Avalanche vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Final Game 4 Picks: Colorado Hopes to Regain Control

The Colorado Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning play Game 4 of the 2021-22 Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday. Let’s dive into the game with our Avalanche-Lightning picks.

Colorado will get the opportunity to clinch the series and the Stanley Cup at home on Friday night if the club takes Game 4 on the road. However, the Lightning are still trying to claw their way back after a 6-2 win in Game 3.

Here are my Avalanche-Lightning picks and predictions for Wednesday’s NHL Stanley Cup Final matchup (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Avalanche vs. Lightning Game Info

Date/Time: Wednesday, June 22, 8 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL

Avalanche vs. Lightning Odds Analysis

This game opened at -110 for each side. The Avalanche have since taken 75% of the cash on just 40% of the tickets.

Both teams have suffered key injuries, and playing statuses are still in question. However, the line will remain within this range unless Lightning winger Nikita Kucherov is ruled out. If that happens, the Avalanche will become favorites.

The total sits at 6, and it's slightly juiced to the Over at -115. Expect the vig to keep climbing, as the Over hit in each of the first three games in this series.

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Avalanche vs. Lightning Picks

• Avalanche (-110 via DraftKings) ★★★★ 
• Over 6 (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★★ 
• Nathan MacKinnon to score (+164 via FanDuel) ★★★

Avalanche vs. Lightning Predictions

Avalanche (-110)

The home team has completely dominated this series. The Avalanche took both games at home, and the Lightning won Game 3 at Amalie Arena in dominant fashion.

Despite a 6-2 victory on Monday, the Lightning have been thoroughly outplayed in this series. Even their victory was a bit of a mirage.

The Avalanche hold a significant 61.54-38.46 split in Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5 as well as a 6.15-3.41 lead in expected goals (xGF%). Colorado also has 12 more high danger shot attempts than the Lightning at full strength.

The Avs nearly had a 2-0 lead in Game 3 before having a goal overturned due to offside. It was a near miss that swung momentum back to the Lightning.

Metrically, everything points back to the Avalanche winning Game 4 and grabbing the 3-1 series lead. Avs center Nazem Kadri is expected to return from a hand injury, and the Lightning will likely be without center Brayden Point (undisclosed) and maybe winger Nikita Kucherov (lower body).

Back the Avalanche to take a commanding series lead.

Over 6 (-115)

Each game in this series has exceeded the projected goal total. While it’s easy to blame the goaltending, it’s mostly been due to copious amounts of penalties and defensive breakdowns in the series.

Avalanche goaltender Darcy Kuemper may have wanted two goals back last time out, but his team largely let him down defensively, and there wasn’t much he could do – a case in point:

I'll go out on a limb and say leaving Steven Stamkos wide open in front of the net is NOT the best ideapic.twitter.com/qv4k3BLcJB

— BetMGM (@BetMGM) June 21, 2022

Yeah, that was Darcy’s fault.

Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy let in seven goals in Game 2, mainly due to the same reasons. While he has rightfully earned a pass, don’t forget he let in goals to Josh Manson and senior citizen Darren Helm due to defensive breakdowns.

The fact is that both teams have yet to find a way to contain one another, and the Avalanche's speed is a significant issue for Tampa Bay. This has led to more power-play time for their lethal unit.

I expect the Avalanche to find the back of the net a few times on Wednesday, and it’s likely we will see at least two goals from the Lightning.

Look for this game to cash the Over yet again.

MacKinnon to score (+164)

Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon is tied for the team lead with 11 postseason goals. However, he has yet to light the lamp in the Stanley Cup Final. 

The veteran sits second among playoff performers with 9.9 individual expected goals, and it's only a matter of time until he breaks loose, which I anticipate happening in Game 4.

Avs-Lightning Game 4 odds at @BetMGM

Moneyline
Avs -110
Lightning -110

Total 6 (under -115)

Spread
Avs -1.5 (+220)
Lightning +1.5 (-275)

— John Ewing (@johnewing) June 21, 2022

Where to Bet on Avalanche-Lightning Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Avalanche-Lightning picks made on 6/21/2022 at 4:13 p.m. ET.

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