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UFC 265 Parlay Party – August 7

August 7, 2021
financialfreedomllc20
UFC 265 Parlay Party – August 7

UFC 265 is this weekend and I am pretty hyped for the Interim Heavyweight World Title fight between two strikers yet two oppositely styled strikers in Derrick The Black Beast Lewis and Cyril Bon Gamin Gane.

Derrick Lewis will be fighting in front of his hometown crowd on the third coast in H Town Houston, Texas and probably shouldn’t be feeling a ton of nerves because he is now more than a 3 to 1 underdog heading into the matchup with the Parisian, Gane.

I am sure there is something there. This fight is for the Interim belt so plenty on the line and he already has a “win” over the current world champion at the 265 pound weight limit, Francis The Predator Ngannou.

I used the quotation marks because if you saw that “fight” then you understand that it was the most uneventful and disappointing contest the UFC has ever put on by far.

There have been other duds, sure, but fans couldn’t help but get excited because those two men are easily the two hardest hitting heavyweight fighters in the history of mixed martial arts. I would love to see that fight happen again because there is now way it can be as bad as the first time around.

Or could it?

But first, we must cover UFC 265 and crown an Interim champ. Will it be the former training partner of Francis, Cyril Gane, or will The Black Beast hoist the belt in front of his hometown crowd.

We really can’t lose because Derrick performs best when he is the betting underdog and he will truly test the chin and will of the Frenchman. The betting line has gotten a little ridiculous as the favorite, Gane, has betting odds nearing 4 to 1 and that is just too rich for me and I hope all of you guys. Don’t bet on him at that price and I wouldn’t try to get cute with a method of victory either because he is a very calculated and intelligent fighter, Gane is, that he doesn’t mind boring the crowd and millions of fans watching at home.

With that said, Derrick Lewis isn’t the type of guy to let this one go to the judges’ scorecards knowing he is losing. He knew he was winning against Ngannou evenif it was by a significant strike count of 3 to 1 per round but against Cyril, I think he will be farther behind on the points and is almost certainly going to need a finish inside of the scheduled 25 minutes.

This is a parlay blog so am I setting up a parlay with Cyril Gane as an anchor?

No way, Jose Aldo. This isn’t the best card for a lengthy parlay but we do have some spots and I have just been burned 3 too many times by Derrick Lewis in the past to bet against him here. If you want some action on the main event, take The Black Beast to win by TKO.

(+450)! This number really surprises me because with Derrick’s moneyline at (+287) at the moment over at BetOnline.AG, you would think that virtually his only path to victory in the fight would not eclipse (+350) but it does.

Hmm…
We must ask ourselves why. Why is it not at (+350)? I say because the online sportsbooks are gambling a bit here and baiting us with a higher number. I have noticed this before and lots of sharps have taken the bait.

I can’t say I blame them. I love Lewis and it is such a crappy feeling to see him sleep a guy like Curtis Blaydes and then not even be able to join in on the celebration and laugh at his post fight interview because we just lost our final bet of the night.

On the big juicy favorite at that.

All up in the feels, today. Emotions are the enemy, though, and it is easy for us to get behind such a warm and funny teddy bear character like Lewis. And for me, rooting against a Frenchman has never really been a challenge.

I like Bon Gamin, though, as a fighter and personality. He seems like he is the total package. Well, almost. The one thing he seems to lack is the one skill that Derrick Lewis has over virtually every other mixed martial artist on the planet and I think you know what that is.

No, it isn’t his comedy although the man is pure gold.

I am talking, of course, about punching power. Derrick doesn’t get enough credit for his smarts either. He may talk like a country boy but he isn’t stupid. That guy knows what he is doing and he is now as popular for his one liners as he is his knockout wins inside the Octagon, which he now has more of than any other fighter in UFC history.

Let’s look at some parlays today. I have a few fighters I am pretty confident in that I want to throw in there.

BetOnline.AG has the odds for us so let’s not waste any more time before the third coast party in Southeastern Texas.

Parlay #1 – Rafael Fisiev + Alonzo Menifield: -111

We will start with Alonzo. This is a fighter who got his start in the UFC far too early and we see it all the time. Super athletes who look like Adonises and hit like a million bucks blow through a bunch of guys on the regional circuit and the UFC calls kinda quick.

