UFC 266 is coming up and I think we have a lot of good reads, not great reads but with the odds where they are now with a lot of affordable favorites and pick’em fights where the argument for value can be made for each side.
An absolute banger of a rematch that has FOTN written all over it 💥
[ #UFC266 | Sep. 25 🎟 Tickets: https://t.co/I1ZxQ5WYvu ] pic.twitter.com/Ckc6g03ieW
— UFC (@ufc) August 9, 2021
We will see because I am trying to step outside of my ego as much as possible and stop thinking like a handicapper all the time. It is important to think that way but there is so much more to the game than just focusing on ourselves.
We have to think like a Wall Street trader at times. We have to think like a mixed martial artist, of course, and also a coach/cornerman. We need to think as the online bookmakers do.
Lately, though, we have been focusing in on what the company wants. We are getting into the head of matchmakers Sean Shelby and Mick Maynard.
You have to first think like your enemy to understand them and then comes even more understanding about yourself and so on but I will shut up and let Sun expound upon this theory even more.
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
It’s not a long book, guys. If you never read it, it will only take you a day or two to wrap it up and you can bookmark several spots that you can come back to and make improvements in your life from there.
I want to know them as well as I know myself and we have already been picking up on trends and even identified when the online sportsbooks were completely on tilt.
Ian Heinisch…they had him as a 1.5 to 1 underdog in his first two UFC fights after his cake debut. He was losing those fights until he showed that his attributes of conditioning, strength, heart, and will are enough to carry him to victory over those who may be lacking in those same areas.
The guy has attributes, though, yes, but no skills. Okay, he has skills but they certainly aren’t on a top 20 of his division level skills. He was then made the betting favorite against much better wrestlers like Omari Akhmedov and Derek Brunson.
That’s when the books, who were clearly on tilt, got burned again. Now, they were 0-4 on Ian Heinisch. He got a big step down in competition and a great matchup stylistically against Gerald Meerschaert who he dispatched with an overhand right in the first round.
He only closed as a small favorite for that fight and they missed that one again. If you followed this as closely as we had, you could see that they were overcorrecting and overcorrecting from that and they still have yet to get him right.
Next up was Nassourdine Imavov who has Ian beat everywhere. He has as much skill in the wrestling department as Ian if not more and matches him where Heinisch usually beats guys in the strength and conditioning department.
Yet, the sportsbooks made Ian the considerable betting favorite in that matchup and we screamed at the whole world to bet our boy Nas like it was ‘93 at betting odds of (+145)! That was easy work and easy money.
Ian really didn’t have more than a puncher’s chance in that fight and the Dagestani-born Frenchman was actually the only guy to get him out of there inside the distance in Ian’s entire run with the UFC.
We were just picking the fights a year ago but now we are getting in tune with what our enemies are thinking and that is just making us more efficient, effective, and dangerous! I love it. We will be using odds from our friends at Betonline!
UFC 266 From a Betting Perspective
Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker
Who do you guys think the betting favorite should be here?
Thiago Santos is the more experienced and more accomplished fighter but looking back at his record competing inside of the Octagon, he has always been a little flakey. He certainly has some losses to fighters he should have beaten, especially when you consider that he took Jon Jones to a razor-close decision.
He did that with a jacked-up knee too! And jacked up isn’t really the word. Thiago tore or should I say Jon Jones kicked him and tore 4 ligaments I believe. Meniscus, LCL, MCL, and PCL! There was probably a patellar tendon thrown in there as well.
What was so extraordinary about this performance is that it happened early early on in the fight and Thiago just fought through it for round after round. What a warrior!
He hasn’t really been the same guy, though, after that.
You see it with a lot of world title challengers after the champ beats them, although it isn’t like he got dusted by Bones or anything. I had it a razor-close fight and if they want to play that “You have to beat the champ to be the champ” thing then let them sing it.
Thiago has been through a lot of wars in his day and he isn’t the best takedown artist which could leave him in a striking battle with the younger, faster, taller, longer mixed martial artist in Johnny Walker.
Walker burst onto the scene in the UFC with one highlight-reel knockout after another and seemingly put the entire UFC Light Heavyweight Division on notice until his hype train was slightly derailed by a series of knockouts.
It appeared that he was more of a glass cannon than anything but is that still true? I am not going to say it isn’t but I will say this. Thiago Santos is also a glass cannon and that is especially true now at his age and with him coming off of several injuries in a row.
I don’t think you can trust either fighter to win at a top 20 level in this weight class because it is becoming more and more competitive at 205 by the day. More Europeans and giant Viking men are getting involved with the sport and the frames of these monsters have changed the game.
Johnny Bones Jones is a fighter who left his home at Light Heavyweight after never losing a fight because of these guys. He isn’t stupid. He would rather take his chances with Francis Ngannou and Cyril Gane than have to deal with such a speed disadvantage at 205.
He was okay with it before because nobody could match his reach. Now we have more and more long, strong, and fast fighters standing at 6’4” or taller who can match him in some areas and pass him in others.
Johnny and Thiago could go either way. I give Santos the advantage at maybe 55/45 but his age takes that back down to 50/50.
We have some betting value on Johnny Walker at (+135). I wouldn’t jump at those betting odds just yet, though.
I don’t necessarily agree with this so let’s let the value flow and get an even bigger payout because putting our money on Walker is something I told myself I wouldn’t do again.
Instead, let’s use that same never again, he failed me as a favorite, betting bias against them. I think the books and the public will both be for Thiago Santos here so our odds on a Johnny Walker underdog bet only get better with time.
Valentina Shevchenko vs Lauren Murphy
Alright, I guess I shouldn’t waste too much of your time today with this pick. Lauren Murphy is a very very tough woman but as you know, Valentina Shevchenko is one of if not the greatest female fighter of all time.
