Bucs at Saints: Pewter Preview And Predictions

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BUCCANEERS at SAINTS

WHEN: Sunday, September 18, 2022 | WHERE: Caesars Superdome | KICKOFF: 1:00 p.m. ET | TV: FOX

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Kevin Burkhardt |ANALYST: Greg Olsen | SIDELINE: Erin Andrews & Tom Rinaldi

RADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Game day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report staff to make its weekly game predictions. Let us know what you think in the article comments section and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: I’ve Seen How This Movie Ends – Too Many Times, Unfortunately

The Bucs can beat the Saints if the defense plays close to how it played against the Cowboys in Week 1, especially on third down. The key will be to forcing Jameis Winston into third-and-long situations and applying pressure. If the Bucs can revert Winston back into his old turnover ways they should be able to win and start the season 2-0. Tampa Bay will need some lockdown coverage, especially on the outside with Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean. That’s where Winston likes to go with the ball.

As I’ve reported this week, it will be key for the Buccaneers to be balanced on offense by effectively running the ball against the Saints. If successful, that should wear down the Saints defensive line throughout the game and make them less effective rushing the passer. The Bucs want Marcus Davenport, Cameron Jordan and David Onyemata having to fight off blocks to make tackles – not tee off on Tom Brady. The key will be for Leonard Fournette to stay healthy and not have his hamstring injury flare up, and for the Bucs to avoid turnovers. Tampa Bay has turned the ball over 16 times in the last seven losses, compared to just five turnovers by New Orleans.

I’ve picked the Bucs to end their regular season losing streak against the Saints too many times over the last couple of years – only to be let down. So, I’m picking New Orleans to win again. Sorry, Bucs fans. Hey, if Tampa Bay pulls off the Week 2 upset in the Big Easy, you’ll be happy. And so will I – I’d love to see the narrative change and this actually becoming a rivalry instead of a one-sided affair. If the team lose, well at least I start the season 2-0 in my predictions.

Reynolds’ Score Prediction: Saints 24, Bucs 20
Reynolds’ Season Record: 1-0 

Matt Matera: Struggles Continue For Bucs Against Bitter Rival

When will the Bucs regular season losing streak end against the Saints? Not this week, unfortunately. While I do think this is a closer battle than some of their latest contests, it’s another episode of Tom Brady looking human as the Bucs’ offense struggles to move the ball against the Saints’ defense. The Bucs are going to rely heavily on Leonard Fournette once more. I know he’ll be ready, but I’m not sure if the newly constructed offensive line can.

I’m looking at the 200 rushing yards that the Saints allowed last week as an odd anomaly. They were fourth in the NFL last year in stopping the run, and Marcus Mariota of the Falcons runs more than Brady. The Bucs will commit to the run, but the Saints will do a better job up front stopping it with David Onyematta, Demario Davis and others. If the Bucs have to start Josh Wells at tackle, it is a necessity that you help him on multiple double teams with Cade Otton or Ko Kieft. Either way, the Bucs have to find that ground game once again because constantly passing won’t work. That’s especially with Chris Godwin likely out plus Mike Evans and Julio Jones ailing with a calf and knee injury.

The Bucs defense should be stellar again. They’ll look to take advantage of the Saints offensive line with Vita Vea and Akiem Hicks getting the better of Andrus Peat and Ceasar Ruiz. They’ll give Jameis Winston trouble, but the Saints also have better weapons at receiver than the Cowboys, so it’ll be a tougher challenge for second string corner Jamel Dean, who will get a good dose of Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry. These teams are going to muck it up for a low scoring game with plenty of field goals. I just can’t continue to pick the Bucs over the Saints when they’ve consistently lost as favorites. The Saints with the home crowd backing them get just one more stop over the Bucs they drop to 1-1 and second in the NFC South division.

Matera’s Score Prediction: Saints 20, Bucs 17
Matera’s Season Record: 1-0 

JC Allen: Bucs Lose Close One In New Orleans

Welp, it’s Saints week. So you know what the means. The Bucs’ record over the last seven regular season games will be mentioned ad nauseam, and rightfully so. The inability to beat the Saints really comes down to a few correctable issues. Eliminate mental errors, don’t turn the ball over, establish the run, and convert on third down. The Bucs have struggled in all of these areas. In the previous four tilts Tampa Bay has converted just 20-of-54 third down attempts, while accumulating 28 penalties for a staggering 271 yards. Limiting mental mistakes and keeping drives alive will be crucial if they are going to win this game.

Perhaps the biggest issue has been Tom Brady’s inability to figure out Dennis Allen’s defense. In the Bucs’ four losses, Brady has thrown a combined eight interceptions. To put that in perspective he’s only thrown 24 total in his first two seasons in Tampa Bay. So, one third of Brady’s picks have come against the New Orleans defense. It’s not just interceptions, though. He’s also been sacked a whopping 16 times in those four matchups. That’s 37 percent of his 43 sacks he’s taken over the last two seasons. Protecting the football – and Brady – must be of the utmost importance if the Bucs are going to win this game.

