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Way Too Early 2021-22 NHL Awards Predictions

July 15, 2021
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The Lightning are still buzzin’ from their second Stanley Cup championships in less than a 10-month span and despite the lack of an awards ceremony due to the unique NHL calendar, the 2020-21 NHL Awards have indeed been dished out.

The hockey world doesn’t have much time for a breather as the Seattle expansion draft, the NHL Entry Draft and beginning of free agency all take place within the next couple weeks, in that order.

While we’re waiting, let’s a bigger-picture view towards next season. More specifically, let’s check into some early odds to win some of the league’s individual hardware for the 2021-22 campaign!

*Odds courtesy of Bovada

Hart Trophy – League MVP

Unlike the remainder of the awards I’ll be going through, I’m not going to list all the of odds on the board as there’s a lengthy list of MVP candidates, as usual.

Connor McDavid cruised his way to the league’s second unanimous Hart Trophy vote thanks to tally a ridiculous 105 points across just 56 games played last season, 21 points clear of second-place finisher (and teammate) Leon Draisaitl. It was McDavid’s second career Hart victory after winning the 2017 award following a 100-point season, this time in all 82 games played as he’s clearly getting better by the season.

Connor McDavid (+350)

McDavid is the Hart favorite again next season, but man is there ever value here at +350. Clearly, McDavid separated himself as the best player on the planet last season, and it wasn’t even close. There wasn’t a single moment throughout the regular season in which there was any doubt he would claim the Hart Trophy as league MVP.

Now, that certainly doesn’t guarantee anything next season. It’s an awfully tough task to repeat as the best player in the sport and the feat hasn’t been accomplished since 2008-2009 when Alex Ovechkin took home back-to-back Hart’s. A certain Oiler named Wayne Gretzky rattled off eight straight of his own from 1980 through 1987, but I’d suggest the playing field and overall competitiveness is far more level in this era.

Nonetheless, barring injury, it’s a near lock that McDavid will be in the conversation — at the minimum. Since entering the league in the 2015-16 season, McDavid’s 574 points is by far the most in the league, 43 more than second-place Patrick Kane. If we move the sample up one season to the 2016-17 campaign considering he missed considerable time with a broken collarbone in his rookie year, McDavid opens up an even bigger lead with 526 points, 80 more than second-place Draisaitl and 100 more than third-place Brad Marchand.

In other words, he’s lapping the field at this point and I see fantastic value for McDavid to repeat at +350 in 2021-22.

The Bet
CONNOR MCDAVID
+350
Bet Now!

Norris Trophy – Top Defenseman

  • Cale Makar (+300)
  • Adam Fox (+400)
  • Victor Hedman (+400)
  • Dougie Hamilton (+1200)
  • Charlie McAvoy (+1200)
  • Roman Josi (+1500)
  • Miro Heiskanen (+1500)
  • Aaron Ekblad (+2000)

    • It was an upset for the ages when it came to the 2021 Norris Trophy winner as the Rangers’ Adam Fox shocked his way to the top of the voters’ lists. This is a good reminder that bets do not have to be placed right now as we’ll get them again prior to the season and throughout the 2021-22 campaign as Fox’s name surely was not available among Norris contenders until the season had began last year.

    He burst onto the scene with 47 points in 55 games and one of the league’s top power-play defenders with 23 man-advantage points not to mention some sparkling advanced metrics as well.

    Elsewhere, 2019 Norris winner Roman Josi comes in at +1500 while perennial candidate Victor Hedman sits alongside Fox at +400 to win his second career Norris.

    Miro Heiskanen (+1500)

    Hey, Fox was entirely off the board so I don’t want to hear any grief about going with some serious value here with the Stars’ young superstar.

    Turning 22 this week, Heiskanen already has 205 NHL regular-season games under his belt to go along with 40 more postseason contests. Of course, those regular-season games would be far higher had the last two seasons been of the normal variety.

    He’s proven to be exceedingly durable in that time. He skated in all 82 games as a rookie while averaging 23:07 of ice time, played in all but one game while logging 23:46 as a sophomore before also missing just a single game while ramping his ice time all the way to 24:58 per night. That’s two games missed of a possible 207 for a guy that entered the league at just 19 years of age.

    In those 205 regular-season contests, he’s notched 28 goals and 67 helpers for 95 points. He’s added an extremely impressive 30 points across just 40 postseason contests as well. Obviously, postseason production doesn’t factor into this vote, but clearly he’s well beyond his career when the games are most difficult.

    While the Dallas offense needs to be able to score some goals to get Heiskanen into this mix (let’s be honest, points are an overwhelming factor in this debate), but they did go from one of the lowest-scoring offenses in the league in 2019-20 to a palatable 18th with 2.79 goals per game last season. Their power play also ranked fifth at 23.7%, and while John Klingberg is the senior power play statesman on that Stars blueline, Heiskanen has eaten his lunch at times and could very well do so again at an increased clip this season. They’ve also shared PP1 duties at times as well, but I see plenty of power-play time coming next season for the youngster.

