UFC Fighter Focus: Adrian Yanez, Grant Dawson, and JP Buys

UFC Fight Night is this weekend from Las Vegas, NV at the company’s Apex facility. It took a bit but I love what the market has done this week.

More often than not, waiting to make a play at the end of the week vs earlier will yield less value. When you wait, though, you do get to see the line movement and that usually makes up for the loss in value.

This week has been strange, though, because I disagree with a lot of the line moves. I know it is a tricky card and that’s why the books and bettors are all over the place but it seems to be coming together now.

I want to focus on 3 of this weekend’s fighters as well as their odds and likelihood to get the win.

The first of the three is JP Buys, a young grappler fighting out of South Africa. His wife Cheyenne is also on the card as one of the biggest favorites. Both are incredibly talented and both are set up against opponents where they have a clear path to victory.

Buys makes no bones about his style. He wants to take you down, control you, and likely work towards a submission if not a ground and pound finish or decision victory. He was unsuccessful in his first fight for Dana White’s Contender Series but he worked his way back and now he is the betting favorite against an athlete in Bruno Silva who has been in there with some of the Bantamweight Division’s best grapplers.

Please Note:
Grant Dawson is a highly touted prospect out of James Krause’s Glory MMA just outside of Kansas City. Grant’s strengths are his wrestling ability and cardio which is probably the most feared combination of attributes in mixed martial arts today.

I don’t mind taking a butt whooping if I prepared and the guy is just better than me but if he is beating me up AND I’m tired, now that sucks. Vince Lombardi said that fatigue makes cowards of us all. Well, that makes me feel better.

His opponent, Leo Santos, while a more than capable grappler himself, showed major cardio concerns in his last fight and is 41 years old. Look up the best 5k times by age in the world and endurance along with speed and reaction time decreases drastically as athletes enter their late 30s and early 40s.

Santos has excellent submissions, solid takedown defense, and enough power and skill on the feet to defeat the rising star.

We will see what happens.

Lastly, Adrian Yanez is one of the slickest boxers to join the ranks of the UFC in the past couple of years. His dad was a pro and Adrian has been learning the sweet science since a very young age.

I really like how calm he is in there as well and he showed that he can do it with his legs as well when he finished Victor Rodriguez in the first round with a head kick. He will be fighting Gustavo Lopez, a very well rounded guy with a solid top game and overall toughness about him who is actually looking better than ever.

He doesn’t appear to have the ceiling, though, that Yanez does and that will probably be evident on Saturday night.

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for this matchup. Let’s take a look at those, and make some predictions for these three warriors.

JP Buys

JP Buys, pronounced “baze”, is a fierce competitor out of South Africa who wants nothing more than to take his opponents down to the mat and smesh them. You have to love it unless, of course, you’re standing across the Octagon from him.

Bruno Silva is a gamer, though, and he was wisely chosen by matchmakers for this fight because of his toughness and grit.

He is also a black belt on the mat so JP won’t be able to just cut through him for a dominant position and get the finish. At least, I don’t think so.

What worries me when thinking of betting on JP here is the level of competition that Bruno Silva has faced. He has still lost, though, and he was losing to fighters with the same skill sets/strength and weaknesses of JP. I like the South African here but his betting line of (-140) requires us to say that we confidently believe he will win at least 2 out of 3 times.

I’m with that. I think that is where the line should be, actually. So, we are getting some solid value here.

Also, take the fight goes to a decision betting line for the same price.

The Bets
Buys
-140
Fight Goes to Decision
-140

Grant Dawson

We all keep hearing James Krause this and Glory MMA that. The fighter/coach and cornerman is now one of the most respected men at what he does in the game today.

James also bets MMA fights a lot and when asked what his pick of the week was for Saturday night’s fights, he didn’t hesitate to give the name of Grant Dawson. He is, of course, biased but he also knows his fighter better than anyone. Dawson is moving up in weight to fight one of the most decorated submission grapplers in the UFC’s Lightweight Division. The age is difference is massive and large enough to make this a 70/30 fight off the top.

Then you give one guy the wrestling advantage and he’s also a cardio freak? That’s enough for me here.

The Bets
Dawson

Adrian Yanez

Adrian could be a future title challenger one day. We know he has the ability to do things inside the Octagon, namely light people up with world class hands, that other fighters simply can’t do.

If his takedown defense can hold up to the best the Bantamweight Division can offer then I think the ski is the limit for this kid. His opponent on Saturday night, Gustavo Lopez, is a former training partner of mine who gave a great account of himself in his UFC debut opposite the Georgian takedown machine, Merab Dvalishvili.

That was an outstanding display of defensive grappling, heart, and also conditioning. Gustavo isn’t the fastest guy or the strongest or even the most skilled so he has to bridge that gap to the other competitors with being a sound fighter.

He isn’t an easy out for anyone but he does go ham so don’t think a decision prop is a lock or anything. I like his moneyline at (-220) as well as the over 1.5 rounds at (-150).

The Bets
Yanez
-220
Over 1.5 rounds
-150

In Conclusion

These are surely three fighters to watch this weekend as the UFC continues to put these fight night events together in order to promote their new generation. The company did enjoy having guys like Arlovski and Overeem on fight cards for the name recognition but enough is enough.

Please Note:
Mixed martial arts is the fastest growing sport in the world and better and better athletes are getting involved at younger and younger ages. It is only a matter of time until super athletes dominate the sport.

Until then, though, we still have some technical guys and gals and also the brawlers of the bunch that get by on their heart and determination.

I suppose those fighters will always be there but their numbers are decreasing at the highest level every day.

  • Grant Dawson leads the way for UFC prospects or at least that’s what we are told. I think the guy is very solid and his cardio advantage which should be a significant one will likely lead to him wearing down his Brazilian foe.
  • I really like Yanez as well but maybe not too early as Gustavo Lopez is quite durable. The latter does go after it early, though, but he has a strong team at Xtreme Couture that knows his best chance is to take the young man into the deep waters.
  • JP Buys may have the highest ceiling of them all but he is going to have to show us a little more in order to prove it.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/ufc-fighter-focus-adrian-yanez-grant-dawson-and-jp-buys/

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