Wednesday Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sevilla vs. Borussia Dortmund (Feb. 17)

Sevilla vs. Dortmund Odds

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The Champions League Round of 16 is often one of the most exciting of the tournament, with underperforming Borussia Dortmund traveling to Spain to take on in-form Sevilla. While the two sides have been trending in opposite directions in their respective league tables, underlying data suggests that Dortmund isn’t nearly as bad as their sixth position in the Bundesliga table indicates.

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Sevilla

La Liga’s performances across the whole of Europe have been less than impressive. Sevilla was put in an easy group with Chelsea, Rennes and Krasnodar and the underlying numbers were not good. Over two legs with Krasnodar, Sevilla won the xG 3.6-3.2. Overall, they got crushed by Chelsea and finished with a -0.1 xG difference across the six matches.

Barcelona were embarrassed at home by Juventus, Atletico Madrid were third-best in their group and rode hot finishing past RB Salzburg. Real Madrid lost twice to Shakhtar and needed a final day win against Borussia Monchengladbach to advance. All of these European performances confirm what I’ve thought all year — La Liga is down in quality.

Sevilla are in great form within the league of late, but throughout the season, they’re far from dominant. Their xG per 90 difference of +0.45 ranks seventh in the league, which is their lowest rank since they finished eighth in 2017-18.

Sevilla’s season-long xG difference is +10 goals, but their total goal difference is +16.

Dortmund

Dortmund fired manager Lucien Favre after a rare stretch of expected goals underperformance, but new manager Edin Terzic has taken over and the results and form have not improved. In fact, Dortmund slipped from first to second in the xG difference per 90 table in the Bundesliga. They’ll be without Axel Witsel, goalkeeper Roman Burki and right back Thomas Meunier. BVB won the xG battle in five of their six matches in the CL group stage and won its group, unlike Sevilla.

Dortmund has been great on their travels this year in terms of underlying performance, even if the results haven’t backed it up. Per FBref.com, BVB has been better away from home, generating a +12.4 xG difference away from the Signal Iduna Park.

Despite this, their actual goal difference is +2. Dortmund have been running unsustainably behind their xG numbers and is bound for some positive regression entering this road tie at Sevilla.

Betting Analysis & Picks

Recent league form tends to be overvalued in the betting markets in the Champions League knockouts. This is a classic example, where a struggling Dortmund is undervalued against an overrated Sevilla team, beating up on a weaker La Liga than usual.

Dortmund has the better individual quality in attack with Erling Haaland and Jadon Sancho, and despite the injury concerns in the midfield, they are priced too cheap here.

Picks: Borussia Dortmund Draw No Bet (+125)

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