Will the Jacksonville Jaguars Reach the Over in Year 1 of the Meyer/Lawrence Era?

The Jacksonville Jaguars sit at a 6.5-game Over/Under projection, per the BetOnline Sportsbook. And while ESPN may claim the Jaguars are incapable of reaching the Over in Year 1 of the Urban Meyer-Trevor Lawrence Era, don’t underestimate the power of this young but potentially lethal team. 

Lawrence is the highest-graded quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, and we all know what luck did in 2012 when he turned the then 2-14 Colts into an 11-win team. Lawrence can do the same with an accomplished coach in Meyer, especially since the Jaguars have the luxury of a weaker schedule. 

Today’s post will touch on whether the Jacksonville Jaguars make for a smart Over bet, or if you are better off going with the Under. Yeah, they’re young and it seems like everyone’s writing off this 1-15 team from 2020. 

But let’s discuss the issue first. 

State of the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a completely different team under Urban Meyer. This team hasn’t had a true franchise quarterback since the days of Mark Brunell. Sure, they had near-hits with Byron Leftwich and David Garrard, but neither panned out long-term. Ditto for Blake Bortles, who they reached for in 2014.

However, the Jags found the largest diamond in the rough in 2020 with running back James Robinson. They coupled this by drafting Travis Etienne, which raised many eyebrows, considering Robinson’s success. However, Meyer has already stated they will turn Etienne into a hybrid player.

They have at least 2 good receivers in D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault. Plus, there’s always quarterback-turned tight end (finally) Tim Tebow. Will the 34-year-old become a strength or a liability?

They have a young defensive line led by Josh Allen, plus experience at linebacker with Myles Jack and Joe Schobert. They also have a decent pair of corners with C. J. Henderson and Shaquill Griffin.

In all honesty, the Jaguars look good on paper.

The Jaguars look to avoid that. But man, did they take a risk with Urban Meyer. Sure, Meyer’s resume as a college football coach is one of the best in NCAA history, and definitely in the top 10. But Meyer has never coached a down of professional football, so we don’t know how good he will be in this new role.

Also, the Jaguars must figure out how to contend with the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts. They went 1-3 against the AFC South’s best in 2020. But both teams have improved as much if not more than the Jaguars.

That said, the Jaguars may still find themselves flirting with a record close to their projected Over/Under. 

Strengths of the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are much stronger than they look, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. No, this does not mean they will reach the Over in Year 1 of the Urban Meyer Era. But it means they will at least threaten to. Look for the Jacksonville Jaguars to immediately ride quarterback Trevor Lawrence. 

Look, if Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow played well in this increasingly quarterback-friendly league, Lawrence will follow. Expect him to be very Herbert-like early in his career with the Jaguars. 

Travis Etienne was a teammate of Lawrence’s, and it already gives the players chemistry. Add Robinson in at running back plus Etienne’s hybrid role, and you can immediately see how well this will catapult the Jaguars in Year 1. 

Plus, with Chark, Shenault, Marvin Jones, and Phillip Dorsett, it gives the Jaguars an excellent group of receivers to work with. 

You need to be excited about the team’s linebacking unit with Joe Schobert lining up next to Myles Jack. They will even look good up front with Josh Allen, Malcolm Brown, K’Lavon Chaisson, and DaVon Hamilton leading the charge. 

Even their defensive backfield looks good with Shaquill Griffin and CJ Henderson booking the corners.

Overall, the potential is there for the Jaguars to shock many in the NFL universe. And if you bet on them to encroach the Over, they may end up rewarding you for your risk. 

Also, give props to Urban Meyer for being far more consulting with his staff. Meyer is smart enough to realize that he has never coached a down of professional football, but he has a solid group around him who has. 

Weaknesses of the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars lack experience all over the place, and you will see growing pains. And no, there are no exceptions. Whether it’s Trevor Lawrence feeling the pain, Travis Etienne, Urban Meyer, the inexperienced defense, the Jaguars’ lack of experience overall will show. 

Sure, the lack of experience may allow them to scratch the 7-10 mark and reach the Over in Year 1 of this rebuild. But it will require them to play their best football in games in which they match well against their opponents. 

Don’t expect them to beat those on the league’s bottom rung. And definitely don’t expect them to pull off many upsets in 2021. Sure, an upset here and a dominant victory there will raise the bar for this young football team. 

But given the amount of sheer talent both on the field and on the coaching staff, betting the Under is just as much of a risk as betting the Over. 

Schedule of the Jacksonville Jaguars

Since the Jacksonville Jaguars finished near the bottom of the league’s pecking order, they will play uncommon opponents who did the same. They include the Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons, and Denver Broncos. 

The good news is that the Jaguars match well against at least one of them: the Denver Broncos. But the bad news remains that the Falcons match up better than the Jags do on paper and the Bengals could make The Leap in Year 2 of their rebuild. 

Look for the Jaguars to win 1 game here, with no more than 2. 

As for uncommon opponents, the Jaguars face a gauntlet. More good news: They’re on the same rung as the New York Jets. Perhaps they’re a shade better, since we can probably credit the Jets’ second victory in the 2020 NFL Season over the Cleveland Browns to the latter’s lack of receivers in that game. 

Expect the Jaguars to hang well with the Jets, but they’re not good enough yet on paper to overcome another one of the league’s bottom-dwellers, considering the Jets’ outstanding offseason. Or seemingly so. 

• Look for a floor of 0-8 against common opponents, and a ceiling of 2-6 here. Sure, the Jaguars have talent and they’re better than they were in 2020. But man, talk about a tough slate of common opponents in the AFC East and NFC West.
• As for their AFC South opponents, look for a floor of 2-4 and a ceiling of 3-3. The Jags stole one in 2020 against the Indianapolis Colts, so look for them to do the same against either the Colts or Tennessee Titans. Then, there’s the Houston Texans, who they can sweep, or at least split with.

Will the Jaguars Reach the Over?

If the Jaguars sweep the Texans, beat the New York Jets, beat 2 uncommon opponents, and score 2 upsets, they will. And if you believe they have the talent to do this, bet the Over. 

If you believe Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer can grow as NFL rookies at their respective job posts, then bet the Over. But if you feel Lawrence and Meyer will experience a few growing pains that will lead to underperformance against opponents, bet the Under. 

The Jaguars have potential to surprise and win 7 games. Perhaps more, if they come together later in the season. But given their youth, along with a head coach who has never coached a down in the NFL, it’s still an uphill battle. 

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Conclusion

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a lot of young talent, even if they’re an inexperienced bunch. Jaguars brass has put a lot of faith into Urban Meyer and company, and they can only throw and hope that it will pay off sooner than later. 

The talent is there. The potential is there. But until the Jaguars prove they can hang with and defeat the NFL’s best, you can’t say for sure whether they will in over 3 games in 2021. Even if they can string together a few more if they grow fast. 

What are your thoughts on the Jacksonville Jaguars? Do you believe they are a good bet to reach their Over in 2021? Tell us your thoughts in the comments and we look forward to hearing from you.