Alvarez vs. Bivol Boxing Odds and Picks: Canelo Eyes Light Heavyweight Title

Canelo Alvarez returns to light heavyweight on Saturday in Las Vegas, where he’ll aim to become a two-time divisional champion at the expense of WBA titleholder Dmitry Bivol. Check out our Alvarez-Bivol picks ahead of this light heavyweight clash.

After running roughshod over the super middleweight heap, Canelo Alvarez will look to add a second light heavyweight strap to his growing collection of titles when he faces WBA king Dmitry Bivol in a marquee matchup on Saturday. Alvarez’s first divisional title came with a KO of Sergey Kovalev in late 2019. He was last seen battering Caleb Plant to become the world’s undisputed, pre-eminent super middleweight in November, the 11th-round stoppage bringing his pro record to an absurd 57-1-2.

Sharing the ring with Alvarez is Bivol, a longtime WBA champion who’ll look to keep his record unblemished in what will mark his 20th pro bout. The 31-year-old Russian last took the ring this past December, outpointing Umar Salamov on all three scorecards to defend his WBA crown. He now heads into the biggest fight of his career with 11 stoppages in 19 professional victories.

Will Alvarez give Bivol the Kovalev treatment, or will the WBA champion hand the challenger his first defeat in over eight years?

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s boxing matchup between Alvarez and Bivol (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Alvarez vs. Bivol Fight Info

Date/Time: Saturday, May 7, 11 p.m. ET
TV: DAZN PPV
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Alvarez vs. Bivol Odds Analysis

Being the more prolific and decorated pugilist of Saturday’s duel, Alvarez heads to Vegas a heavy favorite, with PointsBet listing him at a whopping -625. FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbook have the Mexican challenger at -490 and -475, respectively, and while there isn’t much value in such lines, a prop bet on a Canelo win on points is more attractive at -140 with DraftKings, Caesars Sportsbook, or FanDuel.

Those pining for Alvarez’s 40th career stoppage will find a +280 line at FanDuel, and bettors up for a lower-risk, high-reward bet on the WBA king, an upset for Bivol ranges from +350 (DraftKings) to +400 (PointsBet). As for lines on total rounds, Caesars Sportsbook has the Over/Under on 10.5 at -270/+205, which isn’t surprising, given that Alvarez finished Kovalev in the 11th round of his first light heavyweight title bid.

Updated Canelo Alvarez-Dmitry Bivol betting at @BetMGM

Line movement
@Canelo: -400 to -450
Bivol: +300 to +350
Tie: +2000 to +1800

Betting
Canelo: 53% of tickets, 86% of handle
Bivol: 26% of tickets, 6% of handle
Tie: 21% of tickets, 8% of handle

— John Ewing (@johnewing) May 6, 2022

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Canelo Alvarez Betting Profile

You’d never guess Alvarez and Bivol were the same age (31) by merely glancing at their records, as the former boasts three times the latter’s experience, with Alvarez having faced world-class competition longer than Bivol’s been a pro. Since suffering his only professional loss at Floyd Mayweather’s hands back in September 2013, Alvarez has cemented himself as the world’s pre-eminent middleweight and super middleweight, his runs in each of those divisions sandwiching his light heavyweight win over Kovalev. An awe-inspiring technician and dedicated body- and counter-puncher, I expect Alvarez to take the center of the ring, draw Bivol’s punches out, and counter upstairs and down in equal measure.

Dmitry Bivol Betting Profile

His record may be a fraction of the length of Canelo’s, but Bivol has been a world champion for over half his 19-fight career. The eight-year pro claimed an interim WBA title back in 2016, was promoted to reigning titleholder the following year, and has since defended his throne with unanimous verdicts against established light heavyweights like Jean Pascal and Joe Smith Jr., among many other challengers. A patient fighter who often works out of a wide stance, Bivol can throw comfortably off the back foot and in space, and isn’t averse to doubling and tripling up on his jab to set up his power right hand. Saturday’s showing will likely see Bivol do all of the above at different points throughout his dance with Alvarez.

Alvarez vs. Bivol Picks

• Alvarez to win (-475 via DraftKings) ★★★★
• Alvarez on points (-140 via DraftKings) ★★★

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Alvarez vs. Bivol Predictions

Alvarez to win (-475)

Undefeated he may be, but Bivol’s tape reveals little that will put Alvarez in grave danger come fight night. The defending champ packs a decent wallop, but he rarely ever works the body, and his footwork isn’t the cleanest, which makes him especially vulnerable to Canelo’s varied arsenal and faster hands. Being the smaller man, expect Alvarez to spend the early rounds sizing up the slower Bivol, after which he’ll begin walking the WBA champ down and repeatedly find a home for his patented left hook on both Bivol’s noggin and midsection en route to a W.

Alvarez on points (-140)

Impressive as his sparking of Kovalev was, Alvarez may well need all 12 rounds to become a repeat champion at light heavyweight. While Alvarez has dispatched 39 of his 57 victims before the final bell, Bivol has gone the distance in each of his last six and eaten shots from bigger men than Canelo. All this to say, I expect the challenger to chip away at Bivol against the ropes from the middle rounds onward and slow him down with his patented bodywork to become a two-time light heavyweight titleholder with a lopsided verdict on the scorecards.

Where to Bet Boxing Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Alvarez-Bivol picks made on 5/4/2022 at 11:22 p.m. ET.

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