2022 Players Championship Expert Picks and PGA Tour Bet Slips: Who’s the Favorite to Back?

The biggest non-major of the PGA Tour season is here and our golf betting experts break down the 2022 Players Championships with their top outright, matchup, and prop picks, plus some longshots to consider for TPC Sawgrass.

Justin Thomas is back in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, to defend his 2021 Players Championship. He’ll attempt to do so against one of the strongest fields in golf that includes 46 of the top 50 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).

Check out our Players Championship outright picks and props, before finalizing your betting card with our expert picks.

Players Championship Expert Picks

SEE ALSO: Players Championship Picks and Preview

Players Championship Picks to Win

Justin Thomas (+1500 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Justin Thomas was my top selection in my tournament preview on Monday and I’m doubling down with his odds rising from +1200 to +1500 at FanDuel. The defending champion at TPC Sawgrass has played a light schedule in 2022 consisting of just four events, in which he has three finishes of T-8 or better.

Thomas is third in this elite field among those with a minimum of 10 rounds played at TPC Sawgrass with 2.16 total strokes gained on the field per round. In addition to his win last year, he was T-11 in 2018 and T-3 in 2016. He led last year’s field with 3.22 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round, and he went 12-under par over the weekend en route to a -14 finish to win by one.

The +1500 at FanDuel is the best price of the week on Thomas. He’s +1000 at DraftKings and +1400 at most other books. - McLaren

Jon Rahm (+1300 via FanDuel)

This is a significant tournament, and I believe it will be won by one of the top players. If winning The Players wasn't prestigious enough, the prize purse stands at $20 million. At next week's Valspar Championship, there will be a purse of $7.8 million.

In every tournament he has participated in this year, Jon Rahm has been the favorite. On each occasion, his odds opened around +800. After leaving bettors disappointed on several occasions, his odds are now in the +1300 range. Although it may not seem like much, you are talking about a 38% increase in the price we are being offered on Rahm to win.

Rahm's season will no doubt disappoint you if you evaluate it solely by the number of wins and losses. Upon reviewing his statistics for the season, it becomes apparent he is the most effective ball striker on the PGA Tour, and it is not even close. He leads this field in SG: off-the-tee and approach. It is his putter that has prevented him from winning.

Each year, Rahm has improved his finishing spot at The Players, finishing T-9 last year. At TPC Sawgrass, he has averaged 1.64 SG: total across 16 career tournament rounds. If Rahm's putter begins to cooperate, he is likely to run away with some tournaments.

With the odds on Rahm rising to +1300 this week, he is at the top of my list of buys for The Players Championship. At DraftKings, he is much shorter than at FanDuel, where he has odds of +1000. - Metler

Brooks Koepka (+4000 via PointsBet)

The demise of Brooks Koepka has been severely overstated.

Koepka is in solid form heading into The Players Championship despite the negative perception. He finished T-3 at the WM Phoenix Open and after a missed cut at The Genesis Invitational, he tied for 16th at the arduous Honda Classic – where he gained 0.81 strokes per round on approach and 0.51 off the tee.

He recently lamented the fact that he's fallen to No. 18 in the world rankings and is a well-known big-game hunter. The purse at The Players this weekend is huge, with $3.6 million going to the winner. 

Koepka looks to be healthy again and loves playing in Florida. At this number, in an event with a major-like feel, look for him to be in contention and re-establish himself as one of the best in the world. - Anderson

Players Championship Longshot Picks

Lee Westwood (+21000 via FanDuel)

The now-48-year-old Englishman and former world No. 1 had a resurgent start to the 2021 calendar year. Lee Westwood had back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship, but he failed to record another top-10 finish the rest of the year.

However, he has made five straight cuts internationally to start 2022. He comes off a T-68 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but with a disastrous final round of +7, 79. It was a woeful putting performance all week, but he gained 0.88 strokes per round off the tee. He averaged 1.55 SG: putting on these greens last year.

Other books are offering +15000 on Westwood to win this week. We’re wise to sprinkle on the added value offered by FanDuel for the elder statesman. Five of the previous eight winners of this event were once ranked No. 1 in the world prior to their victory at TPC Sawgrass. - McLaren

Tom Hoge (+15000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tom Hoge is already a winner on the PGA Tour this season with his victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. While defeating Jordan Spieth by two strokes, Hoge finished the tournament at -19.

As a longshot at The Players, Hoge brings multiple angles to the table this week. The first is that he has been one of the top iron players on the PGA Tour this season. Hoge has averaged 0.92 SG: approach through 15 events. In his approach, he is gaining more strokes than golfers such as Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, and Cameron Smith.

In addition, Hoge has had tremendous success at TPC Sawgrass and has improved his placing every year he has played here. Hoge has played 12 rounds at TPC Sawgrass and averages 1.25 SG: total.

Last but not least, Hoge is presenting a great price shopping opportunity for bettors this week. By offering us a price of +15000, DraftKings drastically undervalues his current form. PointsBet is offering Hoge at just +8000, so this isn't a consensus price. I believe Hoge's +15000 odds are too long, and I intend to take advantage of them. - Metler

Jhonattan Vegas (+21000 via FanDuel)

This is an exceptionally long number on a player who has seen success at this event prior - two top-10 finishes and only one missed cut. 

After posting a T-8 at the highly competitive Saudi International last month, Jhonattan Vegas is in solid form and has shown flashes of brilliance in the past. 

You could do a lot worse at this number or Top-20/40 markets. - Anderson

SEE ALSO: Players Championship Prop Picks

Players Championship Top Matchup Picks

Collin Morikawa (+112) vs. Jon Rahm (via FanDuel)

Collin Morikawa is a significant underdog against Jon Rahm in a matchup of the second- and first-ranked golfers in the world, respectively. Rahm is more experienced at TPC Sawgrass and tied for ninth last year while Morikawa finished T-41, but they both average slightly better than 1.60 total strokes gained on the field per round for their career at this venue.

