2022 MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Picks, and Preview: Can Alonso Pull Off The Three-Peat?

Some of Major League Baseball’s best power hitters will put on a show on Monday in Los Angeles at the 2022 Home Run Derby. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our most confident wagers for the 2022 Home Run Derby.

New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso is looking to make history at this year’s event, as he tries to join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only three-time derby winners. Alonso also has an opportunity to become the first-ever player to win the event three straight times, as Griffey and Yoenis Cespedes won the event in back-to-back years but couldn’t pull off the elusive three-peat.

The Home Run Derby has afforded many more betting opportunities since switching to a head-to-head bracket format, as bettors can now wager on individual matchups. However, we’re simply identifying our two best bets to be crowned Home Run Derby champion.

Here are our best bets for Monday’s 2022 Home Run Derby (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

2022 Home Run Derby Info

Date: Monday, July 18, 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN (U.S.), Sportsnet (Canada)
Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA

2022 Home Run Derby Odds

2022 Home Run Derby Odds Analysis

It is no surprise to see Pete Alonso as the favorite with odds ranging from +150 to +200 odds. Alonso is the No. 2 seed only because Schwarber has more regular-season home runs thus far.

Meanwhile, also unsurprisingly, Pujols has by far the longest odds at +2400 despite owning the most experience. Pujols is entering his sixth Home Run Derby (first since 2015), and his 685 career home runs are the most by any past derby participant. In fact, Barry Bonds is the only other player ever to participate in a Home Run Derby with more than 600 career home runs at the time.

2022 Home Run Derby Best Bets

• Kyle Schwarber (+330)
• Juan Soto (+600)

2022 Home Run Derby Top Picks

Schwarber (+330)

Schwarber’s 29 home runs this season make him the No. 1 seed at the derby. He has 18 long balls since June 1, which coincided with the team’s managerial change to Rob Thomson, and his hot streak earned him Player of the Month honors for June. Schwarber has hit 27 of his 29 home runs to center and right field, and though Dodger Stadium slightly favors right-handed hitters, his swing is perfect for the event.

Schwarber can draw on his past derby experience, as he lost a tightly contested final to Bryce Harper 19-18 in 2018. He knows how to navigate the head-to-head format, and his 55 home runs in the 2018 derby were the seventh-most in a single derby of all time.

By drawing Albert Pujols in the first round, we are banking on Schwarber expending much less energy than his competitors, as we do not expect Pujols to hit many bombs at age 42. Thus, Schwarber has an advantage of going second, as he can end his round as soon as he edges Pujols’ number.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Soto (+600)

A wager on Soto is a hedge on our Schwarber bet, as the two are on the same side of the bracket.

Soto’s .250 batting average is lower than many would have expected from him thus far. However, from a power standpoint, he's come on strong of late with four home runs in his last 10 games. He has five home runs in July, and his 520-foot bomb in last year’s derby is the longest home run in the event of the Statcast era. That's important considering participants get bonus time in their rounds for homers of 440-plus feet.

At +600 odds, Soto is being overlooked despite hitting 22 homers in the first round of last year’s derby when he beat Shohei Ohtani in a swing-off.

Soto benefits from drawing No. 5 seed Jose Ramirez in the first round, as the Guardians slugger is just the 22nd switch hitter to ever participate in the derby. Only five of the previous switch hitters have advanced past the first round, and only one went on to win.

Soto has power to all fields (five to left, five to center, nine to right this season). Though he lost 16-15 to Alonso in the second round last year, he'll be much more prepared to face the Mets slugger if he meets him in the finals.

For his part, Alonso draws Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna Jr. in the first round. If Acuna upsets Alonso, Soto’s path to a victory may not be as difficult as it could be.

Previous Home Run Derby Winners

• 2021: Pete Alonso
• 2020: N/A
• 2019: Pete Alonso
• 2018: Bryce Harper
• 2017: Aaron Judge
• 2016: Giancarlo Stanton
• 2015: Todd Frazier
• 2014: Yoenis Cespedes
• 2013: Yoenis Cespedes
• 2012: Prince Fielder
• 2011: Robinson Cano
• 2010: David Ortiz

Where to Bet on 2022 Home Run Derby Bets

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Home Run Derby odds and best bets from 7/17/2022 at 4:18 p.m. ET.

The post 2022 MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Picks, and Preview: Can Alonso Pull Off The Three-Peat? appeared first on Picks.