Alabama Crimson Tide Baylor Bears Best Sports Picks Gonzaga Bulldogs Houston Cougars illinois illini Iowa Hawkeyes Michigan Wolverines Ohio State Buckeyes Texas Longhorns USC Trojans villanova wildcats West Virginia Mountaneers

Which Teams Will Get A One Seed? A Betting Breakdown

February 12, 2021
financialfreedomllc20

We are now just over a month away from Selection Sunday, and the fight for the top line in the tournament is heating up! Getting a one seed in the NCAA tournament doesn’t guarantee that you are going to make it to the Final Four, but it does basically guarantee a trip to the round of 32, as only one team in history has ever lost in the round of 64 as a one seed. One seeds have made it to the Final Four twice as often as even two seeds, so getting on that top line is certainly a place that teams want to be.

This year, the battle for the top seeds is a wide-open one, as, after Gonzaga and Baylor, there are nearly a dozen teams that can make a case to be on the one line. In this article, we are going to take a look at the current betting odds and tell you which teams you should bet to snag those coveted one seeds on Selection Sunday. Let’s get started by showing you the current betting odds.

Betting Odds To Get A One Seed

  • Gonzaga Bulldogs (-10000)
  • Baylor Bears (-10000)
  • Michigan Wolverines (-200)
  • Ohio State Buckeyes (+100)
  • Villanova Wildcats (+100)
  • Alabama Crimson Tide (+115)
  • Illinois Illini (+200)
  • Houston Cougars (+700)
  • West Virginia Mountaineers (+900)
  • Missouri Tigers (+1500)
  • Florida State Seminoles (+3000)
  • Iowa Hawkeyes (+3000)
  • Texas Longhorns (+3000)
  • Oklahoma Sooners (+5000)
  • Tennessee Volunteers (+5000)
  • Texas Tech Red Raiders (+5000)
  • USC Trojans (+5000)
  • Virginia Cavaliers (+5000)

Surprisingly enough, you can actually get betting odds even deeper than this list, as we have teams like Michigan State +50000 and Duke at +100000 that are listed with odds for a one seed. But for argument’s sake, I am only going to focus on the above teams that offer odds of 50-1 or less to get a one seed. This late in the season, I don’t see any way that teams that are longer shots than this can get back into the one seed conversation, so I will leave them out for now.

The No Brainers

I won’t spend much time talking about Baylor and Gonzaga, as they both have a top line spot basically locked up at this point. The Zags have played all of the good teams that they are going to play this season, and they are almost certainly going to hit March Madness undefeated. Even if they did find a way to lose a game, or even a couple of games, what they did in the non-conference with wins over West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Kansas, and Auburn is going to be more than enough to get them a top seed.

For Baylor, the Bears have missed big chunks of their season due to COVID-19 related delays, and with so many cancellations, they aren’t even going to play enough games the rest of the way out to put their one seed at risk. Baylor’s wins over Illinois, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma State gives the Bears one of the top resumes in the nation.

You can’t bet on either Baylor or Gonzaga, as the price is just absurd. The books will only post a number like -10000 when they have something that they don’t want you to bet on. I guess technically, it would be basically free money, but the pearl is not worth the dive here, even if the only real risk is having part of your bankroll locked up for a month.

Michigan Wolverines (-200)

The Michigan Wolverines are the only other team that the books are currently charging juice to back, and I am going, to be honest, here, I hate this line on Big Blue. The Wolverines are currently shut down due to COVID-19, and by the time they take the floor again, they will have missed more than three weeks of play. The delay couldn’t have come at a worse time for Michigan, as they were playing some of their best basketball of the year before getting shut down.

Does Michigan have the talent and resume for a top seed? Absolutely. But we have never seen these types of delays before in college hoops, and it is hard to expect the Wolverines not to be rusty when they return to the floor. And with the Big 10 being so ultra-competitive, there isn’t going to be any time for the Wolverines to ease back into things. Michigan’s first game back will be in one of the toughest places to play in the nation, Madison, Wisconsin, against a very good Badgers team.

Michigan also has road games at Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan State and home games against Rutgers and Iowa, before jumping right into the Big 10 tournament, that should prove to be filled with land mines as well. I don’t think that Michigan is going to have to run the table and win all of those games to get a one seed, but if they lose two or three of those games, I can see them sliding down a line or two, especially when you look at the fact that they are going to be playing against other teams competing for the top line. No disrespect to the Wolverines, but they were dealt a bad hand here late in the season, and it is going to cost them on Selection Sunday.

