Wild vs. Coyotes NHL Odds & Pick: Back Arizona With Darcy Kuemper in Net (Monday, April 19)

The Arizona Coyotes ended a five-game losing streak with a 3-2 win over the St. Louis Blues on Saturday night. Arizona (20-20-5) sits in fourth place in the West Division with 45 points, just one points ahead of the Blues for the final playoff spot, although St. Louis has played two fewer games.

The Minnesota Wild sit comfortably in a playoff position, with 57 points and a 27-13-3 record. The Wild have won three games in a row entering Monday’s game.

Let’s dig into see if Minnesota is good value to stay hot.

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Minnesota Wild

The Minnesota Wild have been led by a pair of rookies this season. Left winger Kirill Kaprizov leads the team, as well as all rookies, with 36 points on 17 goals, as well as registering 19 assists.

The rookie: goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen, who holds a 13-7-0 record with a .910 save percentage and 2.66 goals against average. He has shared the net with veteran Cam Talbot. The eight-year netminder is 14-6-3 this year and has a .922 save percentage and 2.42 GAA.

While Kahkonen got most of the headlines during his nine-game winning streak, Talbot is actually the one with 4.1 GSAx, which is 11th in the league. Kahkonen has a -6.2 GSAx and has lost three of his last four starts.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.

Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

xG numbers and advanced stats cited from Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.

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Arizona Coyotes

It has been a bit of an up-and-down year for the Coyotes, but they got some good news on Saturday with return of star goalie Darcy Kuemper. Kuemper has been out since March 8, but had a .914 save percentage, 2.38 goals against average and 3.5 GSAx. Last season, he ranked fourth in the league with a 2.22 goals against average, fifth with a .928 save percentage and sixth with 7.7 GSAx.

While Minnesota has just one skater with at least 30 points on the season, while Arizona has four. Phil Kessel leads the way with 34 points and 16 goals. Following him is Conor Garland with 32 points and Jakob Chychrun and Clayton Keller with 31.

Chychrun has become one of the best and most underrated defenseman in the NHL. His 13 goals this season lead all NHL blue-liners.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Over the past month, the Wild rank 30th in the NHL with 42.89 xGF% at 5-on-5, just 0.01 above the Anaheim Ducks. The Wild are 29th with a 44.55% High-Danger Chance percentage. The Coyotes have fared better in both areas over that stretch with a 48.4 xGF% and 46.24 HDCF%.

Arizona has just 11 games remaining to secure a playoff berth with the Blues nipping at their heels. The Desert Dogs need to play desperate hockey, and I think the return of their star goaltender will give them the jolt they need down the stretch.

Kuemper allowed two early goals in his first game back against the Blues on Saturday before shutting the door the rest of the game.

The Wild have struggled at even strength as of late, and I like the Coyotes chance to get a win at home with their goaltender back between the pipes. Back Arizona at anything +125 or better.

Pick: Coyotes +125

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