Beneil Dariush Best Sports Picks Charles Oliveira Michael Chandler UFC 262 UFC Betting UFC betting picks

UFC 262 Fighter Focus X3: Charles Oliveira, Michael Chandler, and Beneil Dariush

May 13, 2021
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UFC 262 is this Saturday night from the great city of Houston, Texas in front of a live crowd for the second time in a month after we waited a year!

It will be mighty difficult for UFC 262 to live up to UFC 261 but with the lineup they have right now, I’m not throwing out the possibility.

This just in, though.
Bad news for fight fans but probably better for us bettors: The Edmen Shahbazyan vs Jack Hermansson fight has been rescheduled for a few weeks later. Actually, from a betting perspective, I don’t think it really matters.

It gives us more time and attention because this week is loaded with big names and potentially big value as well but what can we really do to cap that fight properly. I think it is highly difficult. We don’t know where Edmen is at after his loss to Derek Brunson.

That was pretty ugly and the kid gets arguably a step up in competition after a loss like that? That was very surprising. We don’t know what was said by who behind closed doors, though, so the speculation is pointless.

Maybe Coach Edmond demanded a title shot. The guy is a little bit out there. I still can’t believe he was with Ronda Rousey for her run. That really goes to show that she is a special athlete. Imagine if Ronda would have been under the wing of someone who actually knew what they were talking about and didn’t make her sparring partners sign a co-contact agreement.

Yes, you read that correctly. Multiple former sparring partners are all in agreement here. You can’t say it worked until it didn’t.

They got away with it until they were exposed.

The first time Ronda got hit hard and clean inside the Octagon looked like the first time she had ever been hit hard and clean. We all go through it and I am very familiar with what it looks like. Such a shame but at the same time, she was the driving force that brought women’s MMA to the UFC.

So, no Edmen or Edmond this week. That’s okay, though. We have a title fight in the UFC’s most popular division this weekend at UFC 262.

Charles Do Bronx Oliveira who I am going to start calling “Due Bronx” because he is certainly due for a title shot.

8 consecutive victories and if it wasn’t for Tony Ferguson allowing his elbow to nearly explode out of his skin on a last second armbar attempt at the end of the round, well, Charles would also have an 8 fight finish streak.

There is a lot of talent in the UFC’s Lightweight Division so this feat is pretty freaking special and it goes to show how much he has grown since his earlier years with the promotion.

In the co-main event, another long-time staple at 155 pounds in the UFC, Beneil Dariush, gets the biggest fight of his career when he fights the recently mentioned Ferguson in what could be an absolute WAR!

When the lines were released, I picked Benny earlier and was heavy on fading Ferguson after his loss to Justin Gaethje and then Charlie Olives. I see that Tony is training with Freddie Roach now but it may be the grappling that fails him here.

Plenty more on that fight to come.

Lastly, the other half of the main event, Michael Chandler, is a name that a lot of UFC fans that maybe don’t watch Bellator have never heard of. He is a very special athlete. I will tell you that. He is a D-1 wrestler who will probably be able to do backflips in his 50s. I’m not kidding.

Just as I say that and slide over to his Instagram to find you guys a cool clip, I see this post from just 2 days ago.

What a freak. I will be clear that I am a much bigger fan of Charles Oliveira but I can’t help but lean slightly in the direction of the betting underdog. I am not sure, though, yet which way I want to play it.

Beneil Dariush

Beneil or Benny Dariush as Kenny Florian always refers to him, is one of the most well-rounded guys in a stacked UFC Lightweight Division. At this point in his career, he definitely seems like he has leveled up and is the best version of himself we will probably ever see.

I finished my thought there because he just turned 32. I think you can maintain your level from 32 until you’re about 35 or so at this weight class but then it is, of course, downhill from there.

After dropping three fights in a row, and two of them being knockouts, Benny has reeled off 5 straight.

His wrestling is so underrated. People are sleeping hard on that wrestling. He takes people down and has such a high level game of BJJ that he stays out of submissions.

I think that is a path to victory here for him against Tony Ferguson. If he wants to stand with Ferguson and test the chin that a lot of us have said will never be the same, then he might get knocked out himself.

I say this because Tony can and will throw anything at any time.

Couple that with the way Beneil likes to fight with his hands down and well you know what’s next. Kobe Bryant taught us that.

Hand down, man down. This is a 3 round fight which favors Dariush heavily. I like him here. I feel like Ferguson is focusing on his boxing but it might be a little too late. Dariush is younger and he didn’t just get completely dominated in his last two fights.

I like him here at (-170). Whew, that line has gone up since we tipped him back on March 15th.

Benny was (+100) there so I feel good that some of us were able to get out ahead of such a big line movement in a big fight. (-170) isn’t (+100), though, and we have to deal with the present. For us to confidently make a play on Benny Dariush, we need to be able to confidently say he is going to win 75% of the time and that is difficult.

You can get Benny by decision for plus money and Tony wasn’t finished by one of the most potent finishers of all time in his last fight against Charles Oliveira. The fight before that, it took Justin Gaethje more than 3 rounds to get him out of there.

Tony is an action fighter but look at his history.

He hasn’t been finished very much. I think this fight is won with Benny’s wrestling and his submission defense. Tony is a physically strong guy with big hands who will tie up Benny who seems to not be that physically strong. I say this because he has the high-level BJJ but people still stand up not long after he takes them down.

Please Note:
Tony Ferguson has the path where he could wear Benny down by continually getting up but I don’t see it happening in just three rounds. That hurts Tony here big time but it is what it is and we have to call it as we see it and any other overused phrase you may prefer.