    Add it up and I’ll roll the dice on a longer shot here in Heiskanen to take down the Norris next season.

    The Bet
    MIRO HEISKANEN
    +1500
    Bet Now!

    Vezina Trophy – Top Goaltender

  • Andrei Vasilevskiy (+200)
  • Marc-Andre Fleury (+600)
  • Philipp Grubauer (+600)
  • Tuukka Rask (+800)
  • Connor Hellebuyck (+800)
  • Carey Price (+1000)
  • Semyon Varlamov (+1000)
  • Thatcher Demko (+1500)
  • Jordan Binnington (+2000)
  • Sergei Bobrovsky (+2500)

To be honest, there’s names off the board here I like much more than some of the available bets, such as the Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin who I predict will have a monster season next year.

Nonetheless, this is what we have to work with for now. The reigning champ here is Vegas’ Marc-Andre Fleury who once again defied the odds and quieted the critics by bouncing back with a 1.98 GAA and .928 Sv% across 36 games while he went on to post a 2.04 GAA and .918 Sv% across 16 postseason contests.

Vasilevskiy wasn’t the Vezina winner, but he did get voted as the a first-team All-Star by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association while the Vezina is voted on by the league’s general managers. Oh, and he won his second Cup in a row, so he’s probably not too heartbroken over failing to win his second career Vezina (2019).

Additional past winners here include Tuukka Rask and Carey Price with Rask winning it in 2014 followed by Price the very next season.

Thatcher Demko (+1500)

The Vezina can prove to be a difficult one to handicap. There hasn’t been a repeat winner since 2007-2008 when the Devils’ Martin Brodeur rattled off two in a row shortly after Dominik Hasek won six of eight from 1994-2001.

Be honest; you didn’t have Fleury winning the Vezina this season. Robin Lehner was signed to a five-year contract prior to the season and Vegas did everything they could to unload the $7M cap hit that comes with Fleury. Instead, it was Fleury who stole the show and forced Peter deBoer’s hand in sticking with him as the 1A option and nearly the full-time postseason option as well.

Now, the argument against Demko here is that Vancouver’s blueline was a dumpster fire last season and the overall defense was one of the league’s worst. However, that was precisely the case when Hellebuyck won the Vezina in 2019 behind a terrible Jets blueline. He kept them in games all season long as the undisputed No. 1, a role that I can see Demko fulfilling this season.

He does have Braden Holtby behind him, but Holtby could be considered for the Kraken expansion draft or traded to a team that needs to expose a goaltender as part of their protection plan. Holtby also turned in a brutal 3.89 GAA and .889 Sv%, so while that doesn’t make him all too attractive to the Kraken, there’s plenty of salary cap gymnastics set to take place before teams submit their protection lists on Saturday.

Rather, it’s Demko’s progression through last season I like the most. He’s long been the goaltender of the future in Vancouver, and proved himself worth of that notion with a .915 Sv% while playing behind perhaps the worst defensive unit in the league. Vancouver ranked 29th in high-danger chances against/60 last season and 30th in scoring chances against/60 while Demko turned in in 8.24 goals saved above average last season, as per Hockey Reference, good for 11th in the league, two spots behind Hellebuyck (10.99).

Priority No. 1 for Canucks general manager Jim Benning is to improve his defense, but with how Demko played last season (2.15 GAA/.937 Sv% in 11 March starts, for example), I think we can roll the dice on an unpredictable award for next season.

The Bet
THATCHER DEMKO
+1500
Bet Now!

Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy – Most Goals Scored

  • Auston Matthews (-110)
  • Connor McDavid (+225)
  • Leon Draisaitl (+400)
  • Mikko Rantanen (+400)
  • Alex Ovechkin (+1200)

It wasn’t quite like McDavid when it came to the points race, but the Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews ran away with the Rocket Richard Trophy last season with his 41 goals finishing eight superior to McDavid’s 33, in four fewer games to boot.

Since he entered the league in the 2016-17 campaign, Matthews’ 199 goals sits second in the NHL, just six behind Ovechkin who has claimed a whopping eight Rocket Richard Trophies in the last 14 years and shared the 2020 award with Boston’s David Pastrnak, so let’s give him 8.5.

Ovechkin and Matthews are the only two on this list with titles under their belt, and while it’s unclear as to why Pastrnak isn’t on this list, let’s pick someone who is.

