Aalon Cruz Aljamain Sterling Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan Amanda Lemos Amanda Lemos vs Livinha Souza Amanda Nunes Amanda Nunes vs Megan Anderson Askar Askarov Askar Askarov vs Joseph Benavidez Best Sports Picks Carlos Ulberg Carlos Ulberg vs Kennedy Nzechukwu Israel Adesanya Israel Adesanya vs Jan Blachowicz Jake Matthews Jan Blachowicz Jordan Espinosa Joseph Benavidez Kai Kara France Kai Kara France vs Rogerio Bontorin Kennedy Nzechukwu Kyler Phillips Livinha Souza Mario Bautista Mario Bautista vs Trevin Jones Megan Anderson petr yan Rogerio Bontorin Sean Brady Sean Brady vs Jake Matthews Song Yadong Song Yadong vs Kyler Phillips Tim Elliott Tim Elliott vs Jordan Espinosa Trevin Jones Uros Medic Uros Medic vs Aalon Cruz

UFC 259 Best Bets to Make

March 9, 2021
financialfreedomllc20

Even though company darling Israel Adesanya wasn’t able to get the win and double champ crown in the main event of UFC 259 on Saturday night, the event was still an overwhelming success.

I haven’t seen the pay per view numbers yet but I know a great deal of casual fans were tuning in as well to UFC 259. There were 3 world title fights on the main card and several featured fighters including Islam Makhachev who looked absolutely tremendous in his third round submission win over the dangerous Drew Dober.

Amanda Nunes took care of business quickly as she finally got the chance to throw and land her patented overhand right against a taller opponent. I know that felt good and after a couple cracks, she got Megan down and into a triangle/armbar combo that ended the fight.

Petr Yan showed us why he is the champion at 135 pounds but also why his nickname is “No Mercy” when he illegally and blatantly kneed his grounded opponent to the face and suffered a disqualification because of it.

It is truly unfortunate how it played out for both fighters but Aljo got double the payday and now the world title. I’m sure he isn’t walking around like he won it. You could see the look on his face as Dana strapped it around his waist.

Also, Dominick Cruz got his first win inside of the Octagon since he defeated Urijah Faber back in 2016. That is pretty remarkable especially considering the multitude of knee injuries Cruz has had to deal with over the past decade.

Joe Benavidez showed us why it is finally time for him to hang it up but losing to an undefeated Askar Askarov is still nothing to be ashamed about.

Other notable prospects getting their hands raised this past Saturday night at UFC 259 were Alexander Rakic, Uros Medic, Amanda Lemos, Kyler Philips, and Sean Brady. All five of these fighters are likely on their way to the top ten of their respective divisions and possibly higher.

There were 15 fights on the docket and somehow they all went off without cancellation. BetOnline.AG provided the betting odds for us.

What I want to do today is not cover only the bets we made and how they could have been better. We won 8 of 10 bets and only lost on the Israel Adesanya fight so it was a great night.

What I want to tackle today are the best bets we could have made for every fight and why. It may seem redundant but this is truly how we learn. The sportsbooks want us to quickly forget any mistakes or sharp moves we may have made for UFC 259.

Please Note:
If you don’t learn from both your mistakes and successes, you are still the same bettor you were before the event. We have to continue to grow and going back and defining the best bet to make with hindsight but also within reason is a great way to learn before we move on.

Let’s look at each of the 15 fights from UFC 259 and pinpoint the perfect prediction we could have possibly made.

Mario Bautista (-245) vs Trevin Jones (+205)

This was a good spot to take a shot on the dog. Trevin Jones showed us in his fight against Timur Valiev that he is a capable and live underdog. Valiev is on another level than both of these two so Jones was really getting disrespected here.

Both fighters came out cracking and landing at higher percentages north of 50. This played into the hands of the underdog, though, and Jones eventually caught Bautista less than a minute into the second round.

Maybe next time, they will put some respect on his name. Trevin is working with a friend of mine at the UFC Performance Institute, Matt Jelly. He doesn’t look the part but is one of the best pad holders in MMA.

I have seen the striking games of some of his students make strides from fight to fight. Women’s Strawweight World Champion Weili Zhang is one of them. Matt has spent a lot of time in Thailand and working with fighters on the regional scene in his native Canada.

Keep up with your favorite fighters’ Instagram pages because you can learn quite a bit. I’m not just talking about where they are working out and with who but also get a glimpse into their personality.

