Yankees vs. Athletics: Cole-Hearted

Gerrit Cole and Sean Manaea make the Over a decent MLB pick this Friday when the New York Yankees visit the Oakland Athletics.

New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics

Friday, August 27, 2021 – 09:40 PM EDT at Oakland Coliseum

Trevor Bauer was right about Gerrit Cole. Former teammates and starting pitchers at UCLA, Bauer often had the edge over the more highly touted Cole – until Spider Tack happened. Cole still hasn’t formally admitted to using the substance, or anything else untoward to improve his grip, but his numbers improved substantially in 2018, prompting accusations of cheating from Bauer. The thing is, Bauer apparently relented and started using this stuff the same year, and saw a similar boost in his own performance level.

Anyway, it’s all moot now that Major League Baseball has dropped the hammer on sticky substances. Both Cole and Bauer have seen their spin rates drop dramatically; however, after a rough patch in June, Cole is pitching better than ever, posting a 2.28 FIP since the All-Star break. So why aren’t we recommending Cole and the smoking-hot New York Yankees for Friday’s MLB picks when they visit the Oakland Athletics?

O-Town

Because there isn’t any betting value there. The fine folks at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) just opened New York as –141 favorites on their MLB odds board, while FiveThirtyEight projects the Yankees to win 58 percent of the time, or –138 according to the wondrous SBR Odds Converter. The A’s aren’t chump change, and they’ve got a pretty good starting pitcher of their own in Sean Manaea (3.66 FIP), whose spin rate didn’t suffer nearly the same precipitous drop as Cole’s.

Things have gone south for Manaea, though. Three of his last four starts were train wrecks, and the Over is 4-1 in his last five, which makes us think the Over might have some legs for Friday’s matchup as well. It might seem a bit counter-intuitive with Cole taking the mound, but he’s only pitched twice since spending nearly three weeks on the COVID-19 list, putting the boots to the mediocre-hitting L.A. Angels and Minnesota Twins. How will he perform against Oakland, who rank seventh overall in hitting value (plus-19.2 WAR) at FanGraphs?

Rizzo In The Hizzo

For that matter, Manaea should have his hands full with the Yankees, who rode an 11-game winning streak into Thursday’s series-opener. Injuries have taken their toll on New York’s batting order this year – much like last year – but almost everyone is back in the lineup now. They’ll presumably be even better once 1B Anthony Rizzo (.691 OPS) and LF Joey Gallo (.653 OPS) get accustomed to their new surroundings.

It’s hard to say just how much potential profit margin there is on the Over, especially with Oakland Coliseum hosting this game, so we’re not going to recommend more than a small bet here at the home office. But there’s a manageable total of eight runs on Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) MLB lines, with the vig at +105 for the Over, so let’s see if the Yankees can put Manaea through the shredder – and if Cole’s bark is indeed worse than his bite.

MLB Pick: Over 8 (+105) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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