If the team can establish a running game early, it will force the Saints to change the way they have attacked the offense in prior matchups. The last thing the Bucs want to do is to be put in a position where Brady is throwing the ball all game, especially with young, untested offensive linemen. The 74 yards on the ground Tampa Bay has averaged versus New Orleans in the last seven regular season games isn’t going to cut it. While this Bucs team looks like the better team on paper, I’ve got to see it before I believe it. The Bucs have played better in New Orleans than at home and while I think it’s close, I’m just not sure they can accomplish all four feats to pull out a victory against the Saints – yet.

Allen’s Score Prediction: Saints 23, Bucs 20
Allen’s Season Record: 1-0

Bailey Adams: Doesn’t Matter What “Should” Happen … Saints Win Again

This is a frustrating one to call. The Bucs are supposed to be the better team. But the Bucs were supposed to be the better team in Week 9 of the 2020 season when they lost 38-3 to the Saints on their home field. They were supposed to be the better team in Week 8 last year when they let Trevor Siemian beat them 36-27 after Jameis Winston exited early. And they were definitely supposed to be the better team in Week 15 last year when they got shut out, 9-0, at Raymond James Stadium.

So, is Sunday set up for the Bucs to beat the Saints, snapping a seven-game regular season losing streak against them? It should be. Tampa Bay is more talented. It has the better quarterback, the better receivers and the better roster overall. The formula to win this game involves running the ball more effectively, playing turnover-free and staying away from penalties. I think Todd Bowles is more likely to stick to that formula, and it could give the Bucs a good shot in the Caesars Superdome.

But recent history is too strong for me to ignore. The Bucs have forced me into wait-and-see mode — I’ll believe they can beat the Saints when I see it. So, no matter how much I want to believe this is the week when they’ll reverse their trend against New Orleans, give me the home team to take an early lead in the NFC South standings. Tampa Bay will get another shot to end that regular season skid later this season at Raymond James Stadium. As of now, I think that’s when they finally get over the hump.

Adams’ Score Prediction: Saints 24, Bucs 17
Adams’ Season Record: 1-0

Josh Queipo: Turnover Luck Fuels Close Win

I don’t know of anyone on our staff who feels “good” about their prediction. And you can count me in that boat. On paper the Bucs and Saints match up fairly evenly across multiple position groups. Tampa Bay may have the slight edge at linebacker, and receiver when you account for the injuries the Bucs are dealing with. The two teams matchup fairly evenly along the defensive line, in the secondary, and at running back. Both have question marks along the offensive line. So, how do you choose a winner?

Oh, there was a position group I forgot about? Oh, that’s right. The Bucs have a giant edge at quarterback where the only way you can put Tom Brady and Jameis Winston in the same sentence is to say, “Tom Brady followed Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback for the Bucs.” And yet, despite having this same edge last year the Saints beat the Bucs – twice. So how can I still pick the Bucs to win? Two reasons.

First and foremost, I have found it to be a futile proposition to bet against an angry Brady. The man wears chips on his shoulder like I eat chips on gameday. He consumes them by the bagful. I believe he and the rest of the team are ready to put this New Orleans narrative behind them. And second and more importantly, I see the turnover margin going decidedly in the Bucs’ favor on Sunday. I anticipate a run-heavy attack that will limit the Saints ability to take the ball away. And the other side still has Winston under center. You do the math.

Queipo’s Score Prediction: Bucs 24, Saints 13
Queipo’s Season Record: 1-0

Kasey Hudson: Sunday Afternoon Lenny

Nothing better than a Week 2 rivalry showdown. The Bucs head into Saints’ territory looking to break a daunting losing streak. After a rough 9-0 loss in their last matchup, the Bucs determination to win will be high but plagued but unfortunate injuries yet again. Donovan Smith’s ability to play is still up in the air. Chris Godwin will be out the next few weeks and Mike Evans, Julio Jones and Russell Gage were a little banged up.

The Saints defense had a tough time stopping the run and failed to sack Marcus Mariota in their Week 1 comeback win. It was a good sign for the Bucs, whose run game picked up in the second half against the Cowboys. I expect another big day for Leonard Fournette and more action from rookie, Rachaad White. Although Evans and Jones did not have a full week of practice, I anticipate both players to be impactful. Evans has a grasp on Marshon Lattimore at this point and Julio Jones’ workload is due to increase and be successful against a team he has had multiple 100+ yard performances against.

Jameis Winston does not have quality protection from his offensive line. That can create a heyday for Tampa Bay’s high-pressure defense. I was banking on a Joe Tryon-Shoyinka sack last game and am re-visiting that expectation Week 2. Shaq Barrett talked about his excitement to chase down and contain running quarterbacks, and we know Winston will use his legs when the pocket collapses. The former Bucs QB is also known for risky throws that this Bucs secondary has the potential to finally convert. Between the run game and a revived defense, Bucs break the streak and secure a W.

Huddy’s Score Prediction: Bucs 23, Saints 20
Huddy’s Season Record: 1-0