Did they just fight for a world title and lose soundly? Where is their head at considering this loss? Maybe the belt is what they had in their head for so long that drove them and now that the belt isn’t really a possibility, what’s next?

This can be hard on the psyche of fighters and we will be stepping our game up and zeroing in on the personalities of the MMA fighters we are betting on.

The best bet here was Trevin Jones on the moneyline. Sure, a TKO prop would certainly pay us more but greed is an emotion that turns into action. This must be avoided at all costs. It is natural for us to think that way and the books know this.

Just like any business, they are going to hire a team of psychologists who know exactly how the human brain operates and they will design their products and pricing accordingly.

We aren’t just playing a game of who wins and who doesn’t. There are percentages we have to pay attention to as well as something we can’t exactly quantify like a fighter’s personality.

If you listened to Trevin Jones or even Jan Blachowicz during the weeks leading up to UFC 259, you can not only hear but also see and practically smell the cloud of confidence rolling out of their pores.

Jones had solid value at (+205) and that was your play.

Best Bet to Make: Jones (+205)

Uros Medic (-205) vs Aalon Cruz (+175)

Speaking of psychology, I want to note something here. Do you see how Uros is at (-205) and Cruz is (+175)? Well, this fight was lined this way because the sportsbooks wanted you to bet on the underdog here.

They knew Uros was a pretty dangerous guy who, if he performed in his UFC debut as well as he did in his Contender Series fight then he was likely going to get his hand raised.

Normally, if you have the favorite at say (-205) or (-200), then the comeback on the underdog will be around (+155) or so. Not here and this should have told us something. I was too hyper-focused on the main card fights that this one slipped by.

We still had a great night betting but it surely could have been better with a play/parlay on Urod Medic. He looked like he was on another level or even two than his opponent at UFC 259.


So, what was our best bet to make?

Was it simply the moneyline on Uros Medic? Or possibly, a play on the Alaskan to win inside the distance was our best spot. Remember, we have to have hindsight but also pick a bet that would have been within reason.

Aalon Cruz came into this fight with Uros Medic at UFC 259 with 3 losses all by way of stoppage including his last fight against Spike Carlyle. Taking into account the power, size, finishing ability along with killer instinct, Uros by stoppage was the play to make.

Best Bet to Make: Uros Medic wins inside the distance (-110)

Amanda Lemos (-242) vs Livinha Souza (+207)

Again guys, look at this betting line. They are inviting you to bet on the underdog that they were quickly losing confidence in. We put out a doorbuster special article specifically for this fight when Amanda’s betting odds were an incredibly affordable (-150).

We said that they would likely reach (-240) by fight time and there you go. The (-150) was certainly a solid play but the way the fight played out, it looked like Amanda was going to get the finish more times than not.

Lemos to win inside the distance closed at (+333). I say if you got in on the (-150) then that was the best play but once she was (-242), a shot on the finish betting line at 4 to 1 was a no brainer.

She was fishing for subs as well as beating Livinha up so it would not have been smart to play either the sub or TKO method of victory prop. Inside the distance was still better than 3 to 1, though.

Best Bet to Make: Lemos to win inside the distance

Sean Brady (-200) vs Jake Matthews (+170)

Again, same thing here, guys. Look at the betting line. If the online sportsbooks thought Jake Matthews had a decent chance here than they would have had him closer to (+150).

I admit that this one started off kinda hairy for Brady who was having some trouble in the striking department before he decided to take the fight to the mat and eventually get the 3rd round submission over a veteran in Jake Matthews.

Predicting a stoppage against a durable guy like Matthews would have been too much of a stretch. Plus, it took him until the 3rd round to get the sub, and historically, you don’t see many 3rd round tapouts at all.

Sean Brady still had plenty of value on the moneyline of (-200), though, and he would have been the perfect parlay piece to go along with someone like Islam Makhachev. Both fighters’ paths to victory involved them cruising in top control and that’s precisely how both scraps played out.

Pick: Brady Moneyline (-200)

Carlos Ulberg (-215) vs Kennedy Nzechukwu (+185)

This was a great fight while it lasted. Both men were landing at will but Ulberg was the more polished striker landing the cleaner shots and winning the fight. That is until he wasn’t.

The cardio of Kennedy Nzechukwu is something special. He doesn’t throw with a lot of power but he just kept coming and eventually, Ulberg got cocky against the fence with his hands down and chin up.

I texted my Laker fan friends with the hashtag #handdownmandown. RIP Kobe Bryant.