Auston Matthews (-110)

Despite running away with the trophy last season, I’m not crazy about the value here with Matthews and if I were to fade one award all together, it would be this one. I mean, Ovechkin scored 24 goals last season (but missed time with just 45 games played), but there were also 10 players sandwiched between the 13th-placed Ovechkin and second-place McDavid. Only three goals separated the fifth-placed Rantanen from McDavid.

In other words, there far more candidates in this race and with just five players on Bovada’s board at the moment, we’re not getting our fair pick of the bunch.

Nonetheless, my pick of this litter is Matthews and I believe he’s the best pure goal-scorer in the league. He proved that last season, but if we want to stretch the sample over the last two seasons, he still ranks first with 88 goals and 14 more than second-place Leon Draisaitl. He’s even 20 up on Pastrnak in that time with only four more games played and 16 up on third-place Ovechkin.

The torch is being handed off. Ovechkin is still wildly productive, but he’s taking less and less shots every season while Matthews is on the upswing there. He’s also getting more ice time than ever before under head coach Sheldon Keefe and managed his league-leading 41 tallies despite a nagging wrist injury that forced him to miss a few games but clearly lingered for much of the season.

While there could be more value elsewhere closer to what it hoped to be a normal October start to the 2021-22 NHL regular season, for now I am going with the Maple Leafs’ sniper.

The Bet
AUSTON MATTHEWS
-110
Bet Now!

Jack Adams Award – Best Head Coach

  • Rod Brind’Amour (+160)
  • Barry Trotz (+160)
  • Jon Cooper (+300)
  • Dean Evason (+400)
  • Joel Quenneville (+400)
  • Dominique Ducharme (+1200)

The reigning champ here is former Hurricanes captain Rod Brind’Amour who re-upped with the club on a new three-year deal to remain the clubs’ head coach, as did the Canadiens’ Dominique Ducharme as he saw his interim label removed as part of a shiny three-year pact himself on the heels of a surprising run to the Stanley Cup Final.

Trotz is a mainstay in these conversations as his teams are always competitive with the Islanders coming just one win shy of a Stanley Cup Final themselves as Cooper celebrates back-to-back Cups in Tampa Bay.

With all that in mind, who’s the best bet this time around?

Barry Trotz (+160)

He wasn’t nominated as a finalist for the 2021 Jack Adams as Evason and Quenneville did alongside Brind’Amour, but the Islanders continue to enjoy success under Trotz.

Since Trotz was hired prior to the 2018-19 season, the Islanders rank 10th in the league with 254 regular-season points. Not only that, but he’s stuck right in the minds of voters thanks to back-to-back Eastern Conference Finals appearances and five playoff series wins over the last two seasons, six if you include the qualifying round in the expanded 2020 postseason.

The winner of the 2016 and 2019 Jack Adams Awards along with the 2018 Stanley Cup while with the Washington Capitals, Trotz owns a career 877-635-60-158 wins/losses/ties/OT losses as an NHL head coach. Since taking over the Islanders, he’s gone 115-67-24 (ties have been out of the league since the 2003-04 season) in three seasons after compiling an equally impressive 205-89-34 record as part of a four-year run with the Capitals.

After missing the postseason in each of his first five seasons as an NHL head coach with the Nashville Predators, Trotz-coached clubs have qualified for the playoffs in 14 of 17 seasons including each of the last seven campaigns. Again: all his team do is win.

There’s worthy candidates on the board, but I’ll go with the guy that’s annually at least part of this discussion.

The Bet
BARRY TROTZ
+160
Bet Now!

Lady Byng Trophy – Sportsmanship + High Standard of Playing Ability

  • Auston Matthews (+150)
  • Nathan MacKinnon (+175)
  • Jaccob Slavin (+400)
  • Jared Spurgeon (+400)
  • Ryan O’Reilly (+600)

If there’s a trophy the league needs to ditch, it’s probably this one. I’m all for sportsmanship, but this award doesn’t seem to serve much of a purpose outside of the positive optics the league hopes it carries.

Nonetheless, here we are. Slavin was the winner of the award in 2021 with Matthews and Spurgeon also named finalists. That said, there’s also two more past winners on the board in MacKinnon (2020) and O’Reilly (2014).

Essentially, what this boils down to is the least amount of penalty minutes combined with a high standard of play. For instance, Slavin recored just two penalty minutes last season while going +22. Spurgeon had just six and Matthews 10, so the finalists combined for 18 penalty minutes last season, but the winner boasted the fewest.

Ryan O’Reilly (+600)

We’ll look for Reilly to reel it in here after he gooned it up to the tune of 18 regular-season penalty minutes in the regular season this past year. He’s won it before, and he’s a well-respected player in the league and now the captain of the St. Louis Blues once Alex Pietrangelo departed in free agency prior to last season.

Keep in mind folks, I’m throwing a complete dart when it comes to this one.

The Bet
RYAN O’REILLY
+600
Bet Now!

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