There’s only one event that compares to WrestleMania when it comes to wagering on professional wrestling: the Royal Rumble.
The first of WWE’s “big four” pay-per-views each year, Vince McMahon’s promotion held the 34th Royal Rumble on Sunday, setting the stage for 2021’s “road to WrestleMania.”
Before we breakdown the action, here are a few basic facts about the Royal Rumble:
- The Royal Rumble matches are 30-person battle royales. They start with two competitors in the ring, with a new entrant coming to the ring approximately every two minutes. The only way to be eliminated is to be thrown over the top rope and have one’s feet hit the ringside floor. The last person standing wins.
- The Royal Rumble features a mix of talent from all three WWE brands (Smackdown, Raw, and NXT) as well as a handful of surprise entrants each year. There are almost always wrestling legends included in the action, though they rarely win (except this year!).
- The winner of the Royal Rumble gets to challenge for the WWE championship of their choice at WrestleMania.
This article was originally titled “Best WWE Royal Rumble Value Bets,” and completed before Sunday’s Royal Rumble. Naturally, shortly after catching up on Raw and SmackDown episodes from the past month and finishing detailed breakdowns of each match, along with picks and predictions, everything got turned on its head.
- Mia Yim, a women’s competitor and the significant other of one of the favorites to win the men’s Rumble (Keith Lee), tested positive for COVID, taking them both off the card.
- The WWE also announced who would be starting in slots 1 and 2 for Sunday’s 30-person battle royal after Friday’s SmackDown show, significantly altering the event’s conditions for bettors.
So, I was forced to repeatedly rewrite this page until it was suddenly too late to be a predictions article. After all, the first draft had about 800 words about why Keith Lee was a solid bet to win it all!
(It was all especially upsetting because I was looking forward to following-up my perfect 6-for-6 performance at Survivor Series!)
Given the circumstances, I figured we might as well recap what happened on Sunday, discuss what the outcomes tell us about pro wrestling handicapping overall and consider how it all fits into WrestleMania, the most prestigious WWE event – especially for professional wrestling bettors – of the year!
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The Royal Rumble PPV’s Title Matches
In addition to the two Royal Rumbles, the PPV featured several championship matches. The Raw Women’s Tag Team titles were on the line Sunday, as were the men’s Raw and Smackdown belts and the SmackDown women’s championship.
Asuka and Charlotte Flair (c) vs. Nia Jax and Shayna Baszler
At –200 odds, picking Nia Jax and Shayna Baszler to take the Raw women’s tag titles off Asuka and Charlotte Flair was one of the most predictable bets of the evening – and possessed decent value. Charlotte and Asuka are top-tier talents who are always in the mix for their brand’s singles championship (Asuka is the current champion).
Who Will Win?
- Matchup Odds
- Asuka and Charlotte Flair+160
- Nia Jax and Shayna Baszler -200
Their pairing and subsequent winning of the tag team titles is a familiar professional wrestling storyline. It’s similar to The Mega Powers, which featured Hulk Hogan and Macho Man Randy Savage in their respective primes.
You take two of your best wrestlers, give them a common enemy – despite their individual ambitions – and they form a shaky alliance that’s inevitably held together by holding the belts. Usually, the two teammates feud at the end of their championship tenure – though that doesn’t appear to be the case with Charlotte and Asuka.
If professional wrestling were a legitimate sport, an alliance like Charlotte Flair and Asuka would be nearly unstoppable. Think of them like super teams in the NBA. When LeBron James joins forces with Anthony Davis or Dwayne Wade, championships are inevitable.
In the WWE, these pairings only last long enough to setup both participants’ next storyline.
It was obvious coming into the Royal Rumble that the Asuka-Flair combo had run its course. Charlotte’s father, wrestling GOAT Ric Flair, has been managing another woman named Lacey Evans in recent weeks, much to his daughter’s chagrin.
The most likely outcome was Lacey and Ric and distracting Charlotte, costing her team the titles. And that’s precisely what happened. If the writers involve one member of the championship tag team in a side angle (wrestling lingo for storylines), you can bet they’re breaking up at the next PPV.
This match was the perfect opportunity to capitalize on WWE’s predictability, even if you had to stake two dollars for every one dollar won.
The Betting Lines on this Page Provided by MyBookie!
Drew McIntyre (c) vs. Goldberg
The second-most betting value offered to Royal Rumble bettors was for Raw’s WWE Championship, defended by Drew McIntyre.
In recent years, Goldberg’s made a habit of showing up to challenge champions and steamroll talent in their prime, totally derailing their momentum in yet another “ode to the past.”
