Jabari Smith Jr., formerly of Auburn, has maintained his status as the favorite to be selected first overall by the Orlando Magic in the upcoming NBA Draft. We take a look at the 2022 NBA Draft markets and the odds associated with a number of players with our top picks.
The Orlando Magic have the first overall pick and it is still unclear who they intend to select. Jabari Smith Jr. is the favorite, but we have seen substantial movement in the odds for Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero in recent days.
We track the odds movement and offer some of our best value picks ahead of the 2022 NBA Draft as bettors continue to build their portfolios.
NBA Draft Best Bets
- First overall pick: Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga (+2200 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Second overall pick: Jaden Ivey, Purdue (+4200 via FanDuel)
- Draft position: Mark Williams Under 13.5 (+170 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
- To be drafted in the top 10: Williams (+750 via PointsBet)
NBA Draft Bets: First Overall Pick
In this market, my biggest takeaway is that the Magic are still undecided on who to draft. It has resulted in several moves in this market over the last few weeks, most recently on Paolo Banchero. At one point, Banchero was priced as high as +2700 to be the first overall pick and now his price has dropped to +135 at PointsBet.
The sportsbooks have struggled to determine which player should be the favorite between Smith and Banchero, but the odds seem to be trending toward the latter. When Holmgren was in that +120 range, I was not extremely interested in buying futures on him, however as he begins to move back up to +2200 and perhaps even a higher price point as we approach the draft, I may have to jump in.
Given the current state of the pricing, Holmgren definitely offers the best value with his odds when compared to Smith, and Banchero.
NBA Draft Bets: Second Overall Pick
As we approach the NBA draft, I continue to disagree with the pricing in this market. We have a tendency to assume that the Oklahoma City Thunder will automatically draft Holmgren if the Magic do not, but I don’t believe that is the case. Holmgren should be given the shortest odds, but -500 is excessive.
I have made it very clear that I favor the Thunder drafting Jaden Ivey at this position. We have seen Ivey get as low as +1800 in this market, however, after recent adjustments to the first overall market, Ivey has been pushed back to +4200 by FanDuel.
Banchero has made it clear he is not interested in playing for the Thunder and OKC has been enamored with Ivey. With this information out there, I find it mind-blowing that Banchero can be priced at +500 and Ivey at +4200.
NBA Draft Bets: Third Overall Pick
It has been fascinating to watch the lack of movement in this market over the past few days. Although Banchero moved from +2700 to +135 to be the first overall pick, he remains a -360 favorite to be the third overall selection. How can Banchero move 25 dollars in the first overall market and maintain his position as a -360 favorite to go third?
Odds Movement: Paolo Banchero 1st Overall Pick
Saturday: +2000
Sunday: +1200
Monday: +400
Today: +220
pic.twitter.com/6yg2Eitjsi
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) June 21, 2022
If the Magic were to select Banchero as the first overall pick, I believe Holmgren would be a strong contender for third overall with the Houston Rockets. In the event that the rumors of Banchero to the Magic heat up, I would check this market for Holmgren’s prices instead of rushing to purchase bets on Banchero.
NBA Draft Bets: Fourth Overall Pick
It was only a few days ago that Ivey was priced at -400 to be the fourth overall selection. Ivey actually moved all the way to +100 on Tuesday afternoon to be selected as the fourth overall pick. Ivey’s price has been shortened again, but nowhere near the -400 we saw previously.
In my opinion, Ivey has not moved from -400 to +100 because the Sacrmanto Kings will not take him or trade the pick to someone who will. I believe Ivey’s odds moved because he will not be available at No. 4 in the draft. This movement in the odds only reinforces my belief that Ivey will be selected at No. 2.
In the event Ivey is drafted in the top three, one of Smith, Banchero, or Holmgren would fall to the Kings. Caesars Sportsbook offers odds as high as +9000 for Smith to be selected fourth overall, while FanDuel offers odds of +10000 for Banchero.
NBA Draft Bets: Fifth Overall Pick
We have seen a substantial move on Bennedict Mathurin in the fifth overall market, and I believe that this correlates to my views on Ivey. Mathurin has been heavily linked to the Detroit Pistons lately because I believe they know that Ivey will not be available at No. 5.
Mathurin was as high as +3000 to be the fifth overall pick at DraftKings a couple of weeks ago, and we are now seeing him as low as +140 at Caesars. Unless you already have a Mathurin ticket at a higher price, I would not get involved in this market. The most recent changes to Mathurin’s odds have reduced the value of this wager. The recent trade of Jerami Grant to the Portland Trail Blazers may affect how the Pistons approach this draft with the fifth overall selection.
NBA Draft: Draft Position
Williams Under 13.5 (+170 via DraftKings)
The +170 price point that DraftKings is offering on the Under for Mark Williams’ draft position is too high. With most other sportsbooks offering only +140, you are receiving an additional 30 cents by placing this bet at DraftKings.
In addition to the favorable price being offered by DraftKings, I believe Williams will sneak into the top 10 of this draft. In the event he does not do so, there are three teams — the New York Knicks, Thunder, and Charlotte Hornets — which are in serious need of someone with his skill set who will be drafting between 11 and 13.
NBA Draft: To Be Drafted in The Top 10
Williams (+800 via PointsBet)
With mock drafts continuing to place Williams at either No. 13 or No. 15 to the Hornets, you are seeing a very high plus price on Williams to be a top-10 pick.
With superstar talent declining after the top four, teams will be looking to fill roles at the back end of the top 10. With his 7-foot-7 wingspan, Williams brings to the NBA a very specific skill set that is highly coveted by all teams.
With a +800 line, PointsBet indicates that Williams has an 11.76% chance of being selected in the top 10. In my opinion, it is much higher than this, and for this reason I am betting on this prop for Williams.
When/Where is the 2022 NBA Draft?
Where is the NBA draft?
Brooklyn, NY
When is the NBA draft?
Thursday, June 23, at 8 p.m. ET
How to watch the NBA draft
ABC and ESPN will air the first and second rounds of the NBA draft.
Number 1 Overall Pick History
Where to Bet on the 2022 NBA Draft
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
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2022 NBA Draft picks made on 6/23/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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