Avalanche vs. Oilers Game 4 NHL Picks: Colorado on Brink of Series Sweep

The Edmonton Oilers will try to stave off elimination on Monday night when they host the Colorado Avalanche in Game 4 of the Western Conference Final. Read on for our Avalanche-Oilers picks and predictions.

After winning the first two games in Colorado, the Avalanche pushed the Oilers to the brink with a 4-2 victory in Game 3 on Saturday night. Valeri Nichushkin netted a pair of goals and backup goaltender Pavel Francouz stopped 27 shots to secure the win. Connor McDavid continued his ludicrous playoff run, adding a goal to his league-leading 30 postseason points.

Both the Oilers and Avalanche will each be without an impact forward in Game 4. Nazem Kadri is out for the remainder of the Western Conference Final with an upper-body injury, while Evander Kane received a one-game suspension for delivering the dirty hit that caused Kadri’s injury.

Can the Oilers live to play another day? Or will the Avalanche take another step toward hoisting Lord Stanley’s mug?

Here are my picks and predictions for Monday’s NHL playoff matchup between the Avalanche and Oilers (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Avalanche vs. Oilers Game Info

Date/Time: Monday, June 6, 8 p.m. ET
TV: TNT, CBC, Sportsnet
Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB

Avalanche vs. Oilers Odds Analysis

Despite 81% of cash coming in on the Oilers, the Avalanche, who opened as the -125 favorite, now sit at -130 over at DraftKings Sportsbook. Facing the grim specter of elimination, the home underdogs can be snatched up at +110.

The goal total is different depending on the sportsbook. Opening at 6.5, the total has been juiced up to seven with DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook. Meanwhile, the goal total still sits at 6.5 at Caesars, with the Over paying out at -135 odds, while the Under carries +115 odds.

Since 2005, in NHL games with totals of 7 or more goals the UNDER has gone 72-52-34 (58%) per @Bet_Labs.

Includes 4-1 in the playoffs.

69% of bets are on the OVER 7 in Avs-Oilers Game 4.

— John Ewing (@johnewing) June 6, 2022

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Avalanche vs. Oilers Picks

• Avalanche (-130 via DraftKings) ★★★★
• Over 6.5 (-135 via Caesars) ★★★★
• Cale Makar Over 2.5 shots (-175 via Caesars) ★★★★

Avalanche vs. Oilers Predictions

Avalanche (-130)

How sweep it is. Although the best player on the planet dons an Oilers sweater, he's not going to be able to drag them into Game 5. The Avalanche have been a slightly better team 5-on-5 through three games, posting a 51.2 Corsi For percentage, and a 51.67 expected goals for percentage. In all situations, Colorado is outscoring Edmonton 16-8 and is easily outpacing them in Corsi For percentage, expected goals for, expected goals against, and expected goals for percentage.

Even with Avalanche netminder Darcy Kuemper still questionable with an upper-body injury, I just can't trust Mike Smith to deliver the goods for the Oilers. Sure, Smith has stretches of sheer brilliance, but it's always seemingly undercut by a Three Stooges-esque gaffe that leads to one of the ugliest goals you've ever seen. McDavid won't be able to overcome Smith's unreliability or his team's inability to match Colorado's terrifying depth. The Avalanche will roll into the Stanley Cup Final.

Over 6.5 (-140)

As I mentioned earlier, Smith has served as a bit of a sieve through stretches of this series, and the Avalanche have feasted as a result. Colorado is averaging 5.3 goals per game, and has scored four-plus goals in all three games.

As Kuemper is still a question mark between the pipes for the Avalanche, Francouz could get the start. Colorado's backup has made five appearances during the postseason, registering a .920 save percentage and 1.15 goals saved above average. In his two-plus games against the Oilers, Francouz has stopped 69 of 74 shots. Although these are excellent numbers, I'm not sure Francouz has the juice to carry the load, and he'll be staring down the double barrel of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

Facing elimination, I expect McDavid to stuff the scoresheet, while the Avalanche will continue to send Smith to the red light district.

Makar Over 2.5 shots (-175)

Quickly developing into one of the NHL's premier defensemen, Makar's legend continues to grow with 17 points in 13 games in the playoffs. He's also averaging 3.6 shots per game, and has launched three-plus shots seven times in the postseason. Makar directed four shots on goal in Game 3 and I expect a similar performance on Monday night.

Where to Bet on Avalanche-Oilers Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Avalanche-Oilers picks made on 6/6/2022 at 7:11 a.m. ET.

The post Avalanche vs. Oilers Game 4 NHL Picks: Colorado on Brink of Series Sweep appeared first on Picks.