However, this time, there were signs of a “swerve” — pro wrestling for “misdirection” — coming. The writers wanted fans prematurely angry in anticipation of the old WCW legend spamming his two finishing moves in another four-minute squash match over a beloved champion with legitimate “star” potential.
Who Will Win?
- Matchup Odds
- Drew McIntyre -300
- Goldberg +200
Goldberg has previously returned to upset Brock Lesner (people enjoyed this one – the first real return of the WCW Goldberg), steamroll Kevin Owens, and utterly derail Bray Wyatt’s up-to-that-point borderline-invincible monster character, The Fiend.
Drew called out the recent pattern of the 54-year-old well-past-his-prime (not that he was an incredibly skilled wrestler at his peak) legend showing up out of the blue to take the title from younger talent.
Once he acknowledged this recurring theme, you could safely assume it wouldn’t be happening again. If the WWE is teasing the possibility of repeating a story the fans have been voicing opposing, you can bet it’s a swerve.
Pay close attention to the promos leading up to a major match. Wrestling writers always try to obscure their plans – which, in and of itself, can make things predictable. If they hint at an outcome fans would hate based on recent complaints, they’ll almost always tease that finish before going the other way.
In addition to McIntyre vs. Goldberg, both Royal Rumble results were good examples of this. Fans are tired of Charlotte Flair winning at the expense of young stars on the rise. The writers made sure she was one of the final three in the ring with Bianca Belair and Rhea Ripley, both considered the future of the women’s division.
Similarly, in the men’s Rumble, the WWE teased an old cliché of the heel faking an injury and disappearing for most of the match, only to return at the last second – never having been eliminated – to steal it from an exhausted and deserving babyface. They had Orton do just that, only to be thwarted by Edge anyway.
Online, fans were already seething over the Viper’s inevitable “surprise” return when they flipped the trope on its head.
When they’re going with what’s destined to be an unpopular decision, they don’t telegraph it; they give the “WWE universe” (how Vince McMahon insists performers always refer to the fans) hope that their preference will overcome the promotion’s frequently awful writing.
As expected, Drew McIntyre versus Goldberg was another short sprint match with both men relying on their finishing moves almost exclusively. This time, the quinquagenarian was rightfully beaten.
Despite the 3-to-1 odds, this wager offered excellent value, as it was basically a sure-thing.
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Sasha Banks (c) vs. Carmella (with Reginald)
Sasha Banks has a horrible history of title defenses at pay-per-view events. Regardless, she was so clearly going to defeat Carmella at the Royal Rumble, MyBookie didn’t even offer a betting line for this match.
Professional wrestling is predetermined, so ridiculous upsets do happen, despite how the characters are portrayed before a given matchup. However, there are usually limits to how far they’ll go with them.
At another PPV event, Carmella might score an upset over Sasha by cheating or benefiting from some distraction; but it was considerably less likely at the Royal Rumble. Remember, this was one of the four biggest WWE cards of the year that sets the table for WrestleMania.
The writers want Sasha Banks in one of the main events defending her championship. As it turns out, she’ll be defending it against Bianca Belair in what’s destined to be one of – if not THE most — anticipated matches at WrestleMania.
Roman Reigns (c) vs. Kevin Owens
At the same time, if the Sasha Banks title defense was never in doubt, the same could be said for this contest. Yet, MyBookie offered betting odds on the WWE Universal Championship match between Smackdown superstars Roman Reigns and Kevin Owens – albeit extremely one-sided odds.
Who Will Win?
- Matchup Odds
- Roman Reigns -1000
- Kevin Owens +600
Roman Reigns’ current “Tribal Chief” storyline is far-and-away the best thing on WWE programming at the moment. There was no way they would take the title away from their biggest star doing the best work of his career before WrestleMania.
In fact, all signs point to an eventual showdown between Reigns and The Rock, which makes the former all-but-invincible in the meantime.
However, bettors who staked a few bucks on the massive underdog Kevin Owens should be furious because he definitely won the match.
At the Royal Rumble, the two competed in an Ironman match – the fight continues until one of the wrestlers can’t get back to their feet before the count of ten. There are no pins or submissions.
One of the match’s final spots involved Kevin Owens handcuffing Roman to the bottom of a lighting rig, making it impossible for him to stand. Near the end of the ten-count, Reigns – playing the role of the “heel” or bad guy – pulled the referee into the construction, knocking him out and buying himself more time.
Next, Paul Heyman – Roman’s manager – was supposed to come out from the locker room with a key and uncuff his fighter, just as a second referee materialized to restart the count.
