Best Sports Picks Uncategorized

Another Deep Dive into Aaron Nola and why you have always been wrong about him in September

September 25, 2022
financialfreedomllc20

Aaron Nola was showing a little personality following the Phillies 9-1 win over Atlanta Friday.

He insisted the wind was aiding his pitches that exceed 95 MPH, some of his hardest thrown balls of the season. And then, after the interview was technically over and he was just being a little extra chatty with the media, he was comparing his two starts against the Braves – last week in Atlanta and Friday.

“Baseball’s a weird game,” he said. “You can have your best stuff in one start and still give up four runs and you might be a little off in the other and give up none.”

And that’s the thing about putting narratives together about players and teams based solely on outcomes. On the surface, the stats may tell one story, but beneath the numbers there’s always more information that maybe speaks more to the result than the overlying numbers do.

Yes, this is another deep dive into Nola. I did this once before, albeit in a different way, to try to argue his ace-worthiness.

The fan response to that story was mostly 50/50, with the loudest voices coming from the critics who insist the man can’t pitch in September.

So, that’s what today’s lesson in narrative-busting is all about.

I broke down Nola’s career in September with the hypothesis being they haven’t been as bad as you think they’ve been. I broke them down into good starts (Any start where he pitched into at least the sixth inning and yielded three earned runs or fewer, or, if fewer than five innings yielded one run or fewer.  Middle ground starts – starts that may have gone longer (6-7 innings) but yielded four runs, or, starts shorter than five innings with two or three earned runs. And bad starts, which is any start allowing four earned runs in fewer than five-plus innings or any start allowing five earned runs, or more, regardless of innings pitched.

In his career, Nola now has had 20 “Good Starts,” four “Middle Ground” starts and 11 “bad starts,” in September.

Wait… In eight years, Nola has had all of 11 bad starts in September? Meaning, on average, a little more than one per season?

That’s right.

In fact, if you go season-by-season, you’ll see where the bulk of them are too:

YEAR       GOOD       MIDDLE       BAD

2015           1                0                1

2016           0                0                0

2017          4                 0                1

2018          4                 0                2

2019          1                 1                3

2020          4                 1               1

2021          3                 1               2

2022         3                  1               0

 

So, only one season has he had more bad starts than good – 2019. Which, no doubt, was a bad September for Nola. And, if he gives the Phillies one more good start this year, he’ll have four good starts each September in four of the past six years.

So where does the narrative come from?

Easy – we look at small sample sizes and they tend to give us numbers that are a bit more extreme than reality on both sides of the coin.

For example, so far this season, Nola has a 2.08 ERA in four September starts. His WHIP is 1.11. Those are very good numbers for someone you rely on at the top of the rotation.

But, one of the starts was a rain-shortened, two-inning appearance, as such, he hasn’t even thrown 22 innings in four starts, which is low for a top of the rotation starter, so these are good numbers that might be a bit deceiving.

Conversely,  if you have a bad start, it truly inflates your numbers in small samples. Nola twice allowed six earned runs in a four inning start in September – once in his rookie year in New York against the Mets and once last year in Washington. Those two bad starts alone ballooned his overall September ERA by .36 points.

So, in order to really identify if this narrative about Nola is true, let’s go season-by-season and really break down his starts and determine if, in fact, he’s a bad September pitcher.

2015

In his first September start as a rookie, he gets pummeled in New York by the Mets. allowing six runs in four innings on nine hits and two home runs.

Six days later, he throws seven shutout innings in a home game against the Braves, allowing just six hits. The Phillies shut him down at that point, but he couldn’t have had two more disparate outings. Also, with only two starts, it’s hard to say he was good or bad, so this one we leave without a grade.

2016

Nola was injured and did not pitch in September. So, another N/A. Moving on.

2017

This was the year Nola broke out to prove he was a legit starter at the top of a rotation. His September didn’t start well, though. In his first start of the month, he yielded six earned runs on 10 hits in just five innings in a loss in Miami. But, from there, he was excellent.

He faced a very good Nationals team twice, and although he didn’t win either game (0-1), He only allowed two earned runs in each game, pitching a combined 11 1/3 innings striking out 17.

He avenged the loss in Miami by shutting down the Marlins at home 11 days later, giving up one run on four hits in seven innings, striking out 11. Finally, he had a solid win against the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing two runs on five hits in seven innings while fanning eight.

All told, this was a very good September with four excellent starts. And yet, one bad start at the beginning of the month left Nola with a 3.86 ERA in September, despite not allowing more than two runs in any of the other starts. Also, 43 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings? That’s a heck of a September. Chalk this one up as a good month for Nola.