Morikawa also has rest on his side, as he has yet to play on the PGA Tour’s Florida swing since a T-2 finish at The Genesis Invitational in California. Rahm tied for 17th last week while losing strokes on and around the greens. Rahm’s iron play was in great shape last week but Morikawa can win that battle against any golfer at any venue more often than not.

Morikawa can claim the top spot in the OWGR with a win this week. These odds will reverse in future tournaments if he does, so we can go ahead and take the plus money while it’s offered for possibly the last time until at least the Masters. - McLaren

Tommy Fleetwood (-110) vs. Jordan Spieth (via DraftKings)

As much as it is a wager on Tommy Fleetwood, this wager is also a fade of Jordan Spieth. I consider Spieth to be a golfer who consistently performs well on the same golf courses each season. In that regard, he reminds me a lot of Bubba Watson.

Sadly for Spieth, TPC Sawgrass is not one of the courses where he has enjoyed success in the past. Spieth has had quite the opposite experience. He missed the cut three times in his last five appearances at The Players.

The other side of this matchup features Fleetwood, who has previously enjoyed success at TPC Sawgrass. Though he missed the cut last season, Fleetwood is still averaging 1.58 SG: total at TPC Sawgrass. In 2018 and 2019, Fleetwood recorded back-to-back top 10 finishes at The Players.

Spieth's brand bias keeps this price at -110 each way; however, based on the statistics, Fleetwood appears to be the better pick. In this matchup at The Players, I will take Fleetwood all day long. I would not be surprised if Spieth missed the cut again. - Metler

Sungjae Im (+100) vs. Billy Horschel (via DraftKings)

There's no doubt Billy Horschel enters in fantastic form fresh off a T-2 at the API, but I'm inclined to take Sungjae Im here. 

Last year at this event, Im posted two rounds off 66 or better; the only player to do so besides Thomas. 

TPC Sawgrass requires a strong, well-rounded game, which Im possesses. Over the last 36-rounds on tour, Im ranks in the top 25 in SG: driving accuracy, ball striking, and short game. He has also perennially excelled in Florida on these Bermudagrass greens.

Im has a win and three top-10 finishes in his past 10 starts, and we should expect him to continue his strong play this week. - Anderson

SEE ALSO: Masters Picks

Players Championship Top Prop Picks

Nearest the 17th pin in Round 1: Russell Henley vs. Mackenzie Hughes and Thomas Pieters (+186 via FanDuel)

One of the most famous holes in the U.S., the par 3 17th at TPC Sawgrass measures just 137 yards and features an island green. It played to a scoring average of 3.227 last year and saw just 80 birdies carded against 62 bogeys, 37 doubles, and 11 others.

Russell Henley missed the cut in each of his last three appearances at The Players Championship and has averaged just 0.54 strokes gained on the field for his career at this venue. However, he’s tied for 10th on Tour this season in par 3 efficiency: 125-150 yards. Mackenzie Hughes is tied for 80th by that measure and Thomas Pieters hasn’t played enough rounds to qualify.

Take the shot with Henley, who also leads this trio in SG: approach from any distance this season. - McLaren

Top Rest of World: Corey Conners (+1400 via DraftKings)

Corey Conners had an impressive performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. He managed to finish T-11 on a course that was extremely difficult. For the second year in a row, Conners is hoping to make the most of the Florida swing. He also performed very well at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship last season.

Last season, Conners won this prop with a score of -10 at The Players. In nine rounds played at TPC Sawgrass, Conners has averaged 2.25 SG: total. Last year, Conners finished seventh at The Players, gaining strokes in all major categories.

The +1400 price point that DraftKIngs offers on this Conners prop is very attractive to me. According to his current form and course history, I believe this number is a bit too high. PointsBet is offering Conners at a price of +1200 for this same proposition. - Metler

Top-20: Sergio Garcia (+290 via FanDuel)

Sergio Garcia won this event in 2008 and has yet to miss the cut in 17 trips to TPC Sawgrass. He owns four other top-3 finishes and seven top-10s. At nearly 3-1 odds, it's hard to pass up someone with such strong course history. - Anderson

Picks to Fade

Sam Burns

Sam Burns is priced around +5000 to win this week. While those odds could seem appealing for the 17th-ranked golfer in the world, I still have little interest. Burns has just three rounds played at TPC Sawgrass with an average of 3.90 strokes lost to the field per round. 

Burns lost strokes in all key areas in this event last year. He lost 0.31 strokes around the greens last week at Bay Hill in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and that’s not a promising sign as he returns to a venue where he lost 2.80 strokes around the greens last year. - McLaren

Xander Schauffele

Considering Xander Schauffele's current price point of +2500, I have no interest in backing him this week. The field at The Players is stacked, and Schauffele missed the cut in each of his last two appearances. To consider backing Schauffele this week, I would need a much longer price.

As well as missing cuts at The Players, he has not won a PGA Tour tournament for over three years. While I do not dislike Schauffele, I believe he is trading at a very low number to be considered as a play this week.

Although I wouldn't go so far as to say he will miss the cut, I am not interested in the +2500 outright ticket. - Metler

Jon Rahm

I'll continue fading Rahm at these short numbers despite him being the best player on the planet right now – but at these odds, it's hard to back a player who doesn't own a significant amount of win equity. 

He is a top-10 machine but hasn't won since the U.S. Open last summer and struggled last week at the API, finishing T-17.

Instead, I'll hope for a rocky start and jump in live at a better price on the Spaniard. 

As we know, he can climb the leaderboard in a hurry when he puts things together. - Anderson

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

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