Only Heyman and Reigns couldn’t figure out how to remove the cuffs. Out of nowhere, the backup ref just stopped the count at “5” without any explanation!
Owens should have won the match several times over considering how long it took to get Roman freed. Regardless, when the champ finally got out, he promptly choked KO — who had been selling a low blow for well over two minutes at that point — unconscious.
It was a horrible botch that ruined an otherwise decent brawl.
In old-school wrestling promotions, officials are told to complete the count, even if the performers screw up the finish.
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Men’s Royal Rumble Match
Wagering on the Royal Rumble matches probably offers the most betting value out of any single WWE contest all year.
The large field of competitors ensures decent payouts, even though only a small handful of participants has a realistic chance of winning.
There may be 30 entrants, but there are usually only five-or-so competitors that make any sense as victors, once you consider the various storylines at play at WrestleMania implications.
- Who are the two champions, and which Royal Rumble entrants would generate the most excitement ahead of WWE’s “Super Bowl?”
- The bookers (people who decide what happens in the match) like to make a young up-and-coming wrestler the “star” of the battle royale, but one of the usual suspects – a roster veteran like Roman Reigns, Randy Orton, John Cena, etc. — or returning legend typically prevails.
The WWE has the deepest roster with the most talent ever assembled in pro wrestling history. Unfortunately, they’ve largely forgotten how to turn young prospects into superstars. There are many theories as to why that is, but whatever the case, Vince has been relying more on nostalgia acts / retired legends to draw attention in recent years.
Many suspect McMahon doesn’t want any single roster member to become more prominent than the “WWE” brand. That could be why they never follow through with creating another Stone Cold Steve Austin or The Rock – someone whose fame may drive them away from wrestling and towards Hollywood.
Yes, the front office has their favorites like Roman Reigns and Charlotte Flair, who routinely win at the expense of exciting up-and-coming prospects with tons of heat behind them, but that’s not the same as well-booked organic mega-stars.
Whatever the case, it’s crucial that you consider the WWE’s favoritism, reliance on nostalgia, and recent history of bad booking decisions. (That said, the 2021 Royal Rumble was a rare case in which there weren’t too many poor choices.)
The men’s Rumble competitors’ average age was 38.93 years old, with only two participants under 30. The winner, Edge, is 47 and only came out of a seven-year retirement at last year’s Royal Rumble before spending most of the year sidelined with injuries.
Is that the oldest in history? Only two guys under 30 is a real indictment. https://t.co/Ud5ImUQidc
— Dave Meltzer (@davemeltzerWON) February 1, 2021
Men’s Royal Rumble Betting Odds (on 1/29)
| Winner | Betting Odds | Winner | Betting Odds | Winner | Betting Odds |
| Keith Lee | +250 | Roman Reigns | +1200 | Lars Sullivan | +2500 |
| Daniel Bryan | +260 | Braun Strowman | +1300 | Karrion Kross | +3000 |
| Big E | +300 | The Rock | +1500 | Tommasso Ciampa | +3000 |
| Brock Lesnar | +450 | Sheamus | +1800 | The Miz | +3300 |
| Edge | +500 | Finn Balor | +1800 | Jeff Hardy | +3500 |
| Goldberg | +500 | Andrade | +2000 | Kane | +5000 |
| AJ Styles | +900 | Matt Riddle | +2000 | Triple H | +5000 |
| Kevin Owens | +1000 | King Corbin | +2200 | The Undertaker | +6000 |
| Seth Rollins | +1000 | Jey Uso | +2300 | Stone Cold Steve Austin | +6000 |
| Bray Wyatt | +1100 | Randy Orton | +2300 | Shane McMahon | +10000 |
| Drew McIntyre | +1200 | Bobby Lashley | +2500 | Ric Flair | +10000 |
Coming into the Royal Rumble, Edge was one of the top five favorites to win it. Once Keith Lee was removed from the talent pool, Edge at +500 represented tremendous betting value.
In my previous iteration of this article, I ranked the following participants as my favorite picks (keeping their odds in mind):
- Big E (+300): He may be the Intercontinental Champion already, but Big E is ready to blast off as a babyface superstar after being separated from his stablemates in The New Day. Smackdown has a heel champion in Roman Reigns, so the pairing made sense.
- Braun Strowman (+1300): The WWE is usually a few years behind with their booking decisions. Two years ago, at the height of his popularity, Braun Strowman should have won the Royal Rumble, so it made perfect sense that he’d suddenly win it in 2021 instead. While I wasn’t necessarily expecting him to take this year’s match, at +1300 odds, the “Monster Among Men” was a solid wager. Braun is on Raw with Drew McIntyre, who needs a new rival after beating Goldberg. Strowman is the perfect big, nasty heel for a babyface champ to overcome.