The play here was obviously Kennedy on the moneyline at nearly 2 to 1. Don’t chase method of victory props on underdogs! You already have plus money. That needs to be enough for you. I don’t know your particular style but I have known some amazing cappers who put 2-3 dogs in a parlay.

“Oh, man, I lost my bet by one fight!”

Of course, you did. The books will take advantage of your greed eventually. We aren’t in the business of emotions if you didn’t know.

Maybe that’s your thing and you just want action. That’s why you’re reading this and simultaneously getting offended. Well, to borrow from the strong mind of Jocko Willink,

“GOOD”

Get offended! Maybe then, you will learn. Every week, I see my friends’ parlays and they picked 4 out of 5 fights correctly on it and a lot of times, these are closely lined fights so they are getting massive dog odds for a potential payout.

2-fight parlays are risky enough but when you’re putting 4 and 5 fighters in there, it just gets ridiculous. The point being, if you have dog money, take it! And be happy with it, win or lose!

Pick: Nzechukwu (+185)

Tim Elliott (-155) vs Jordan Espinosa (+135)

We have seen Jordan Espinosa look good inside of the Octagon but not against any level of competition higher than the bottom of the division. Tim Elliott is a fighter who has been in there with Askar Askarov and even won a round once upon a time against Demetrius Johnson at The Ultimate Fighter Finale.

Elliott is one of the best takedown artists in the entire UFC but he has trouble keeping guys down and tends to be reckless in his scrambles. This gets him into trouble against capable submission stylists. Espinosa is not that guy, though.

His path to victory was to sprawl and brawl. I thought he had a decent chance if Tim slowed down but Elliott who has left Las Vegas behind, seemed to be in much better physical shape for this fight.

Elliott looked sensational and was well worth a bet at (-155) to defeat Jordan Espinosa.

Pick: Elliott moneyline (-155)

Kai Kara France (-135) vs Rogerio Bontorin (+115)

I heard Nick Kalikas, the head of MMA betting at the new Cerca Sportsbook in Las Vegas, after the fact say that Bontorin was his play of the day.

It looked like a great spot for the highly knowledgeable line setter until Kai Kara France shook his opponent off of his back and cracked him for the TKO win with just 5 seconds remaining in the first round.

We had no way of seeing a knockout coming from France who is primarily a point fighter and he was losing until he wasn’t so it is difficult to say a bet on him as a favorite was our best move.

He wasn’t overly expensive, though, so (-135) wasn’t that bad.

Best Bet to Make: Kai Kara France (-135)

Askar Askarov (-157) vs Joseph Benavidez (+137)

This betting line was a pick’em for a while but the sharp smart money came in and smashed the Dagestani star Askarov all the way up past (-150).

I know some sharps who then took a shot on Joe B but it proved to be a futile move as the aging gatekeeper at 125 pounds wasn’t able to put anything together against the ever improving and still undefeated Askar Askarov.

The over 2.5 was juiced to (-213) and looking back it was pretty risky considering Joe’s concussion issues and the size advantage of Askar. The Russian coast came in the third, though, as the favorite took his foot off the gas and was happy to win a decision.

Askar was a better bet, though, even at (-157). To make a strong play here, we would have to have said that Askar wins at least 66% of the time and after seeing the fight, I think that percentage should be closer to 80.

Best Bet to Make: Askarov Moneyline (-157)

Song Yadong (-225) vs Kyler Phillips (+190)

The sportsbooks simply got this one wrong. Kyler Phillips is a much better all round fighter than Yadong and that showed on Saturday night at UFC 259.

I was concerned about the size of Phillips. I don’t know if it is his babyface or what but he looks small to me and hasn’t been the bigger man in any of his previous UFC bouts.

He was against Song Yadong, though, and that really helped him in the wrestling department.

The Chinese star was mostly left to take shots at his opponent’s chin with his right hand and that was about it. Kyler had more tools in his bag and he used them successfully. He has incredible value at (+190)!

Best Bet to Make: Kyler Phillips (+190)

Casey Kenney (-150) vs Dominick Cruz (+130)

This fight, much like the Askarov/Benavidez matchup, was lined very closely for a while until the late money began to come in on the younger man, Casey Kenney.

Betting the over 2.5 rounds didn’t have much value at (-260) but it did hit. I think the play of the night was Dominick Cruz by decision.

He hardly ever wins by stoppage and it isn’t likely the older man was going to put away Casey Kenney.

