The Boston Celtics face something of a must-win situation after dropping Game 1 at home to the Milwaukee Bucks. Check out our Bucks-Celtics picks.
The Celtics were one of the favorites to win the NBA Finals after their four-game sweep of the Brooklyn Nets and commanded a lot of public action. Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semis didn’t go their way.
Milwaukee asserted itself on the defensive end, allowing just 10 baskets inside the 3-point line in what was an absolute clinic. It won despite a very average 35.3% shooting performance from the field and also had to play without Khris Middleton once again.
Here are my picks and predictions for Tuesday’s NBA matchup between the Celtics and Bucks (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bucks vs. Celtics Game Info
Date: Tuesday, May 3, 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Bucks vs. Celtics Odds Analysis
The Celtics opened as 4-point favorites, and the line has moved in their favor across the board. Boston sits at -4.5 at BetMGM and -5 everywhere else. PointsBet is reporting 69% of the tickets and 58% of the money on the home team.
The total was initially offered at 215 points, and while DraftKings has stuck to its guns, others like BetMGM have moved the number to 215.5. PointsBet is even offering 216.
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Bucks vs. Celtics Picks
- Celtics -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM) ★★★★★
- Over 215 (-110 at DraftKings) ★★★
- Robert Williams Under 8.5 rebounds (-140 at DraftKings) ★★★★
SEE ALSO: All NBA Picks
Bucks vs. Celtics Predictions
Celtics -4.5 (-110)
It’s hard to call Game 1 a “feel-out” game for the Celtics, but without much on offense from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Ime Udoka certainly got creative with some different things he wanted to try out. Grant Williams played a hefty 29 minutes after he was relied upon late in the Nets series, and Al Horford was afforded 36 minutes. Surprisingly, Derrick White played just 16 minutes after a couple of long runs in the Nets series.
It was clear Boston wanted to go big to combat the length of the Bucks, and it didn’t really work out. The Celtics were minus-15 with Grant Williams, which was the second-worst plus-minus after Payton Pritchard’s minus-17.
The beauty of Boston is it has a plethora of options. In going big, the Celtics were still unable to score inside, lost the rebounding battle by six, and lost the game by 12. It was a good time to try it, considering Tatum and Brown were a combined 10-for-31 from the field, but it was ultimately a failed experiment.
The Bucks thrive in transition. They beat teams by running a track meet and getting quick buckets inside with Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Celtics should respond with a smaller look, using White and a quicker tempo to thrive from the perimeter and win this game by a decent number of points.
Over 215 (-110)
The Bucks have played eight straight playoff Overs, and at no point has the total reached as low as 215.
With the expectation that Boston adapts to the Bucks’ play style with a smaller lineup and quicker pace, this game should feature plenty of points. Additionally, the Over hit in three of the four regular-season meetings between these two teams, and the totals were far higher, reaching as high as 225 points.
The Celtics have been better than 117 points per 100 possessions on offense during the postseason. Milwaukee played excellent defense in Game 1, but Boston should score more in the second affair.
Williams Under 8.5 rebounds (-140)
Williams has averaged five rebounds per game in 17.4 minutes so far in three playoff games. There's no indication he'll see a significant increase in minutes as he returns from injury, and he could be used even less if Boston does indeed run a smaller lineup.
Williams was held Under this number in Game 1 and will have to compete with a Bucks team grabbing 53.9% of available rebounds in the playoffs, and one which ranked sixth in that regard during the regular season. This is not a good night to be playing rebounding Overs for Boston.
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Bucks-Celtics picks made on 5/3/2022 at 12:54 p.m. ET.
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