2018

This is the year Nola made a push for the Cy Young Award, coming in third in the voting at the end of the year.

He basically carried the Phillies all year, who were winning early in the season with smoke and mirrors. But, as September approached, the Phillies started to swoon. By the time Nola took the mound on Sept. 2 in Chicago against the Cubs, the Phillies were already in a free fall. They had dropped 15-of-23 and went from being atop the N.L. East to being three back of the Braves in the Division and three back of the Brewers for the second and final wild card spot. Meanwhile, the Cubs had the best record in the National League, so this was going to be a tough matchup regardless.

It wasn’t a great start for Nola. He gave up four runs on five hits – three of which were home runs, as the ball was flying out of Wrigley Field – in 5 2/3 innings en route to an 8-1 loss. It was a stinging loss as Nola hadn’t allowed four runs in a game since mid-June and had not allowed more than one homer in a game all season.

The Phillies continued to flounder, dropping 2-of-3 in Miami and then headed to New York where they needed Nola to stop the bleeding as they were now 3 1/2 behind the Braves in the division and 4 1/2 behind the Cardinals for the wild card.

This time, their ace came through.

Nola went seven innings allowing three runs on three hits and struck out eight as the Phillies downed the Mets.

But, the win was fleeting, as the Phillies continued to spiral. They dropped the next four games, making their record 10-22 in the last 32 games. At this point, even their Cy Young candidate couldn’t save them. The Phillies had drifted 6 1/2 games out in both the division and wild card races.

Nola gave up another four runs on six hits (two more homers) in just five innings, including another two home runs, in a 5-1 loss to the Nationals.

From there the Phillies free fall continued. They ultimately would loose 33-of-49 to finish the season under .500 after being 15-games over in mid August. It was a stunning collapse.

But Nola didn’t completely collapse. He would have three more starts in the season. another against the Mets and two against the Braves. He allowed two runs or few in each start, including seven shutout innings against Atlanta in his final start. All told it was four runs on 12 hits and 23 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings.

In short, Nola did his part. His ERA was slightly elevate this month (3.72), but that’s because of the home runs. His good starts out-weighed the bad ones. Chalk this one up as another good month for Nola.

2019

This is where the consternation between fans and Nola truly reared its ugly head. With the signing of Bryce Harper and the trade for J.T. Realmuto, the Phillies expected to contend for the postseason after the collapse a year earlier.

But Nola wasn’t the same pitcher all year long, let alone in September.

It’s not that he was bad – he was 12-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. It just wasn’t as dominant as 2018.

Harper’s season was just OK and the Phillies hadn’t been in contention for the N.L. East since June. But, after a three-game winning streak to start September, the Phillies (72-65) were back within 2 1/2 games of the Cubs for the second wild card.

On Sept. 4, they turned to Nola against a woeful Cincinnati team – and he got rocked. Nola allowed five runs on five hits and three walks in just four innings, as the Phillies lost to the Reds 8-5. It was a game the Phillies needed and Nola didn’t come through.

A few days later, back home against Atlanta, the Phillies had closed the gap in the Wild Card race to two games, and again, Nola had a chance to vault the team forward, this time against the first place Braves.

He was better, but not good enough. He allowed four runs on six hits in six innings and the bullpen allowed the Braves to blow it open in the seventh inning of a 7-2 loss.

These two games mattered, and Nola didn’t live up to his expectation.

The Phillies continued to hang around in the wild card race, and by Nola’s next start, on Sept. 14 vs. Boston, they were still within 2 1/2 of the Cubs. Nola was sharp this time, holding the Red Sox to one run on four hits in seven inning while striking out nine.

But, the Phillies didn’t hit, and the bullpen again blew the game late, in another crushing defeat, a 2-1 loss to Boston.

Nola would get another crack at the Braves, five days after Boston, with the Phillies still just three back with 12 to play. And again, Nola wasn’t good.

He yielded five earned runs on nine hits in five innings of work and the Phillies never could overcome his deficits, in a 5-4 loss.

This all but sunk the Phillies. Nola would get one final start, in Washington, and it was also a clunker, but by that point is was all over but the shouting.

All told, September 2019 was a bad one for the Phillies, but especially Nola, who posted a 6.51 ERA for the month combined with a WHIP of 1.63. Fans had a right to be upset with Nola for these specific starts, but it’s also probably what fueled the narrative that he can’t pitch in September when, in fact, you’ll see 2020 and 2021 weren’t as bad as you might think.

2020

This season needs to start off with a caveat, and that is it never should be compared to another major league season, ever. It was 60 games. September games were treated like it was May. Some superstar players were terrible. Some role players had iconic seasons.