They aren’t ready yet.

Alonzo is the perfect example and it usually takes these guys a few fights to get right. Menifield got his start on Dana White’s Contender Series with a big TKO win but he didn’t get the contract.

They called him back again, though, and after another KO win, he was awarded a contract with the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

In his first official fight for the promotion, Alonzo Menifield fought one of the worst UFC fighters of all time, Vinicius Moreira. He is a great grappler but a big lumbering one dimensional grappler who had no business fighting inside the Octagon other than providing fodder for a guy like Alonzo.

Vinny lost all four of his UFC bouts within the first 6 minutes of the opening bell and was, of course, cut from the company after that. I can’t believe they gave him that long but I get it. If they want to build up the name of another fighter and do it safely, he was their guy.

Next up for Alonzo was Paul Craig, a game Scot who has since surpassed Alonzo in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Division even though Zo put him out in the first round. Following the fight with Paul Craig, people were starting to take notice of the Texas trained Zo and he was a big favorite heading into his next bout opposite Devin Clark.

Zo looked good in that fight until he didn’t and he didn’t have the size and athleticism advantage that he had in his previous UFC contests. Clark could match him there and showed that he was a more well rounded fighter and essentially exposed the Fortis MMA product for a unanimous decision win. Following that contest, they gave Zo a difficult matchup against a wily veteran in Ovince S Preux. The former Tennessee Volunteer footballer caught him with a check hook and got him out of there late in the second round.

Next “up” was a step down in competition for Menifield against Fabio Cherant. Zo got his down quick and Fabio fought like a goose just hit him in the face and practically gifted Menifield a Von Flue choke.

Please Note:
If you are unfamiliar with the technique, it is when your opponent holds onto a guillotine for too long after you have passed their guard to the opposite side of the choke. You have to let go at that point or else your opponent can simply sink their shoulder into your throat and you go out.

It comes on quick too! I will never forget the first time it happened to me as a white belt. Well, the truth is that all I remembered was waking up thinking: Where am I and what the heck just happened?

Some have actually lobbied for the name of the choke to be changed to the Von Preux choke which also pays homage to someone who has several finishes that way inside the Octagon, the aforementioned Ovince St Preux.

I can dig that because you have the names of both guys in there. It was kind of ironic in a way if that’s the word because Zo had just fought Ovince. That brings us to the present time and I will spare you guys the UFC career recap for Ed Herman because we will be here all day.

Ed is a very tough veteran who will be fighting for his watermark with a current record fighting inside of the Octagon of 13-12. Short Fuse, the natural redhead, go figure, is skilled, tough, and talented but at the age of almost 41, lacks the speed and reaction time to compete with a lot of these younger guys.

Menifield isn’t 25 years old but he has the speed and power to surprise and put away anyone in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Division. He will be fighting in his home state and let’s hope for our sake and his that he doesn’t let the nerves get to him.

Menifield has yet to win a decision in his UFC career.

Looking back a bit at Herman’s run, he was an original Team QUEST guy out of the Pacific Northwest. Matt Lindland, Chael Sonnen, and Randy Couture coached by the legendary and late Robert Follis were the OG’s.

Herman still trains in the PNW but now at an American Top Team affiliate where he also puts in time as a coach. Here is an old pic of Ed and Robert that brings a tear to my eye. Follis was a legend and always will be.

This sport is evolving so rapidly and there is just one exciting event after another from week to week that it is easy to forget about the men and women who paved these roads. RIP Robert Follis.

Ed is 40 years old and on a 3 fight win streak but his previous win over Slo Mike Rodriguez is one that he did cheat a bit. Herman was finished but complained that it was a low blow when the replay showed it wasn’t.

I am not mad at that at all. He is a vet and it is only cheating if you get caught. Don’t tell your kids that but if they grow up and break the rules from time to time, don’t hate them for it.

Before that “win”, he defeated Khadis Ibragimov, the Russian version of the previously mentioned Vinicius Moreira who is also no longer with the company. Thank goodness.