Ohio State Buckeyes (+100)

The Big 10 is going to get a one seed. The league is just too good to get shut out of the top line. You can pencil Gonzaga and Baylor as two of the top seeds, and you can just write Big 10 in the third spot, as one of these teams is going to get picked to be a one. I just talked about why I don’t like Michigan coming off of a long delay, and a big reason why I don’t like the Wolverines is because I think Ohio State ends up emerging from the Big 10 as the league’s top team.

While Michigan has been sitting at home trying to practice virtually, Ohio State has caught fire in league play. The Buckeyes are surging up the national rankings, and their recent five-game winning streak has come against some of the best teams in the league. Ohio State has road wins at Rutgers, at Illinois, at Wisconsin, at Maryland, and at Iowa. No team in the nation touts that strong of a road resume. For whatever reason, the Buckeyes couldn’t beat Purdue, as the Boilermakers swept Ohio State, but Matt Painters guys are a plucky group, and they never go down without a fight, so those losses aren’t all that bad.

Looking ahead on the schedule, the red-hot Buckeyes play four of their last six games at home, including a huge matchup with Michigan on February 21st. That could be a one seed elimination game, as the Big 10 is great, but I don’t see the league getting two number one seeds. Kenpom has Ohio State winning that one, and so do I. The Buckeyes finish their regular season with back-to-back home games against Iowa and Illinois, teams that Ohio State has already beaten this year on the road. All signs point to Ohio State riding this momentum to a Big 10 title and one seed, book the Buckeyes.

The Final One Seed

We aren’t very deep into this discussion yet, and we already have three of the four one seeds locked up. Gonzaga, Baylor, and Ohio State are each going to take their place on the top line, while the rest of the nation fights it out for the final spot up top. In this section, I am going to highlight each remaining team that currently offers single-digit odds.

Villanova Wildcats (+100)

If the Big East were as good as it usually is right now, the Wildcats would be a lock to nab a one seed. But the league is down this season, and that hurts ‘Nova’s chances of getting to the top of the seeding. The Big East only has two teams in the top-30 on Kenpom, and depending on which expert you ask, the league could get as few as three or four teams into the tournament.

The Wildcats had a big win over Texas in the non-conference, and they are running away with the Big East regular season title, but these Big East wins are garnering a collective yawn when you take a closer look. Wins over teams like Seton Hall, Marquette, Providence, and Georgetown aren’t bad ones, but they aren’t blowing anybody’s hair back either. The Wildcats are the team that gets the final one seed if the rest of the contenders all struggle down the stretch. Even if Villanova goes undefeated the rest of the way out, they won’t be able to stay ahead of some of these other teams if they have a similarly strong finish to the season.

Alabama Crimson Tide (+150)

Two weeks ago, it looked like Alabama was going to storm their way right to the top of the rankings, as they reeled off ten consecutive victories and were poised to run away with the regular season SEC title. But the Tide have cooled down since then, as they lost to Oklahoma and Missouri, and while they are still clearly the team to beat in the SEC, the hype train has been derailed just a bit.

Alabama only has one game left on their schedule against a team that is likely to make the NCAA tournament, so they should have a strong finish, but a loss to the likes of a Mississippi State, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, or Auburn would all but end any claim the Tide had to a top seed. If they win out, they likely snatch that final spot.

Illinois Illini (+200)

It was supposed to be Illinois and Iowa fighting it out for the Big 10 title this season, but instead, it has been Ohio State and Michigan looking like the best teams from the nation’s best league. But do not sleep on the Illini, as they can still absolutely make a run to the Final Four.

The only reason that I don’t like the Illini’s chances at a one seed is because the schedule lays out really tough for them. Illinois has six games left on their schedule, with five of those games coming on the road. That includes games in really tough places to win like Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Ohio State. If the Illini finish the season by winning each of those games, would they have a case for a one seed? Absolutely. But it’s not going to happen, so I’ll stay away from Illinois.

Houston Cougars (+700)

Houston has the same problem as Villanova does right now, and that is that the American Athletic Conference stinks. The AAC could very well end up being a one-bid league this season, with only SMU, Wichita State, and Memphis making as any case for an at-large bid besides Houston. The Cougars are going to win the regular season AAC title, but it’s not going to do much to help them get a one seed. Houston probably won’t lose again this year, at least not before the NCAA tournament, but early season losses to Tulsa and East Carolina are going to keep the Cougars off of the top line.