Oh, and there were no fans.

It was just odd. It was different. It probably never should have happened.

But it did, and the Phillies were a real enigma.

Yes, they technically were in the playoff race until the final day of the season, but only because MLB had expanded the playoffs to include eight teams in each league and secondarily, because of a 10-1 stretch from Aug. 23 to Sept. 4.

The Phillies would finish the 60-game season 28-32. So, take away that two week stretch of good baseball and they were a dreadful, 18-31. It’s a team that wasn’t prepared to compete, and for the most part, didn’t, hanging around solely because of the one stretch of games.

For Nola, September started as part of that 10-1 stretch. He pitched an absolute gem against Washington on September 1, throwing eight innings of two-hit, shutout baseball, striking out nine in the process.

His next start would come in New York against the Mets. Trailing the Braves by two games, but holding a two-game lead on the Wild Card, the Phillies faced a tall task with Nola matched up with Jacob deGrom.

deGrom was dominant. Nola, was not. He only allowed three earned runs, but his defense was shoddy behind him, and despite 10 strikeouts, Nola was lifted after 5 1/3 and the Mets clobbered the Phillies 14-1.

Nola would get a chance to redeem himself in his next start, the first game of a double-header against the Marlins on Sept. 11. The Phillies were maintaining a 2 1/2 game lead in the Wild Card and trailed the Braves for the division lead by three games with 20 to play.

And Nola was superb.

He threw a complete game, three-hit shutout, striking out 10. It was arguably his best September start, certainly his best since his final start of 2018. It was the kind of start where you felt confident this team was making the playoffs and Nola was back to 2018 form.

Then, reality set in.

On Sept. 17, Nola would again draw the Mets. This time the Mets beat him up good. Five runs, five hits, and an uncharacteristic, five walks in just 5 1/3 innings. The loss dropped the Phillies behind the Marlins in the standings and back under .500. But they still had a one game lead on Milwaukee for the final wild card and with 11 games to go, four of them started by Nola and Zack Wheeler.

On Sept. 22, Nola took the hill in Washington. The Phillies were back at .500, and although they weren’t catching the Braves for the division, but they entered play a 1/2 game ahead of Milwaukee and San Francisco for the final wild card spot and had a double header against the Nats.

After coughing up the first game, they desperately needed the win the nightcap to stay in a playoff spot. Nola pitched well, allowing three earned runs on on six hits in six innings. of work.

But the offense was nowhere to be found. The Phillies would lose 5-1. Nola would take the loss, and the heat from the fans, for not being able to win the big game. But how was this loss his fault? He pitched well enough to win.

Somehow, despite this crazy fall from grace in September, the Phillies could have forced a three-way tie for the final playoff spot with a win on the final day of the season and losses by both San Francisco and Milwaukee.

Well, the Brewers and Giants did their part, but the Phillies?

They were shutout.

Nola started the game. He only threw 3 2/3 innings and let in three runs, but this team was cooked. They had no life. NO energy. No desire to produce offense Again, blame Nola if you want, he barely pitched. The team, as a whole sucked.

It was a frustrating short season. Nola didn’t help in two starts, but he gave them three excellent starts in important games, and hung in there in a fourth.  His September ERA was 3.57, which is better than his career. His WHIP was 1.25, which was slightly higher than you’d expect form Nola, but still not bad. Is this evidence Nola can’t pitch in September? Nope. I give him the nod here too.

2021

The Phillies entered September on a little bit of a skid. Just a few weeks earlier, they were leading the NL East. Then, injuries to Rhys Hoskins and Zach Eflin, caused some chaos. Realmuto also was injured, but was playing hurt. Without pitching depth, the Phillies were forced to throw a bullpen game every fifth day. This put a lot of pressure on the remaining starters (Nola, Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Kyle Gibson).

Nola would pitch the first game of September in Washington and get lit up by the Nationals, as mentioned earlier in this post. The Phillies would stage a dramatic comeback and win this game, picking up Nola, and draw ever closer to a playoff spot.

Next up for Nola was a start in Milwaukee. The Phillies had closed the gap on both the Braves and Reds to one game. Nola had one of those “keep you in it” games. He only lasted five innings, because of a high pitch count, but only allowed three runs on six hits. However, the offense, after putting up a dozen runs on the Brewers the day before, was on the side of a milk carton. And the bullpen? Well, it imploded and allowed the Brewers to tack on seven more runs. Final score 10-0. Blame Nola? Hardly.

The Phillies started to flounder a bit, and by Nola’s next start, were back to being 2 1/2 games out of the wild card, and three out of the division. The Phillies were hosting the Rockies, who were a terrible road. team.

