UFC Fighter Focus: Leon Edwards, Jonathan Martinez, and Manel Kape

The UFC does have an event coming up this Saturday night from Las Vegas, Nevada but I admit it doesn’t seem very appealing after what was, on paper, the highest level UFC event of all time.

Looking at the card this week from both a fan and a bettor’s perspective, the interest is sparse. Sometimes, though, things aren’t always as they seem and book covers are overrated.

Heck, at least there’s no fools gold blinding us with a glare as we look at the betting lines for this week’s UFC Fight Night Las Vegas card. We are just going to have to do some digging to find the value on this betting card.

My first martial arts coach had a million of those sayings and they have stuck with me. Something that has helped me over the years break down a fight more efficiently and effectively is simply focusing on one of the fighters.

It doesn’t matter if it’s the underdog or the favorite. Just break down this fighter, their personality, their record, where they train, habits, weaknesses, strength, etc. When we are breaking them down solely, there is no comparison to bias our opinions.

COVID-19 has been a big part of this as he has tested positive and came out saying that it was affecting him months later. He has lost opponents to COVID-19 as well including the new kid on the mat, Khamzat Chimaev.

Leon had been training for that fight so I know he is in shape. He has also posted some pictures that are just ridiculous. The guy looks better than ever. Here is one from his IG page. Scary.

1. He is really good
2. Casual fans don’t know who he is so he wouldn’t sell very well

I am excited to see him return to the Octagon on Saturday night. We bet him to win in his last fight against Rafael dos Anjos at nearly even money. That was a steal as Leon had some trouble but was in control of the former world champion for the majority of the fight.

125 pound prospect from Angola, Manel Kape. He was a popular bet to get the win over UFC veteran Alexandre Pantoja and he had his chances but low output and possibly some Octagon jitters got him.

Manel showed how talented he is, though, and Pantoja is really good. He has only lost to the best fighters in the division.

Manel is getting another chance to get his first Octagon win when he fights on the main card this Saturday night from sunny Las Vegas, Nevada.

Rounding out our Fighters to Focus on this week is a guy who never seems to get the push from the company as he should.

The Colorado-trained mixed martial artist naturally has a sensational gas tank and solid pressure Muay Thai that you see from many fighters who have come out of that state including Donald Cowboy Cerrone and Justin Gaethje.

BetOnline.AG will provide the betting lines for these fighters’ matchups. Let’s break down each individual firstly and then apply that knowledge to our betting odds for a more effective handicap of their fight.

Jonathan Martinez

Jonathan Martinez is originally from Plainview, Texas which is in the sticks nestled in between Amarillo and Lubbock. West Texas has always been a place for tough guys so you know Martinez is a gamer.

Martinez came up fighting on the regional scene in Oklahoma and Texas before he tasted defeat for the first time against fellow UFC stablemate Matt Schnell in “Danger’s” home state of Louisiana.

The loss came by way of disqualification, though, from an illegal knee from Martinez so he still hadn’t been beaten.

In his first fight inside of the Octagon, though, Jonathan lost a unanimous decision to Andre Soukhamthath.

That isn’t the best look but Andre gives people tough fights even if he doesn’t win a lot of them. Since then, though, he is 4-1 with his only loss coming by way of split decision to Andre Ewell. I don’t like Jonathan’s losses but I understand that he is still growing as a fighter.

Jonathan is still just 26 years old and shows us at least one new wrinkle to his overall MMA game every fight. He fights out of the southpaw position and has a gnarly left body kick that eats up livers like a channel cat.

Martinez’s weakness is that he is hittable but if he has the reach advantage on his opponent, I like his chances as the volume and effectiveness of his kicking game can easily be the difference in the fight.

His opponent on Saturday night, England’s Dangerous Davey Grant, is a journeyman at this point in the 36 year old’s career despite only having 16 pro fights, 12 of those as wins.

Grant does pack some power in his hands even though he is known for his grappling prowess so Jonathan will have to be wary of the ginger bombs that will be flying his way. Davey will also more than likely be looking to get this fight to the mat.

That is the biggest question here. Can the Brit take down and control the American on the ground?

Currently, Jonathan Martinez is a (-305) favorite with The Brit Davey Grant coming in live at (+255). To say Davey isn’t live here would be an outright lie.

If Jonathan had a dominating style of fighting like cage control, followed by a trip to the mat, and from there pressuring his opponent until a mistake is made and he capitalizes-then I think he would be worth the 3 to 1.

Currently, Martinez to win by decision is in the plus money at (+125). I like this spot even though both men are gamers and will primarily be striking for the entire match. Grant has pretty solid striking defense and will hopefully steal some time against the cage for us.

