The Best Ball format lives and dies on average draft position. If you’re playing on a platform like Underdog, it is always staring you in the face. ADP functions like a market: there are ebbs & flows. We are ‘playing the ADP game’ in best Ball trying to get ahead of the curve.
Each selection in a Best Ball draft has an opportunity cost: there are alternatives and things to be gained and lost. As ADP rises/falls over the summer, you can:
Miss out on ‘past values’ (i.e. James Conner was going in the 5th… now he’s in 3rd)
Players can be hyped up from puff pieces from the media
Entire teams can rise like the tide or sink like a ship (the Browns)
On Thursday’s podcast, Andy detailed some recent Risers & Fallers in Underdog’s Bestball ADP. We’re comparing ADP frommid-May to this week which gives us a month & half worth of drafting to work with. Here are a few players and situations that stood out.
*ADP changes gathered from 4for4’s Underdog ADP app.
Justin Fields– Fields’ rushing upside is what we care about in 4-point passing TD leagues. I’ve shared this stat multiple times but he was one of six rookie QBs over the last decade to average 35+ rushing yards per game. That sample also included some wonky play-calling from Matt Nagy, injuries, and a lack of a clear plan of how to best utilize him. The ADP is still a great spot to get him as a QB2 hoping he finishes inside the top-10 at the position.
Matt Ryan– His rise may be subtle but it was the QBs around him that also fell. He moved up from QB22 to QB20. If you get an elite QB early, waiting for Ryan as your QB2 is nice.
Zach Wilson– The news cycle out of OTAs still has not been kind to the 2nd year QB. He still has the babyface and his struggles with accuracy are well documented. He still possesses enough upside to be intriguing. Wilson has the tools but there are still major questions about whether he can take the leap for fantasy and be consistent enough to count on. A couple of spike weeks? Yes, that’s on the table. Pairing him with more than one Jet feels dangerous.
Patrick Mahomes– The KC gunslinger moved from the beginning of the 4th back to the 4/5 turn. It’s a solid slide for a player that routinely is stacked with Kelce forming one of the more expensive combos in BestBall. Jason laid out the case for Mahomes busting a couple of weeks ago.
Travis Etienne– He moved from RB22 to RB17, up almost a full two rounds to 39th overall. He’s our RB22 in the Ballers consensus ranks and he’s now getting into expensive territory.
Mark Ingram– With the worry of Alvin Kamara‘s suspension looming, Ingram went from a forgotten man at the end of a draft to someone taken now in the 16th/17th round. He could have 2-3 useable weeks for a roster if he assumes the lead dog role in New Orleans.
Darrell Henderson– He’s one of my favorite RB4s to roster knowing how Sean McVay prefers a one-back system.
Antonio Gibson– I planted a flag on Gibson on Friday’s DFS Podcast stating he could be a league winner at his ADP. He keeps sliding to the end of the 6th round. He can beat his RB23 ADP and become a valuable piece of a best ball roster.
Tyler Allgeier– There was some early steam for Allgeier as he moved far ahead of Damien Williams as the RB2 on this roster. However, it seems like drafters began to correct realizing 5th round rookie RBs have an extremely low hit rate.
Jalen Tolbert– I put out a poll on Twitter as Tolbert’s rise shocked me more than any other player. The Michael Gallup news has mostly been negative making room for someone to step up on this roster. James Washington never has been able to earn targets in his career. He’s also injured and Tolbert was drafted in the 3rd round and at 6’3″, he is an intriguing prospect. It’s also a bit concerning he played the full four years at South Alabama, not exactly compelling competition.
Parris Campbell– In mid-May, he was 214th and now moved more than two full rounds. The news came out that he was running exclusively with 1st team offense in camp. We consider him one of the better value options as your team’s WR6/7 even if his lengthy injury history looms large. This Colts team still apparently likes him four years in.
Russell Gage– With the pessimism surrounding Chris Godwin‘s recovery, Gage is gaining more and more steam. He’ll likely continue to rise inside the 7th round soon.
Allen Lazard– We consider Lazard the clear WR1 for the Packers so while it’s great the market has adjusted, the value isn’t quite what it used to be beyond pick 100.
Courtland Sutton– He’s gone from a major value in the 5th round to approaching 3rd round territory. That’s a bit expensive for a player we’ve never seen truly excel beyond a WR19 on his resume from three years ago. We liked him better as a WR3 for your roster but now he has to hit as a top-15 guy.
Browns WRs- The Deshaun Watson fallout has also seen all the Cleveland WRs suffer as well.
Treylon Burks– He went from WR34 to WR40, a full round later now back of the 7th/early 8th. He’s also now behind Drake London as 1st rookie WR off the board. We like other rookies (hello Chris Olave) better to breakout. Asthma aside Robert Woods will likely earn more targets from Ryan Tannehill.
Michael Thomas– Last year, if you played the Michael Thomas best ball game it didn’t work out so well. It feels like the same refrain in 2022.
Christian Watson– As we mentioned, it was weird that Allen Lazard lagged behind Watson in ADP for so long. The market corrected itself and we’re still not too bullish on Watson’s prospects despite the early 2nd round draft capital the Packers spent on him.
Cameron Brate– Brate moved from being undrafted to moving up the 14th/15th rounds with the news of Gronk retiring. In five games last year without Gronk, he totaled only seven receptions and one TD. A game-changer at this stage in his career? No. But still, a stacking partner with Tom Brady is always something worth pursuing.
Cole Kmet– He’s a hot name as 100 targets feel like a given in a Bears offense begging for contributors. He’s still a value if you think he can finish inside the top 10 at the position.
Austin Hooper– Someone will catch the ball in Tennessee so it makes sense Hooper moved up almost a full round with the negative news on Burks. He’s a fine TE3 at the end of your best ball roster who could give you some useable weeks.
Rob Gronkowski– RIP to those BestBall rosters that banked on Gronk getting off the couch again. Yet, it still feels like in the middle of the season he could be down to run it back with Brady again.
David Njoku– He dropped because of the Watson news but he’s still viable as a TE2 on rosters knowing this team committed to him this off-season with a contract extension.
Logan Thomas– He needs to be off draft boards as he explained his recovery this off-season has gone so much slower than he anticipated. For a full overview, Thomas’ outlook is in our Ultimate Draft Kit Injury Report.