West Virginia Mountaineers (+900)

West Virginia only losses to elite teams. The Mountaineers have losses to Gonzaga, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Florida. All of those teams are going to be dancing in March, and it wouldn’t be shocking if all of those teams are still playing after the first weekend is over. West Virginia has been the only team that has been close to upsetting Gonzaga, as they nearly knocked off the Bulldogs, and four of their five losses came by single digits.

These guys can play with any team in the country. West Virginia still plays Oklahoma and Texas, but they would likely need to match up with, and beat, Baylor in the Big 12 conference tournament to have a real chance at a one seed. Bob Huggins knows how to win late in the season, but that’s a tall task, and I don’t think the Mountaineers are up to it.

The Longshots With A Chance

In this final section, I am going to highlight a couple of teams that would need a lot to break their way to finds themselves up top, but could sneak onto the one line with a perfect finish and some help. These are your high risk, high reward plays.

Iowa Hawkeyes (+3000)

It wasn’t long ago that Iowa was a top-5 team that looked like they could drop triple digits on any team in the country. Iowa stumbled in Big 10 play, with losses in four out of five games, but they got back on track with a win over a ranked Rutgers team last night. The Hawkeyes play Wisconsin twice, Ohio State, and Michigan still in the regular season.

Wins in those four games would get Iowa right back into the national title conversation, and if they followed it up with a Big 10 tournament title, you can bet that they will be rewarded with a one seed in the tournament. That is a lot, but Iowa controls their own destiny, and this team is worth a play at this jumbo price.

Texas Longhorns (+3000)

The Texas Longhorns are in the same boat as Iowa is right now. They were looking like a Final Four favorite until the last two weeks that saw them lose four out of five games. Shaka Smart has the best team he has ever had in Austin, and with games against Oklahoma, West Virginia, Kansas, and Texas Tech still left to play, a strong finish gets the Longhorns right back into the top-10 and into the one seed conversation. Texas would likely need to win the Big 12 tournament to get a top spot, but they are capable of beating elite teams, and you can’t beat the price.

USC Trojans (+5000)

Oh, the poor PAC-12. It is easy to pick on the self-proclaimed conference of champions, as they are once again down this year. Even with the ACC and Big East not being up to their normal standards, the PAC-12 is still a distant 6th place on Kenpom’s conference rankings. That makes the Trojan’s claims of being the best team in the conference a somewhat dubious one.

But make no mistake, the Trojans are a lot better than anyone is giving them credit for right now. Evan Mobley is going to be the number one overall pick in next year’s NBA draft, and USC is on fire, having won ten out of their last eleven games. In the last two weeks of the regular season, USC plays at Colorado and at UCLA, with the league title presumably on the line. If the Trojans sweep those games and follow it up with a PAC-12 tournament title, they are going to be in consideration for a top seed.

What’s The Bet?

I have broken down the favorites, the middle of the pack, and the longshots, and now I am ready to give you my favorite bets to make. If you want to lock up your bankroll for a month on Gonzaga and Baylor, feel free to do it, but don’t be upset when you get back only pennies on the dollar with your money on ice. I will leave those two teams off the board and present my four top bets below.

The Bets

  • Ohio State Buckeyes (+100)
  • Alabama Crimson Tide (+115)
  • Iowa Hawkeyes (+3000)
  • USC Trojans (+5000)

Wrap Up

Well, there you have it, folks, my top four bets on which teams are going to get one seeds. Now, remember, these aren’t the four teams that I think are actually going to get the top line seeds in March Madness, these are the four bets that show the most long-term value. There is a key distinction between the two, that you must understand. Thanks for reading, and make sure that you check out TheSportsGeek’s college hoops betting page, where we bring you high value picks each and every day!

#fantasyfootball #Sports #Betting #sportsbetting #sportsbettingadvice #freepick #freepicks #sportsbettingtips #handicapping #predictions #sportspredictions #NFL #esports #espn #NBA #NHL #sportsprediction #ncaa #mlb #WNBA #prediction #nhl #nhlplayoffs #nhlpicks #nbapicks #NBAPlayoffs #NFLPlayoffs #espnsports #bettingsports #bettingtips #bettingonline #bettingexpert #basketball #football #soccer #hockey #sportspicks #ncaabasketball #foxsports #cbssports #soccerpredictions #sportingbet