Nola struck out 10, and allowed three runs, pitching into the sixth inning. The score was tied late when the mother-bleeping bullpen blew another one. Rockies 5, Phillies 4. Fan blame on Nola (10 strikeouts mind you).

Back within 1 1/2 of the Braves and 2/12 of the Cardinals, Nola’s next start was at Citi Field in New York. Again, Nola would go into the sixth, allow just four hits and one run while striking out nine. It was a must win game, and the Phillies won it, thanks to Nola (and two homers from Jean Segura). The bullpen tried to choke it again, but held on this time, a 5-3 win.

From there the Phillies started to leak oil. They fell out of the wild card race and needed to sweep the Pirates to stay within striking distance of the Braves. Trailing Atlanta by 2 1/2, they turned to Nola against Pittsburgh.

This is one that a lot of fans probably forget, because the Phillies won, but this was the start in 2021 that Nola let the team down. He gave up six runs in the first three innings. He stayed in to pitch six innings and struck out eight, and even earned the win, but that’s because the offense, which is rarely there for Nola, picked him up and scored a dozen runs.

Yeah, it was a win, but it wasn’t pretty.

The Phillies would go on and lose the finale to Pittsburgh, meaning they had to sweep the Braves in Atlanta if they wanted any shot at the playoffs.

The Phillies would lose the first game of the series as Charlie Morton outpitched Zack Wheeler in a 2-1 Braves victory. It all but locked up the division for the Braves. Their magic number was down to three. The Phillies would need to win out and have the Braves drop 2-of-3 at home to the Mets to force a one game playoff for the N.L. East.

Nola started the next game of the series and gave the Phillies six solid innings allowing three runs. When he left the game, the Phillies were down one run, 3-2. The next inning the Braves scored four times off the beleaguered bullpen, and the season, was over.

The thing about 2021 is, Nola’s two bad starts, the Phillies won both of those games. He had three good starts, and the Phillies bullpen blew two of them. His one middle of the road start had the Phillies in striking distance until the bullpen melted down and it became a blowout loss.

This was not a bad September for Nola. Yeah, the ERA (6.00) looks uglier because of allowing six runs in each of the games the Phillies won big, but the games that mattered most, Nola pitched well-enough to win in 4-of-5. The Phillies won one of them.

Not his best September, but not so bad that you think he crumbles in this month. Slight edge to Nola.

Without counting 2015 or 2016 because there’s not enough, if any information, Nola has pitched well in four Septembers and poorly in one September (2019).

Assuming he doesn’t implode against the Cubs next week, 2022 is going to end up in this column too.

And, if his final two starts are on par with what he’s done so far this month, heck this season, his final numbers are going to be equal, or better than 2018, when he finished third in Cy Young voting.

With the exception of ERA. He’ll likely pitch more innings, Have an identical, or possibly better WHIP, Have more strikeouts, and have the best strikeout to walk ratio in the majors.

His WAR won’t be as good (it was 9.7 in 2018, and is 5.5 this season), but it’s currently the fourth best pitching WAR in baseball behind Sandy Alcantara, Dylan Cease and Max Fried and ahead of guys who get a lot of love this season – Shohei Ohtani, Justin Verlander, Alek Manoah, Max Scherzer and Carlos Rodon.

I’ve now spent more than 5,000 words in two posts talking about how good Nola is. How underappreciated he is and how the narratives about him are simply untrue.

I’ve relied on career numbers. I’ve relied on numbers in big games. I’ve relied on his record against good teams. I’ve relied on September numbers. I’ve relied on this season’s numbers. I’ve relied on what he doing currently.

I’ve given it all to you.

And if I still haven’t convinced you, then I guess I never will.

The post Another Deep Dive into Aaron Nola and why you have always been wrong about him in September appeared first on Crossing Broad.

https://www.crossingbroad.com/2022/09/another-deep-dive-into-aaron-nola-and-why-you-have-always-been-wrong-about-him-in-september.html

#fantasyfootball #Sports #Betting #sportsbetting #sportsbettingadvice #freepick #freepicks #sportsbettingtips #handicapping #predictions #sportspredictions #NFL #esports #espn #NBA #NHL #sportsprediction #ncaa #mlb #WNBA #prediction #nhl #nhlplayoffs #nhlpicks #nbapicks #NBAPlayoffs #NFLPlayoffs #espnsports #bettingsports #bettingtips #bettingonline #bettingexpert #basketball #football #soccer #hockey #sportspicks #ncaabasketball #foxsports #cbssports #soccerpredictions #sportingbet