Why You Shouldn’t Overreact to the First Half of MLB Season

The 2021 Major League Baseball season is more than halfway complete. Through the first half of the season, fans and sports gamblers have seen the league transition back to normalcy following a COVID-shortened 2020 season.

Certain top contenders like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros are continuing their impressive streak of dominance. Others, like the New York Yankees, are underperforming and seem to be at a pivotal crossroads that could impact the franchise’s long-term goals.

With all of the action that’s occurred over the last several months, there’s plenty for baseball gamblers to overreact to. Some of these overreactions are just that, and shouldn’t be cause for concern.

However, there are a few knee-jerk reactions that might turn out to be a valid reason to hit the panic button. Here are 5 things every sports gambler needs to know about the first half of the MLB season.

1 ‒ Can a Dark Horse Make a Run to October?

There are several important topics that tend to resurface during each and every All-Star Break. This year is no exception.

Of those topics, the debate about which teams are legitimate contenders is arguably the most popular. With a sample size of over 80 games, sports gamblers can begin to make some more informed predictions.

It seems as though most oddsmakers and experts are already starting to widdle the list of World Series candidates to a handful of teams. That’s a normal response to the first half of the season, but it’s worth digging a bit deeper.

Currently, the Dodgers (+275 to win the World Series) and Astros (+400) are 2 of the most popular choices. Trailing these favorites are the White Sox (+700) and Padres (+900) followed by the New York Mets (+1000).

The presence of these teams at the top of the league shouldn’t be all that surprising. However, there are 2 NL teams further down the list that are outperforming preseason expectations.

The San Francisco Giants are easily the biggest surprise in baseball. San Francisco opened the season with 100-1 odds to win the World Series but have climbed to +800 over the last few months.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee opened at 60-1 and is listed at +1200.

San Fran entered the All-Star break on a 4-game winning streak, while the Brewers are slumping a bit.

It’s not abnormal for a black horse, underdog-type to make a run at a World Series. However, if you’re going to wager on a team to upstage the biggest names in the game, there needs to be a convincing and compelling reason to do so.

As far as these 2 teams go, it’s important to analyze past results to grasp what led to successful first halves. By doing so you can better predict whether or not these performances are sustainable.

2 ‒ The Bronx Bombers are Done

If you had to describe the 2021 New York Yankees with one word, it would have to be inconsistent.

The Yankees entered the season as one of the top contenders, and were listed at +550 to win the World Series. New York’s roster is loaded and its level of pure talent is hard to deny.

While the team looks great on paper, you still have to see how the season plays out. In New York’s case, things have not gone as planned.

The Yankees are a disappointing 46-43 and 8 games behind Boston in the AL East. Its biggest stars are failing to perform, while members of the coaching staff and front office are on the hot seat.

A lackluster first half has several notable players rumored to be on the trading block. While the front office continues to claim the team will be buyers at the trade deadline, that seems more and more unlikely.

New York looked primed to ride into the All-Star Break with some momentum as the team was on the verge of sweeping Houston. However, the Yankees blew a 5 run lead in the 9th in a perfectly appropriate end to a highly disappointing first half.

The Yankees were listed at +2500 to win the American League, which is one of the most significant downswings in the league. New York still has plenty of talent, and if the team can put it together, it can easily hold its own against other top contenders.

Pay close attention to the Yankees’ first few weeks following the All-Star Break as that should tell you whether or not the team can rebound from a mediocre first half.

3 ‒ The National League Runs Through LA

The Los Angeles Dodgers are still widely regarded as the best team in the bigs.

Los Angeles had a solid first stretch of 2021 and is 56-35, good for 2nd in the NL West behind the Giants. Much of LA’s success is due to its consistency up and down a lineup that’s leading the NL in runs scored.

The Dodgers have dominated the NL for the better part of a decade and it seems like the team’s gearing up to continue its dynasty.

Its offense is one of the best in the bigs, thanks in large part to the contributions of mainstays like Mookie Betts and Justin Turner. Additionally, veterans like Max Muncy and Chris Taylor are having career years to help buoy Los Angeles.
However, a team can only score so many runs before its pitching staff needs to pick it up.

LA’s pitching has been decent for the most part. However, a few big question marks have popped up over the last several weeks.

The biggest of those comes in the form of Trevor Bauer, who some could argue had the best first half of any Dodgers pitcher. Bauer now finds himself in a heap of legal trouble and it’s unclear if and when he’ll be able to return to the mound.

The pitching staff is still in good shape thanks to Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Julio Urias. However, Bauer has been dominant over the past several months and will leave a notable gap in the Dodgers rotation.

4 ‒ Ohtani is The Best Player in the Bigs

When looking back on the last few months of baseball, it’s safe to say 1 player dominated the majors. For the first time in what feels like a decade, there’s now a point in arguing which baseball player is the league’s best.

Mike Trout has been the best player in baseball for years, however, his teammate Shohei Ohtani is now emerging as one of the league’s brightest stars.

When Ohtani came into the league, most pundits agreed that his ceiling was among the highest of any player. The two-way star was said to have the ability to be one of the best pitchers and hitters in the league.

To be honest, the league hasn’t seen that type of potential for nearly a century. To those expert’s credit, baseball fans together with the betting public, could see those brief stretches of dominance.

However certain obstacles, mostly injuries, seemed to follow Ohtani around like the plague. Angels fans knew that if he could just stay on the field, he had a chance to be one the best in the big leagues.

Now, we know for a fact that’s the case. Ohtani is dominating the American League, both as a pitcher and designated hitter. He was so dominant that he was named the AL’s starting pitcher in the All-Star Game.

If Shohei Ohtani stays healthy, no one in the MLB is more valuable than he is. He’s currently running away with the AL MVP (-290) and is making baseball fun for even the most casual fan.

5 ‒ Jacob deGrom Will Win Cy Young and MVP

If it wasn’t for Shohei Ohtani, Jacob deGrom would be the talk of the town.

At the All-Star Break, the Mets ace is 7-2 with 146 strikeouts and an otherworldly 1.08 ERA. That incredible first half has propelled New York to the top of the NL East and into World Series conversation.

deGrom now has a slight edge in the MVP race (-105) and is dominating the Cy Young race (-1000).

It’s essentially a foregone conclusion that the league’s best pitcher will sprint away with the Cy Young. However, there’s a bit of a logjam when it comes to the Most Valuable Player Award.

Still, if deGrom’s 2nd half is as remarkable as his first, the award should be as good as his.

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Conclusion

Overreactions are common in the world of sports gambling.

Some of these reactions, while extreme, even turn out to be valid. However, it’s not responsible to bet according to these knee-jerk reactions.

The first half of the 2021 MLB season was remarkable in many ways. New stars are continuing to emerge, and it seems like the league is making an effort to market its players.

Sports gamblers are in for a wild second half, so make sure to take advantage of the next few weeks and figure out which teams are capable of hanging around through October.