Manel Kape

This young man of just 27 years old already has 20 professional mixed martial arts bouts, 15 of those being wins. He debuted fighting on the regional scene in Portugal and after amassing a record of 8-1, he took the show to The Land of the Rising Sun and fought for the RIZIN organization.

After going just 3-3 in his first 6 fights with the promotion, albeit against some of Japan’s best fighters, he put together 3 consecutive victories and that’s when the UFC came calling.

I was really surprised that they gave him such a difficult test in his first fight. The difference in the way they build some fighters up and some not is polarizing. Think about heavyweight prospect Tom Aspinall. His first two opponents weren’t even UFC level and the next guy he fights is 42 years old.

They baby some guys but not Manel Kape. The explosive striker has another tough test on his hands at this week’s UFC Fight Night event.

Matheus Nicolau is also in his prime of 27 years old like Manel Kape. Matheus, fighting out of Bello Horizonte, Brazil is a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter reality show (Brazil Season 4).

He won his first 3 of 4 fights with the promotion before he was strangely cut from the company. Looking at his Tapology, it appears that he had two fights cancelled right before he was let go. I guess he pulled out or turned down two fights and his fighting days inside the Octagon were going to have to wait.

If you’re looking for value on Manel Kape, it may be gone on the moneyline. These two opened up at even odds for both men but the dough has rolled in on the Angola native fighting out of Portugal.

You can follow the narrative on the method of victory lines and do well. We have surely taken this approach before and been successful but if you want real value, then you have to go against the narrative.

We aren’t that far from it, though. I’m not saying the guy is going to get a submission or anything but betting on a favorite to get a decision win in the FLYWEIGHT division isn’t that far fetched.

You’re giving me 3 to 1 odds too? Okay.

Leon Edwards

Leon is the best Welterweight UFC fighter that you have probably either never heard of or just seen fight a few times. If this isn’t true for you, then even better. That means we have some hardcore-ish fans in the bunch and I’m all for the increase in popularity of the sport.

Y’all must have forgot…

🇬🇧 @Leon_EdwardsMMA is ready to put everyone on notice. #UFCVegas21 pic.twitter.com/u1CFubgUYk

— UFC (@ufc) March 10, 2021

Leon Edwards’ time is quickly passing by, though, and he needs to compete at the highest level and right now! The Kingston, Jamaica born and Birmingham raised and trained Edwards is a calculating capable striker with excellent elbows from the clinch to compliment his outstanding takedown defense.

Leon had a rough childhood both growing up in Jamaica and after he and his family moved to England when he was just 9 years old. His father was a criminal and it appeared that Rocky was following right along in his footsteps as a teenager until his mother saved his life with his first martial arts class.

Leon went straight into MMA and it shows in his game.

You can’t look at his fights and his style and say oh he’s a boxer, kickboxer, wrestler, or submission guy. He isn’t excellent in any one area, though, and at the highest level, this is where being the better all around fighter can work against you.

At the highest level, you have guys like Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman who have been wrestling their entire lives. Rocky can do all the extra work he wants in the gym. It isn’t going to make up for the 15 years of super spongy training as a youth.

Leon has fought Kamaru Usman already and surprise surprise, the wrestling was the difference.

His biggest win came against dangerous dominating striker Vicente Luque and Leon also was too much for an elder Cowboy Cerrone and most recently, Rafael dos Anjos. He has a split decision win over Gunnar Nelson in between those two fights but other than that, he doesn’t have a lot of quality wins.

Leon is long for the division and tall at 6’2” with a 74 inch reach. I don’t know about 6’2”. I have also read 6’ even so we will see how he looks in the staredowns on Friday.

Who will he be staring down?

Don’t tell me you didn’t “Remember the Name Muhammad”?

This is my destiny pic.twitter.com/CrkVOnRdOR

— Belal Muhammad (@bullyb170) March 10, 2021

Belal not only has one of the most creative and cool nicknames on the roster but his gas tank ranks up there in the 95% or better percentile.

Belal is aggressive and throws heat. Many people think this is a great stylistic matchup for Rocky as his wrestling should be good enough to defend the inevitable shots and trip attempts from Muhammad.

I don’t know, though. I am trying not to let the now out of control betting line affect my prediction on a winner. If Rocky was (-140), I would jump all over it without hesitation with a 3 unit play but his betting odds are more than double that price.

A massive chunk of cash has come in on the dog out of Chicago. Leon was more than a 3 to 1 favorite but now his odds are down to (-266) at BetOnline. The market is still predicted to level off at nearly (-300) for the Brit.

This Saturday! @Leon_EdwardsMMA has finally returned 👏 #UFCVegas21 pic.twitter.com/vjWb0RBmg4

— UFC (@ufc) March 9, 2021

I think that line is preposterous. Rocky didn’t have that easy of a time with Rafy dos Anjos. The Brazilian out-struck Edwards at range and had a better landing percentage 47% to 42%. Leon had to pull the takedowns out of the bag to secure the victory.

