwin coming off of a season where he caught 98 passes for 1,103 yards and five touchdowns before tearing his ACL late in the season.

The assumption at that point in time among most of the football world was that Godwin and the Bucs would come to terms on a deal with an average annual value somewhere in the neighborhood of $17.5 million. That would have made Godwin the seventh-highest paid wide receiver in the NFL.

Then on March 6 some very surprising news broke. The Bucs were going to use their franchise tag on the young star for the second consecutive year. This meant Godwin would receive a one-year, $19.2 million contract. It also gave the team additional time to negotiate exclusively with Godwin on a long-term deal.

Then new came out that the Chargers and receiver Mike Williams had agreed to a three-year $60 million contract. That deal made tied Williams with Amari Cooper for the fourth-highest AAV among wide receivers in football. This had huge implications for the Bucs and Godwin.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Williams was not seen as quite the complete receiver Godwin was and his counting stats paled in comparison as well. Godwin and Williams shared the same agent as well. Shortly thereafter news broke of Godwin and the Bucs reaching an almost identical deal to the Williams contract.

Now let’s fast-forward back to present day. Godwin’s $20 million AAV has gone from Top 5 contract among wide receivers to almost out of the Top 10. Five receivers have signed contract extensions that increase their AAV above the $20 million threshold since Godwin’s deal became official. And looking at the quality of those receivers, it becomes apparent that Godwin’s deal is looking more and more like a bargain with each new signing/restructure/extension.

Now any list of “the best wide receivers in football” tends to end up in a shouting argument where each side cherry-picks stats that help build their case. And unlike in baseball, there isn’t an all-encompassing WAR (wins above replacement) metric publicly available that can help establish value in this debate. So admittedly this is an incomplete case. But with that said using some publicly available metrics it becomes easy to see that the Bucs actually made out well on the Godwin deal.

Let’s start with a personal favorite of mine. While PFF grades aren’t perfect, they are the best publicly available play-by-play evaluations of players. Where does Godwin rank in this metric? Last year Godwin’s 81.3 PFF grade ranked 11th in the NFL. Screening out receivers who are still playing on rookie deals and he moves up to fifth. The ninth-highest AAV on the fifth-highest grade is good value when it comes to NFL contracts.

Looking beyond the grades and you can see Godwin continually looks favorable on a value-perspective. Looking at yards per route run, which is a good composite for how often a receiver gets open to attract a throw from their quarterback and what they do with that throw, Godwin again ranks favorably.

I used a minimum of 75 targets and again screened out players still on rookie deals. Godwin ranks tied for sixth (with Mike Williams!). The Bucs know Godwin’s value. And despite the fact that his contract exceeded expected value among most at the outset of free agency it is apparent that they still got good value just four short months later.

Basically, any way you slice it, that Godwin deal in retrospect is looking like a steal for the Bucs.

And don’t get me started on Mike Evans …

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