- Daniel Bryan (+260): Bryan is a perennial fan-favorite who’s wrapping up his Hall of Fame-worthy career. He’s still one of the company’s best talkers and is deserving of being a WrestleMania headliner. Daniel is the perfect babyface to keep fans invested while putting over his opponent. He’d be the ideal next opponent for Roman Reigns, which is why I thought he had a shot.
- Goldberg (+500): Nothing would have been more “WWE” than having Goldberg lose to Drew McIntyre only to return at 29 and win the Royal Rumble just as pro wrestling fans everywhere were breathing a sigh of relief. At +500, the pessimist in me saw this line as an absolute steal.
- Edge (+500): Edge was my fifth-favorite bet at +500 odds. However, I only inserted him into my top five on my second rewrite after Friday’s announcement he’d be one of the first two entrants. A returning legend opening the battle royal against a recent rival just felt like the kind of story they’d use. Of course, I expected Edge to be the one absent from most of the match with an “injury” before making a triumphant return. They surprised me by having him go bell-to-bell.
Women’s Royal Rumble Match
The women’s Royal Rumble match provided the best action on the card. It was one of those rare-but-wonderful moments when the WWE actually delivered not only what the fans wanted to see but what made the most sense for the company and long-term storytelling.
- She’s the most elite athlete in the division.
- She possesses supermodel good looks.
- She has a fantastic gimmick that makes her unique from everyone else in the industry (an insanely long ponytail she uses as a whip).
- And she naturally oozes boatloads of charisma.
MyBookie’s oddsmakers have more confidence in WWE’s writing staff than I do.
While Bianca Belair and Rhea Ripley should undoubtedly be the two favorites on Sunday night, a long history of disappointments has left me pessimistic about their chances.
If Vince McMahon has a brain left in his head, Bianca will win the Royal Rumble en route to her first championship at WrestleMania. They should then do everything in the company’s power to get her on the talk show circuit and in front of mainstream audiences. Her hair whip would play brilliantly on Jimmy Fallon’s late-night show.
Unfortunately, that almost guarantees she’ll lose at the end.
Based on how she’s being pushed lately, Bianca will enter the Rumble within the first five spots and eliminate the most competitors before being tossed out by someone like Bayley or Alexa Bliss right at the end.
Women’s Royal Rumble Betting Odds (on 1/29)
| Winner | Betting Odds | Winner | Betting Odds | Winner | Betting Odds |
| Bianca Belair | +325 | Io Shirai | +1200 | Ember Moon | +3500 |
| Rhea Ripley | +370 | Lacey Evans | +1400 | Natalya | +3500 |
| Alexa Bliss | +500 | Lana | +1500 | Toni Storm | +4000 |
| Ronda Rousey | +500 | Carmella | +1500 | Billy Kay | +4000 |
| Shayna Baszler | +700 | Mandy Rose | +1800 | Dana Brooke | +4000 |
| Charlotte Flair | +750 | Peyton Royce | +2000 | Eva Marie | +6000 |
| Bayley | +800 | Ruby Riott | +2000 | Tamina | +6500 |
| Nia Jax | +900 | Nikki Cross | +2500 | Paige | +7000 |
| Becky Lync | +1000 | Sonya Deville | +2500 | Lita | +10000 |
| Sasha Banks | +1000 | Naomi | +3000 | Kelly Kelly | +10000 |
| Asuka | +1200 | Candice LaRae | +3500 | Stephanie McMahon | +10000 |
Having Rhea Ripley and Bianca Belair dominate the women’s Royal Rumble and become the final two competitors standing before the latter prevailed was a clear sign that things are heading in the right direction. So was Drew McIntyre’s successful defense against Goldberg.
Which brings me to my final betting tip…
The WWE behaves much differently when they have significant competition. With AEW winning the Wednesday night ratings war against NXT and generating more interest by participating in crossover promotion with Impact!, Vince McMahon’s monopoly on the professional wrestling industry is finally being challenged.
It’s when attention is waning, and there’s an external threat that the WWE starts listening to their fans. Maybe with Kenny Omega and the Bullet Club reunion hanging over their heads, McMahon and company will get back to their Attitude Era mindset.
Maybe they’ll stop worrying about spamming corporate buzzwords and limiting their athletes’ exposure in the name of ensuring no individual performer exceeds the “WWE” brand.
As we approach WrestleMania, WWE handicappers must keep these recent developments in mind. We might just get compelling storylines and phenomenal pro wrestling betting opportunities at the same time!
Fingers crossed!
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