2022 NFL Draft Props: Borg & Betz (Fantasy Football)

Kyle and I took on the 2021 NFL Draft from a wagering perspective and spent several DFS Podcasts last offseason talking about the Draft from a prop betting perspective. Overall, this was a great learning experience and a ton of fun! We’re taking the plunge early this year and will be sure to update this article with each bet we personally make. Of course, we’ll also be talking about the NFL Draft on multiple DFS shows over the course of March and especially April, so make sure you’re subscribed on your favorite podcast platform.

The 2022 NFL Draft kicks off on April 28th. As the days and weeks go by, more and more NFL Draft props will become available across a variety of sportsbooks. We recommend shopping around for the best lines and prices whenever possible.

General Strategy and Thoughts

• Betting NFL Draft props will not make you rich – This is a relatively soft market and honestly, a bit of a niche market. Books are very willing to take on thousands and thousands of dollars (even millions at times) on NFL lines and totals because they’re extremely efficient lines and Vegas knows they’re going to win in the long term. Most books will set a limit on the amount of money you can place on a prop bet and that includes the NFL Draft.
• This market is fluid and is sure to change – Unlike NFL spreads and totals, where we may only see things shift by a point or two, the odds and values of these props will change drastically over a couple of months. We recommend viewing this process as a market and being willing to adjust as necessary. At times, it might even make sense to bet the same prop but with a different player, if you think the market has moved enough in the wrong direction.
• Build a portfolio – It’s certainly possible to win a few wagers if you’re only betting a handful, but because this market is so fluid, there’s going to be inefficiencies all over the place. For example, there might be value in a bet right now in February that no longer has value in April. Similarly, new information might become available in March that wasn’t available in February, and now the bet you just placed a month ago looks off. Don’t get take lock – adjust!
• Be sure to shop around at multiple books if you’re able – If you live in a state with legalized wagering that offers multiple books, be sure to try to find the best odds, prices, and even types of wagers that are available. Because this is a niche market, it’s difficult for books to wrap their heads around a market that might adjust day to day and week to week by the time mid-April gets here.
• Have fun! – We think there’s real value in being profitable in this market because it’s difficult for the books to keep up with all the changing news, mock drafts, Combine and Pro Day reports, etc. If you’re able to follow the news relatively closely, we think it’s possible to put a little extra money in your account. But, that the same time, understand that a lot of this information is not known to even the most plugged-in NFL reporters. Remember the Mac Jones vs. Justin Fields to the 49ers saga last year? Don’t be afraid to get off the board and have fun with this over the next several weeks.

NFL Draft Props We’ve Bet

**Lines accurate at time of publishing**

1. Evan Neal to be Selected 1st Overall (+150), DraftKings SportsBook

Date: 2/23/22
Analysis: According to GrindingTheMocks.com, which sources mock drafts from across the internet, Evan Neal has the lowest ADP at 1.9. In both of Daniel Jeremiah’s mock drafts thus far, he’s got Neal going 1st overall to the Jaguars, which is consistent with several mock drafts across the industry. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has Ikem Ekwonu out of NC State going first in his Mock 1.0 from mid-January but he states, “several evaluators agreed that in a draft class missing a no-brainer top prospect, they prefer the tackles over the pass rushers.” From a real-life NFL perspective, we think it makes all the sense in the world for the Jags to continue to build up their offensive line and protect Trevor Lawrence after an abysmal rookie season. This has now moved to +120 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so we’re pretty excited that this one is moving in our favor. We feel there’s still value in the +120 as of now as we project the line to continue to move towards Neal going #1 to the Jags based on recent trends in the Mock Draft industry.