I know, Amanda Nunes this and Amanda Nunes that. I get it. She is a force and has two wins over Valentina in her UFC career so how could Bullet be better than Lioness?
Valentina is way better than Lauren Murphy, though, and she will prove that at UFC 266 in late September. She will show out and unfortunately, there aren’t any betting lines available currently for method of victory props or over/under round totals.
So, we can’t go our normal route of taking Val to win by finish. Murphy is tough but she is slow in the striking realm with her hands and feet so if Tina wants to take advantage of her opponent there, she very well can but she can also take her down and work from the top position.
Curtis Blaydes vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Boy oh boy, the online sportsbooks didn’t learn their lesson with Curtis Blaydes in his last fight when Derrick Lewis smashed him with one punch. We still haven’t seen him come back from that yet so I certainly won’t be laying the kind of juice they want you to on Curtis Blaydes here.
He is a force in the wrestling department but Jairzinho has very good takedown defense as well as one-punch power and he loves to counter hard just like Derrick Lewis does. Here are the massively wide betting odds I am talking about.
(-335) for Curtis Blaydes and (+275) the comeback on the underdog, Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The latter has an 80% takedown defense percentage which is great but he was taken down twice in each fight by strikers, Alistair Overeem and Cyril Gane.
That isn’t a good look going into a matchup against Curtis Blaydes but in the large Octagon in a 5 round fight which both favor the Suranimese mixed martial artist. That American wrestling, though…I don’t know if you guys saw the Olympics but ‘Merica rasslin’ cleaned up! That was great to see because it is one of the oldest sports and events as well as one of the most practical and organic.
The line is still off, though, so I am certainly not getting behind our boy Blaydes at this price. Maybe some more money pours in on him and we end up taking a flyer out on Jairzinho.
Nick Diaz vs Robbie Lawler
I told you guys to jump on Nick here when his betting odds were up around (+145). What a solid play! Robbie is older and has more miles. Nick has taken time off, yes, and this one will only be a 3 round fight which, of course, favors Robbie.
So, you have to think that Lawler may win the first round on some calf kicks or something like that, something new, and something to keep Nick off of him. It is really hard to win your first fight back after years away and winning the first round of that first fight back is even more unlikely.
Lawler has 20 years of mileage, though, and against around 10 for Diaz. 20 years as a professional mixed martial artist is something special.
We have to make note of it, though, especially fighting someone as fresh as Nick Diaz who is coming off of a big break. Let’s give Robbie the first round, though. He is a bad man and obviously a seasoned vet as well as a South Florida fighter so I can see him countering the heavy lead foot style of the boxing-centric Nick Diaz with some low kicks early on.
We have some fun fights ahead including this one between Nick Diaz and I think he will make Robbie trade with him like he did the first fight.
Diaz is the cleaner boxer, has better cardio, the younger fighter, and has always been a more durable guy in there as well. Robbie and his group of coaches at American Top Team will likely have a couple tricks up their sleeve and you don’t need many to work in your favor to steal a 3 round decision against a slow starter coming off of a massive layoff like Nick Diaz.
Alex Volkanovski vs Brian Ortega
People need to put some respect on Brian Ortega’s name…Or should they be doing it for the world champ instead?
Remember how good Max Holloway is?! Well, Alex V beat him not once but twice! Oh, and I know MMA math isn’t arithmetically correct but Ortega got beaten to a pulp by Max.
Ortega is a BJJ guy at heart, hence the T-City nickname which is short for Triangle City because he loves that choke so much. I do too but man, if you don’t get the tap, your legs are toast after that.
I can remember my second grappling tournament where I won the no-gi side submitting everyone with a triangle but not without some work to get the finish. My legs are long and flexible but lack strength so…I was rolling right along in the gi bracket when my hammies just couldn’t do it anymore. One locked up and then the other mid-roll and I couldn’t do much else other than hang on. Everyone there knew what the deal was. They had seen me struggling to finish 5+ guys prior to that and knew it was only a matter of time before the cramps set in.
T City likely won’t be going for many triangles against Volk as this one may play out on the feet mostly. I don’t see Ortega getting him down and I don’t think Volk is going to want to take that fight there either so a Muay Thai fight!
That’s what’s up. Brian has been training with Kevin Ross, one of the pioneers of American Muay Thai, who actually just retired. Shout to him and his girlfriend Gina Carano, another pioneer herself.
Max only really brought the boxing to the table against Volk and Ortega is going to be coming at that dude with all 8 limbs. I know that because that is essentially his only chance to win this fight on the feet.
Brian has that IT factor, though! I know you guys know what I’m talking about. He was an amazing BJJ student so he is an even better student of the sweet science. Look at him here working that uppercut we already know is lethal.
In Conclusion
UFC 266 is going to be a heck of a show! It stinks we have to wait until the end of next month to see it. I don’t know why the UFC is spacing the pay per view events out as much as they are but as the aforementioned Max Blessed Holloway would say, it is what it is, dog.
As for betting this far ahead of the show, I am not mad at a play on Nick Diaz because I think more money will come in on him and our value window is closing so make a move! Jairzinho is supposed to lose on paper but the betting odds for that fight are wider than all sides. I would wait, though, because some people are going to be putting the favorite in a parlay and we could get even sexier betting odds during fight week.
I am on Ortega and Nick Diaz here as a couple of BJJ boxers who might make the difference with their kicks. Yep. I think Nick should come out early like Conor McGregor did in his first fight opposite Dustin Porier and throw some of his Karate stuff to counteract my guy.
https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/ufc-266-betting-preview/
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