UFC 262 Main Card Betting Preview

UFC 262 is this Saturday night from H-Town Houston, Texas, and will be the second event in front of a live crowd, in person! Yes, the sporting world is somewhat returning to normalcy but I barely notice because there are 10-15 fights every week!

When you’re focused so much on that, you sometimes forget what’s going on in the world and whether or not there will be a crowd. I was actually enjoying hearing the strikes land without a crowd but we all sure heard Chris Weidman’s leg break at UFC 261.

I had just stepped out on my balcony to grab my drink and CRACK! The fight had just started and it was over in an instant.

Can’t keep a champion down.

Wishing @ChrisWeidman a speedy recovery 🙏 pic.twitter.com/QuUdDQFVh2

— UFC (@ufc) April 25, 2021

UFC 261 did not disappoint, though, at all! What an incredible show it was and it being in front of a crowd, made it even better. Can UFC 262 put forth a similar effort and result? It is going to hard to match that but I still think we can have a successful night especially at the betting window.

We were 8-1 with over a 9 unit return and 102% ROI at UFC 261. Last week didn’t go as well but we didn’t dig a giant hole either. We lost with Cowboy, Nchukwi, and Ludo Klein but won with Gregor Gillespie, Marina Rodriguez, and Phil Hawes.

Ludovit Klein arguably won but I think the judges got it right. It is hard to score a fight for a guy who is moving backward the whole time.

I know he got some takedowns at the end of 1 and 2 but top control was non existent and there wasn’t even any ground and pound except from Trizano on the bottom. They got that one right and the (-250) was certainly a silly line in retrospect.

Cowboy never looked worse, in my opinion.

Delivering on short notice! 😱@AlexMoronoMMA stops Cowboy in RD 1! #UFCVegas26 pic.twitter.com/8ahCkOJsAM

— UFC (@ufc) May 9, 2021

Then Tafon Nchukwi is a major work in progress. I put this guy up on a pedestal and paid for it. The South Korean, Park, fought a good fight, but I will still look to fade him in his next one because I still don’t think he is that good.

Nchukwi stunk it up. I’m sorry. I vastly overrated his skills and became far too certain that he was going to win.

Saved by the bell 🔔

Park almost secured the guillotine! #UFCVegas26 pic.twitter.com/tsedr8Gcv3

— UFC (@ufc) May 8, 2021

I had friends come to me and say, hey Mike-I really like Jun Yong Park this weekend. He is the better overall fighter and the underdog!

Of course, I immediately told them no. Well, I absolutely hate doing something like that, and it is obviously still making my blood boil, so I will move on, but the certainty is what bothers me, and I want to catch myself the next time I am SO SURE about a (-140) favorite.

The best thing about betting MMA or just betting, in general, is that it isn’t that hard to move on. There are more fights and opportunities to make money every week at the UFC betting sites. Speaking of, let’s get to that!

Shane Burgos (-115) vs Edson Barboza (-105)

Whew…this is a fun one! Wow, pressure boxing vs the kicking game of Edson Barboza. Both men are some of the very best of all time in their divisions at what they do.

Shane Burgos has exceptional size for the weight class, great boxing, super cardio, a granite chin, and a front foot forward pressure style that will give 90% of the division fits.

I don’t know. He is a former 155er, so I don’t think he will be at a size disadvantage like a lot of Shane’s opponents. We actually have identical reaches and heights for both fighters.

It isn’t often we see that. Both men are now fathers as well. Shane and his family just had  a baby a couple of weeks ago, so we can assume he isn’t getting the best sleep, but the primal boost he gets from feeding another mouth as he says here is something that should more than make up for a little bit of lost sleep.

This fight is very, very tough to call. I like Burgos a little bit more. He throws and lands with so much volume. Also, the best way to beat a kicker is to crowd them. Pressure them backwards.

Mike Trizano did this perfectly against Ludovit Klein on Saturday night to get the win as the biggest underdog on the card.

His style matches up better against Edson than vice versa, and he is also the younger fighter with far less mileage at 30 years old. Barboza lost to both Justin Gaethje and Dan Ige, who are pressure punchers, and they don’t even have the 75 inches of reach Barboza does.

We already noted that Burgos can match him there, so we will lean Shane right now.

Katlyn Chookagian (-132) vs Viviane Araujo (+112)

I would line this one a little differently, with Viv being the betting favorite. Katlyn Chookagian, though, is a fighter who can make good fighters look a lot like crap due to her voluminous and long style of striking.

.@blondefighter or @ViviAraujoMMA ? https://t.co/AgdtZEMugz #ufc262 #ufc #mma #ufchouston pic.twitter.com/vAhON7wXGs

— MMACrossfireNation (@NationCrossfire) April 1, 2021

I think she is the one who looks kinda dumb because most of her punches aren’t thrown at her opponent but simply at the air, and don’t even get me started on the grunting noises or tennis sounds, if you will, that she makes.

