Warriors vs. Spurs: NBA Picks and Predictions

The Golden State Warriors (12-11) look to stay above .500 and close the gap in a tight Western Conference with the San Antonio Spurs (13-10) on Monday night. The Warriors are coming off a 134-132 loss to Dallas on Saturday in which Steph Curry scored 57 points. The Spurs have won two in a row, last beating Houston 111-106 on Saturday.

Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs

Monday, February 08, 2021 – 08:30 PM EST at AT&T Center

These teams will meet again in the same building on Tuesday night, but for this first matchup, sportsbooks are going with a pick ‘em. The Warriors won the only other meeting this season, 121-99 in Golden State on January 20th. Curry scored 26 points in that one as the Spurs shot an abysmal 4-of-33 (.121) from three-point land, their worst game since October 21, 2017.

Can Warriors’ Small Ball Win in San Antonio?

While these teams played each other not even three weeks ago, injuries have changed the way this matchup will look. Golden State rookie center James Wiseman will miss his fourth game in a row with a wrist injury. He had his first-career 20-point game against the Spurs last time. LaMarcus Aldridge (hip) has missed the last two games for the Spurs, but the team still won both games.

With those players out, you can expect the Warriors to keep playing more small ball, which they are better suited to than the Spurs. Draymond Green has thrived in Wiseman’s absence the last three games. He had a season-high 11 rebounds against the Celtics, a season-high 15 assists in both games in Dallas, and a season-high 11 points in the one win in Dallas.

Both teams rank in the top 10 in Defensive Rating this season, but the Warriors allow the second-lowest field goal percentage (.492) on two-point shots. They are one of four defenses allowing under 50% on those plays.

The Warriors should look to push the pace in this matchup. The Spurs allow a league-high 31.1% of their field goal attempts against to come on layups. Remember that when looking at the NBA lines.

Where Do the Spurs Find an Edge?

While both teams are in the top 10 in fastest pace, they do allow a lot of rebounds to opponents. The Spurs rank first and the Warriors rank third in opponent rebounds per 100 possessions this season. The Spurs are 1-9 when they lose the rebounding battle by at least seven boards compared to 12-1 when the margin is better than minus-seven.

However, the Warriors have only won rebounding by seven boards four times this season in 23 games. That does include the first matchup with San Antonio (plus-11), but that is really an outlier in this team’s season. This is also not an area where losing Aldridge hurts as he was only averaging a career-low 4.3 rebounds per game this season, a far cry from his peak days in Portland. The Spurs might be fine on the boards in this one, so that shouldn't sway the direction of our sports betting.

San Antonio must shoot better from three this time around, but the last three games have not been hot (.318). None of the main three-point shooters for the Spurs average 14 points per game this season, and DeMar DeRozan (20.5) is the team’s only player averaging at least 15 points per game. He is coming off back-to-back 30-point games, but only scored half of that in Golden State last time.

The Spurs usually protect the ball well, averaging the fewest turnovers per game in the league. The Spurs also commit the fewest personal fouls per game while the Warriors commit the most, so that could be an edge in this one.

Prediction

While this game has fluctuated from the Spurs as a 1-point favorite to a pick ‘em, FiveThirtyEight sees it differently with the Spurs as a 4-point favorite in their RAPTOR spread system. They also give them a solid 66% win probability.

The good news is Curry should come down from his 57-point cloud and the Spurs shouldn’t have their worst three-point shooting game in three years again like the last matchup. The bad news is the Warriors are hot on offense right now while the Spurs are a bit limited as a scoring team.

Golden State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games and covered easily as a 1-point favorite three weeks ago against these Spurs. San Antonio is 1-3 ATS over the last four games. For my NBA picks, I am going to trust Curry to stay hot enough to get this road win for the Warriors in what should be a close game.

NBA Pick: Warriors Moneyline (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Warriors ML(-110)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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