BetOnline.AG has Benny by decision at (+140). I like that. It may be a sweat but it is plus money and they aren’t supposed to be easy wins.
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Charles Oliveria

Charlie Olives as Dan Hooker refers to him is one of if not the most exciting fighter in the UFC. I know there may be some popularity that clouds people’s judgments here but pure excitement…

Charles might have it. When he wins, it is a finish. When he loses, it is a finish as well. That is one of his biggest faults, though, is that sometimes in bottom position, he has the tendency to accept it and play BJJ.

This, of course, is partly what led him to tapping out more fighters than anyone in UFC history.

He has also been tapped out, though. Jim Miller, Anthony Pettis, Ricardo Lamas…These guys are all solid fighters and long time veterans of the game to this day but they aren’t on his level on the ground.

Without risk, though, there is no reward and that is why Charles could be the most exciting fighter in the UFC today. Francis Ngannou is pretty special but Charles has grown up inside the Octagon.

That brings me to my next point and it is a rather dark one. Charles Oliveira is a front runner.

He is a Conor McGregor. I love them both! When Conor fades, though, he fades in an instant.

The Mayweather fight was over just seconds after he was tired. These two may have the best physical skills in the division now that Khabib’s wrestling is gone but they don’t have the heart. I absolutely despise being the person who sits behind my keyboard and calls UFC fighters quitters.

HEADING TEXT HERE
In the fight game, that is the biggest insult ever. Heart is everything. When I first moved to Las Vegas and started training with professionals at a large gym where MMA practice was 50+ people and 90% pros, I thought the technical side would be emphasized way more than it was. People were sharp, don’t get me wrong but heart was is and always will be #1. The same goes for Thailand x10.

The Thais would certainly approve of Conor’s cash but I don’t know how much they would like him if they watched all of his fights. Oliveira isn’t much different. He hasn’t been fighting Khabib and Poirier.

The win over Kevin Lee was solid especially considering the size of the American, and the Tony win was nice but that was against a “never will be the same again” Tony Ferguson coming off of his loss to Justin Gaethje.

It is hard enough to get your brain right after a beating like that but also get your brain right if you know what I mean. He has to give his brain time to heal but simultaneously build his confidence.

Tony knows as well as anybody that preparation builds and breeds confidence. He is one of the hardest workers in the game and has been for over a decade. So, how do you think he felt knowing he needed to bring up his technical skills quite a bit to be able to hang with the top 5? He probably felt like he wanted to go out there and train his butt off in striking for several hours a day but you can’t do that. Your brain is taking little tiny rattles every time you throw a punch and hit a pad or bag. That made it tough for him to be worth a darn against Oliveira 7 months later. After his time off, it was almost time to start camp and camp isn’t about learning. It is about taking what you have to the highest level and peaking your conditioning and weight for the fight.

Both men can certainly win this UFC Lightweight Title fight. Right now, Michael Chandler is the slight underdog so you could say the value lies with him but that doesn’t really get us any closer to picking a winner.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Michael Chandler

He isn’t quite as eclectic as El Cucuy but Michael has some physical gifts that 99% of humans born on earth just don’t receive. Throw in a lifetime of competitive wrestling and mixed martial arts training and you have a FREAK!

As a tall guy like Charles Oliveira, you have a tough time with the short stocky super explosive guys just like Michael Chandler. I know this because I am built quite similarly to Oliveira. They get inside of your range and all of a sudden, your length works against you.

Please Note:
It takes longer for a longer arm to extend than it does a shorter one. That’s how Mike Tyson was able to be so successful for so long. Eventually, he ran into men that were just THAT much bigger than him and he faltered. Lennox Lewis and Evander Holyfield are both two of the greatest heavyweights of all time, though.

Chandler looked great in his UFC debut but it was so short. I wish we could have got to see more from him but you kinda know what you’re getting.

I think both of them know how important this fight is and if Conor McGregor beats Dustin Poirier, their next fight could be for some LIFE CHANGING money.

Because of this, I think they will both come out firing the calf kick and try to steal this one early, if you will.

Here is the difference for me.
I believe Michael Chandler has the stronger will. This fight is the biggest of both men’s careers with the most pressure. That puts the fighter with the stronger mind ahead already. Now, let’s fight for 15 minutes and see where we are at. The judges’ scorecards? No. This is a title fight and Charlie is going to have to dig deep. Physically his skills are incredible but I think Michael has him matched there.

It might be with different skill sets but both men are at an incredible level. Chandler is more explosive so he may physically tire faster than Charles but if Michael can be the hammer for 10+ minutes, I think we may see Oliveira look for a way out.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

In Conclusion

All three of these fighters are outstanding mixed martial artists and all at the peaks of their skills, careers, physical attributes, you name it. Each of the three will be fighting in the biggest fights of their careers.

I love the value we had back on the Ides of March with the even money (+100) play on Benny Dariush here. Instead, we are going to have to hope he can take this one to a decision for (+140) because I can’t get behind his moneyline where it is now.

I’m happy that it moved and I’m not.

You can say it is egotistical if you want but we are in the business of being right and I told you guys to jump on it and it has moved north 70% since. Even if Benny loses the fight, you will benefit long term from getting out ahead of the significant line movement.

Please Note:
For those of you that didn’t, now you have to say he wins 75% of the time to make even a 1 unit play or you are risking an extra 70% of your wager to just profit 1 unit. Before, he was at 50% so you only needed to say you had him at 55%. That is a long way from 75 so now we have to look at an even riskier method of victory bet but I still like it at (+140). Benny is a finisher but on the mat, I think Tony is a sound enough grappler to survive. He did against Oliveira.

As for the main event, I have to go with the mentally stronger fighter. I have already said enough about this fight but that is the difference for me.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/ufc-262-fighter-focus-x3-charles-oliveira-michael-chandler-and-beneil-dariush/

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