There is a reason you do the talk test when you’re running.

Katlyn doesn’t seem to really slow down in fights, so she can handle it, and if the judges are gullible, they will believe that the grunt is equal to the power of the punch.

You see, looping punches have more range than straight ones, and as Katlyn is jabbing down at her opponent, she can leave a gap between her shoulder and her chin. That is where the overhand right counter comes into play.

Vivi did lose to Jessica Eye, which has me worried here, but I think as the betting underdog, you have to side with her against Chookagian. Katlyn could get taken down also. Vivi will already be down there close to her hips.

I think Araujo can win this one standing up as well. She should probably be the favorite here. People are seeing the height differential and basing their betting line or pick off of that.

I say that because Araujo has a 90+% takedown defense, and it isn’t likely that the taller woman can get down and secure underhooks, much less go for a double or single leg against Araujo.

Jack Hermansson (-151) vs Edmen Shahbazyan (+131)

This is a difficult pick, and I will be honest with you guys right now. Full disclosure-I don’t know. I think Jack Hermansson can probably take this fight to the mat and dominate Edmen from there.

Jack is shaky on the feet, though, and doesn’t really prefer to get hit or even like it. What a jerk, right? I will lean with the Joker for now, but this fight isn’t getting a ton of attention from me right now from a betting perspective.

Beneil Dariush (-161) vs Tony Ferguson (+141)

So, a while back, right after this fight was announced, the betting odds came out, and I wrote an article saying to continue the fade on Ferguson, but since then, we have seen El Cucuy shift his mindset a little bit and work more on the technical side of his game.

He has solid power, and he isn’t afraid to just let his body do anything in there. Sometimes, though, your flow is going to run into a dam, a very well built dam that relies on technique.

Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira are both top 5 UFC Lightweights, and Tony showed us that he isn’t quite there.

He was top ten.

His opponent at UFC 262, Beneil Dariush, isn’t a top 5 guy either, though. I put him and Tony pretty close to each other. They kind of have similar styles as well. They are both grappling based fighters with good wrestling and above average submissions.

They each don’t mind putting themselves in the line of fire to score an ultra powerful blow, and they both have knockouts from throwing spinning stuff.

I know that a couple of months with Freddie Roach isn’t going to all of a sudden make Tony Ferguson this technical machine, but it will help, and it definitely has me pausing. We will see how fight week plays out and make a call on this matchup in a few days.

Charles Oliveira (-130) vs Michael Chandler (+110)

Wow, the Lightweight title is up for grabs, and Dustin Poirier, Conor McGregor, or Justin Gaethje will be fighting for it.

This is a bit of a shock, but Dustin chose red panties over a gold belt, and I can’t say I blame the man.

Besides, it was a pretty easy night for DP last time against Conor so why not kick the leprechaun in the leg again and call it a day. I will stop there because we have a difficult enough choice to make here with the main event of 262.

Charles Oliveira is, of course, going to have a height and reach advantage over the vertically challenged Michael Chandler.

You have enough of an athleticism advantage on most of your opponents that height barely plays a factor.

Oli holds 2 inches of height and 3 in the reach department over Michael. I don’t think the American will use his wrestling here against the UFC’s all time leader in submission wins, Charles Oliveira.

And I don’t think Charles has the sauce to take down Chandler, so we are likely looking at a kickboxing match. The sportsbooks favor the more technical striker, the longer striker, but Chandler has the power edge for sure, as well as the speed.

Michael is a force. I’m telling you.

He is going to press forward, and it will be up to Charles Oliveira to either hold his ground or not, and I don’t think he will. One thing to note here as well is that Charles is kinda like Conor McGregor in that he either wins big, or when he loses, he fades and fades FAST.

The exception to this was Conor’s fight against Nate Diaz, where he got his second win for probably the one and only time ever and used the leg kicks to slow the pace of his opponent. That was a masterful performance from McGregor.

I can’t make a pick just yet on this fight, but I am ever so slightly leaning towards Michael Chandler because I think he will be the fighter on the front foot, and Charles has been a flake in the past.

His skills improved, but when it comes to heart, you either have it, or you don’t.

In Conclusion

I love some of our betting spots already, and others are beginning to clear up even this early in the week on Monday.

Muniz, Grundy, and Shevchenko all look pretty good on the undercard, and on the main card, there isn’t a scarcity of value either.

I’m not sure why she is the underdog other than the fact that Katlyn fights very smart and knows how to win over the judges with well-timed grunts and air punches. Don’t ask me how. Judges are not the sharpest knives in the sink.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!