Prior to that:
He put away Pat Cummins with a knee and Pat never had a good run with the company either. Before that fight, Ed lost 3 straight so it isn’t like he is on this amazing run. I do respect the guy a lot, though, and unless you put him to sleep, he is going to fight for your money for sure.

The guy is game. I just don’t think he will be game enough to beat Menefield. Well, he will be game enough but I guess what I am trying to say is that his gameness probably won’t matter because reaction time and chin degradation.

Herman is very solid in the clinch, though, and Zo will have to keep the front foot or else we could see Ed steal some time up against the side of the Octagon and make this a close fight in the process.

Moving on to Rafael Fisiev, he is one of the most promising prospects in the UFC’s Lightweight Division right now. This guy has Russian wrestling, rock hard hips to use for his takedown defense, and Thailand Muay Thai.

Tiger is closed right now and the entire island of Phuket as well. That Sandbox project that Thailand was using to bring tourists in didn’t last very long. I lived there for a year and I respect the Thais a lot so I won’t insult them but all of Southeast Asia is a year behind the rest of the world in this Covid thing.

I gotta say I saw it coming but that’s what we do best y’all, predicto el futuro!

Rafael Fisiev is a nightmare of a matchup for most of the division and especially against a sloppy boxing stylist like Bobby Green. Green is a game guy who makes a lot of fights close with his style but the shoulder roll and slipping punches will only get you kicked by a Thai fighter who knows what the heck he is doing.

Go ahead, slip outside of my right straight. I want you to. Why? Well, I can just throw a same side head kick right behind it and clack!

Shoulder roll my straight right like Bobby loves to do and cool story bro. It is impossible to move your head and move your lower body at the same time unless you are simply evading but then you don’t put yourself in a position to counter.

Bobby likes to think he is Floyd Mayweather and I get it. I would shoulder roll too and I remember Master Nop, pronounced “Nope” giving me the stink eye right before my sparring partner or opponent caught on and kicked my lead leg.

Fisiev didn’t just train at Tiger Muay Thai alongside world champions like Petr Yan and Valentina Shevchenko. He TAUGHT there. A farang teaching Muay Thai is one of the highest honors you can get from the Thais and it goes to show you how good this guy really is.

Fisiev is likely going to put away Bobby King Green in this matchup. He is 7 years younger than Bobby who will be 35 next month, and is just on another level in the Art of 8 Limbs.

Parlay Bet #1
Fisiev and Menifield
-111
Place Bet Now!

Parlay #2 – Rafael Fisiev + Alonzo Menifield + Miles Johns: +183

We are getting nearly a dollar more on our payout by adding in Miles Johns who I already love and will bet straight at (-200).

The T-Rex armed Johns is on another level athletically than his opponent at UFC 265, Anderson dos Santos, and if he fights intelligently, should have his hand raised about 7 out of 10 times if not more against the aging brawler.

Miles knocked out another brawler in his last fight, Kevin Natividad, who isn’t the best guy in the UFC but who said Anderson was either?

He was doubled up in significant strikes landed in his first two bouts inside of the Octagon and he got his first UFC win in his most previous fight against the one dimensional Martin Day who he subbed with a guillotine.

Miles is everything but one dimensional and his miniscule reach of 66 inches shouldn’t be a problem against a guy who is always pressing forward and killing practically his only attribute advantage in the fight by doing so.

Parlay Bet #2
Fisiev + Johns + Menifield
+183
Place Bet Now!

In Conclusion

Saturday night is going to be a fun one down in H-Town. Shout out to DJ Screw who changed the game once upon a time as well as Pimp C who have both since passed. The lean is a heck of a drug and not to be messed with but it certainly was a tool to give us a sound we have never heard before.

I like our invite list a lot especially Rafy Fisiev.

I would bet Rafy Fisiev to win by finish even though Bobby Green has only been put away once in his career and that was by the #1 contender for the belt right now, Dustin The Diamond Poirier.

  • You can get either the decision prop on Fiz or an inside the distance method of victory play both for plus money which is solid for a fighter who is close to 3 to 1 to get the win.
  • Miles Johns, as long as he remains calm under fire, should have his fight the bag and I think Alonzo Menifield will come out hard and get aging Ed out of there as well.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/ufc-265-parlay-party-08-07-2021/

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