The latter is in the prime of his career but he had a very hard time finding Cruz in there and Dom won a fairly comfortable decision by pulling away in the third round.

Best Bet to Make: Cruz by decision (+200)

Alexander Rakic (-188) vs Thiago Santos (+163)

This was a pretty comfortable win for the up and coming star from Vienna, Austria. Alexander Rakic knew he was probably going to have to face an intense first round but Thiago Santos surprisingly held his patented aggression back and played the game of Rakic.

Alexander fought smart. He took what his opponent gave him and that was enough to get the win. A play on his moneyline was the best bet to make here. He controlled the fight and Thiago was never really in it after the first round.

We tipped him at (-160) earlier in the week but his betting odds still held some value where they closed at (-188).

Best Bet to Make: Rakic (-188)

Islam Makhachev (-450) vs Drew Dober (+350)

Islam was money in the bank! I can’t believe his odds stayed around (-320) for as long as they did. I love Drew Dober and you can’t ignore his punching power but when you’re on your back or Islam is on your back, your punching ability means abolutely nothing.

There really wasn’t a lot of good spots here to bet on this fight, though.

Islam didn’t get the submission until late in the fight and most all subs come in the first round. If a fighter doesn’t tap his or her opponent by the end of the first round, the probability of it happening dramatically decreases.

I think simply the best play to make on this fight was to make it your parlay anchor. Even better if you got him where he was for the majority of fight week at (-320).

Best Bet to Make: Islam Makhachev as your parlay anchor

Aljamain Sterling (-120) vs Petr Yan (+100)

I am sure you have heard how this one played out. Aljo looked good in the first round but as Yan’s pace picked up, Aljo started to slow. By the 4th round, Yan was really putting it on him.

He showed that he probably should have been upwards of a 2 to 1 favorite. It will be very interesting to see the betting line for the rematch. I think it opens with Yan at least at (-200). You could have played the over 3.5 rounds for (-130).

We tipped that one but Petr Yan, even though he lost the fight by disqualification, was an exceptional bet at even money. In the end, though, it would not have paid and the over hit so the over 3.5 is our play of the fight.

Best Bet to Make: Over 3.5 rounds (-130)

Amanda Nunes (-1200) vs Megan Anderson (+800)

A finish for the Lioness was going to happen one way or the other whether it came by way of tapout or referee stoppage.

You could get either for plus money but the Nunes inside the distance line was all the way up at (-400)!

I don’t think I have ever seen that line so high for any fighter ever. She is special. She was (+165) to win by submission and just (+100) to win by TKO.

I suppose taking a stab at the submission line was the play to make here.

Best Bet to Make: Nunes by submission (+165)

Israel Adesanya (-250) vs Jan Blachowicz (+210)

I thought Adesanya looked terrible physically. I thought he made multiple tactical errors in that fight. If he would have stuck to the low leg kicks primarily to the calf of Jan, he would have made the fight much much closer.

Izzy has ego, though, evidenced by his previously undefeated record. I don’t know how you don’t think too highly of yourself if you’re undefeated. Extreme undying confidence is already a must in this game so fixing mistakes and shortcomings can prove to be difficult.

The play to make for this fight was obviously the moneyline on Jan Blachowicz who defied the betting odds once again to defend and retain his UFC Light Heavyweight World Title.

Best Bet to Make: Jan Blachowicz (+210)

In Conclusion

Hindsight is 20/20 and sometimes we can use this clarity for our future gain. The present isn’t 20/20 because we can’t see everything at once and the future surely isn’t.

So, to grow in this game, we have to look towards the past. And what better time than right after one of the biggest UFC’s of all time, UFC 259 which featured 3 world title fights and 4 champions in total.

Please Note:
We had 5 underdogs win out of 15 fights, the biggest of those being the Light Heavyweight World Champion, Jan Blachowicz. He didn’t shock everyone because there were still a lot of people out there who couldn’t get their money behind an unproven at 205, Adesanya.Those people were smart and we can learn from that. Israel Adesanya was the only fighter we picked incorrectly.

Well, we were on Sterling as well but gifts are cool with me. I’m sure a win will be snatched from my grasp before too long just like Yan backers had to deal with. I saw some guys put 6 grand on him and that means they lost out on 12,000 dollars.

UFC 259 was a very fun event and an excellent one for betting value. Hopefully, UFC 260 is no different, so get your bets ready!

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/ufc-259-best-bets-to-make/

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