I don’t think he will be able to do the same to Belal who is younger, taller, more explosive, more aggressive, and a better wrestler than RDA. Leon was also taken down 3 times by Gunnar Nelson just a couple of fights ago.

Nelson is a great grappler but his strengths are more so in his submission game than his actual ability to get the fight to the mat. I would line this fight with Rocky as the favorite at around (-165) with Belal on the comeback at (+135).

You have to take into account that Edwards hasn’t fought inside of the Octagon for 20 months. That is a very long time for a 27 year old fighter who has championship potential, or at least that’s how he is being sold.

Belal Muhammad, conversely, has fought 3 times and won each fight since Edwards last competed in MMA.

Get ready! Main event @BullyB170 is on his way 🕶 #UFCVegas21 pic.twitter.com/VtFOh3EMBB

— UFC (@ufc) March 9, 2021

Granted, Belals’ recent wins have not been against former champions like RDA and whenever Belal has got that step up in competition, he has fallen short.

Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal have both beaten him and it’s arguable that Rocky has a similar style. Edwards, while being well rounded as we said, does prefer to strike and so do Neal and Luque.

I worry about the cardio of Edwards, though, in a 5 round fight with those post Covid-19 lungs. Against a guy like Muhammad who is going to take you out of your comfort heart rate zone and likely drag you into the deep waters, you’re going to need to be able to use some oxygen.

Leon is forever at sea level also and many of the gyms in the UK have been closed off and on for a year now. The round totals are skewed heavily towards this one going the distance which I’m not entirely sure about.

Something tells me these two men are going to scrap.

“Show the world just how good I am.” 🌏

There’s something to prove on Saturday night. #UFCVegas21 pic.twitter.com/VQKWzJlKFy

— UFC (@ufc) March 10, 2021

Belal is such a pressure fighter that he is either going to make you tired enough to where you give him something to take home or is simply too aggressive and gets caught.

I like Belal Muhammad on the moneyline here. Not many people are agreeing with me but he doesn’t have nearly 2 years of rust. He barely has 2 WEEKS! Muhammad is coming off of an incredible performance against a tall Muay Thai striker somewhat similar albeit on a lower level to Edwards in Diego Lima.

Wait on the betting line, though. It is projected to go back in the favor of Leon here and we will probably be able to get Muhammad at 2.5 to 1 if we wait.

In Conclusion

Well, now you know, and knowing is half the battle.

If you aren’t familiar with this saying then I don’t know what else to tell you. Cartoons like GI Joe used to teach us lessons like sticks and stones will never break our bones but words will always hurt us.

That’s how it goes, right? Asking for a friend.

If you weren’t familiar with the UFC Fight Night Las Vegas headliner Leon Edwards, then you are now. He is on track to challenge for a world title but Belal Remember the Name Muhammad is standing in his way.

𝙒𝙀𝙇𝙏𝙀𝙍𝙒𝙀𝙄𝙂𝙃𝙏 𝙎𝙃𝙊𝙒𝘿𝙊𝙒𝙉.

Whose win streak survives ’til Sunday? #UFCVegas21 pic.twitter.com/fPounmDAKk

— UFC (@ufc) March 10, 2021

He isn’t going to move either. I expect Belal to keep his forehead in the chest of Rocky and try to catch him standing tall as he does sometimes with looping shots over the top. As Edwards defends these, that’s when Belal is hoping the hips will be forward and there for the taking.

Jonathan Martinez out of Factory X Muay Thai has some filthy kicks and could crack the gamer Grant at any point. Davey is tough, though, and Jonathan will have to be selective of his strikes, especially those with his legs, as Grant will be looking to take this fight to the floor.

Hopefully, this leads to less action but still a unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards for our focused fighter, Jonathan Martinez.

Finally, we broke down the Angolan/Portuguese fighter, Manel Kape.

Another day of hard sparring, thank you guys for helping me evolve and show me that I still need to work more and more …
very soon I’ll be back to the cage.#thediceteam#akathailand #americankickboxingacademy #starboyufc pic.twitter.com/HwXcYUo1XA

— マネル・ケイプ Manel Kape (@ManelKape) March 2, 2021

He is a fiery powerful striker but lacks volume at times. The former is giving us great value on a Kape by decision line and the latter is a big box checked for our bet.

This, of course, isn’t true for everyone and it isn’t the sole reason anyone is a winner or loser but it is a thing and in the science of knockouts, it counts for a lot.

I like the value here on Kape to get the W by decision on Saturday. The Martinez by decision line doesn’t pay nearly as well but it is still 3x more affordable than his moneyline.

Get your bets in now for those two and wait on the Muhammad moneyline to fatten up.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!