White Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Preview, Prediction: Target Chicago’s Team Total (Tuesday, August 24)

White Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds

José Berríos yet again pitches against the Chicago White Sox. This time it is for the Toronto Blue Jays, and Dylan Cease will match up with him.

The Blue Jays stole Game 1 of the series at the Rogers Centre on a wild pitch from Craig Kimbrel in the bottom of the eighth inning and won 2-1.

Berríos vs. Cease is a relatively even duel, so who has the edge in game two of this four game set?

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Chicago White Sox

Dylan Cease ranks amongst the tops of the league in spin rates. He also has an xERA of 3.73 and ERA of 4.06 with a strikeout percentage that puts him in the 87th percentile. This should come into play in this matchup with the Blue Jays, who have the second-lowest strikeout percentage in all of baseball. Cease should be able to negate that advantage, at least partially.

Now, the White Sox offense has been dormant over their last 18 innings of play. They have only scored one run in that timeframe and with Tim Anderson potentially out, due to soreness, for yet another game, their spark at the top of the order may be missing.

That said, outside of the mental jolt Anderson gives to the rest of the lineup, this should not matter as much as it seemingly has. The White Sox have an offense with a 109 wRC+ as a squad, made of seven other hitters, not including Anderson, with a wRC+ over the 100-mark.

Unfortunately, the White Sox rank fourth in double-play grounders in the MLB, which has killed some rallies this season. In addition, Cèsar Hernández, Nick Madrigal’s replacement at second base, only has a 56 wRC+ since the beginning of August. He needs to pick it up as a supplement to the lineup.

The White Sox bullpen may rank fifth overall in fWAR, but this has been the weakest part of the team lately.

The South Siders’ relief corps has a 3.81 combined ERA since the beginning of August, and Craig Kimbrel has been a huge letdown thus far. His 6.14 ERA in that time shows it.

Michael Kopech has not done as well in the seven innings he has thrown this month, either. Ryan Tepera, another acquisition from the deadline from the Cubs, has had the best month out of anyone.

This team has plenty of big names, but they need to pitch like it to be stable enough for an October run.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays send Berríos, a familiar face to the White Sox, to the hill. He ranks in the 77th percentile in chase rate, but every other peripheral metric shows he is slightly above average.

Berríos has been a pretty consistent arm this year for both the Minnesota Twins and Toronto, but he is getting a bit lucky with his 3.52 ERA against his 4.17 xERA.

This is something to measure when facing the White Sox, yet again. In 222 plate appearances against this Chicago team, he has a .310 xwOBA, which is solid. Eloy Jiménez and José Abreu have had some success off of Berríos, so this is something to monitor.

The Toronto lineup struggled with Lance Lynn in Monday’s game. Missing George Springer does not help, although the Jays still have plenty of artillery in MVP contender Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Teoscar Hernández, Marcus Semien and Bo Bichette.

The lineup is a bit top heavy, though. Hernández and Semien both strike out at a higher clip than the rest of their teammates, so keep an eye on them when facing Cease’s arsenal.

The Blue Jays bullpen is also plagued with injuries, while Adam Cimber, Tim Mayza and Jordan Romano both pitched on Monday night. Cimber, Trevor Richards and Brad Hand threw on Sunday, so the ‘pen looks to be a bit short-handed.

This will hurt with the White Sox looking to straighten out their offensive woes on Tuesday. If Anderson returns to Chicago’s lineup, that is just another spark against a depleted set of relievers for Toronto. This is where the edge comes into play for the White Sox.

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White Sox-Blue Jays Pick

The White Sox may not necessarily win this matchup, especially with Berríos on the bump. They have not shown enough in their time against him in the American League Central.

On the other hand, the Toronto bullpen is weak and their 4.85 combined ERA with plenty of pitchers unavailable on Tuesday should play into Chicago’s hand. Take the over for White Sox runs at 4 (-120) and play to 4.5 (-110). Do not be surprised if they hit this number in the seventh or eighth inning, so be patient.

Pick: Chicago White Sox Over 4 (-120), play to 4.5 (-110)

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