Top Sunday Night Football Prop Picks: Saints vs. Buccaneers

There are plenty of appealing props for the New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday Night Football matchup. Let’s break down the best options in our Sunday Night Football prop picks.

While the spread may be a little out of control with the Buccaneers entering as 11-point favorites, a total of 46 indicates a high-scoring game is likely coming Sunday night. But the Saints will still be able to move the ball, and I’m focusing on one player.

I’ll be fading Alvin Kamara once again with Taysom Hill back under center for New Orleans, and I’m backing the quarterback and what he can do as a runner. And the Buccaneers’ passing attack is also worth your attention.

Here are my top Sunday Night Football prop picks for the Saints-Buccaneers matchup (odds via DraftKings, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

Top Sunday Night Football Prop Picks

Alvin Kamara under 53.5 rushing yards (-115) ★★★★★
Taysom Hill over 44.5 rushing yards (-115) ★★★★★
Mike Evans over 59.5 receiving yards (-115) ★★★★

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Sunday Night Football Prop Picks

Kamara Under 53.5 rushing yards (-115)

The Buccaneers rank third in rushing yards allowed per game, and they’re generally a tough matchup for running backs. That should make life even more difficult for Kamara, who has never really found his stride when Hill is in the backfield.

Kamara averaged just 12.5 carries per game when Hill was the Saints’ starter in 2020. His output was around the four-time Pro Bowler’s career mark of 4.74 yards per carry, with a bad Falcons defense boosting that production. He’s averaging a disappointing 4.25 yards per carry since Hill took over this season.

Those numbers are inflated again because Kamara ran so many times against the Jets with the Saints ahead. His workload should be slashed tonight with New Orleans likely to be trailing, and it’s clear from watching the last two years that Hill steals plenty of Kamara’s carries. Take the Under in our Sunday Night Football prop picks.

Hill Over 44.5 rushing yards (-115)

Hill has rushed 11 times over his last two games since taking the reigns at quarterback while averaging 87 rushing yards per contest. Now he faces a Buccaneers defense that’s allowing the sixth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks and giving up 5.2 yards per carry.

If he runs it at least 11 times again and Tampa’s average holds, that would put Hill at just over 57 yards. That feels like the floor for this prop, as Hill is averaging above seven yards per carry over the last two weeks. He also averaged over 52 rushing yards per game as the starter last year.

Evans Over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)

This one is weird. Chris Godwin does get more targets than his teammate. But should his receiving prop really be almost 20 yards higher than what Evans is getting?

The veteran wideout still ranks in the top 20 in targets after getting 99, and he’s put together two straight games with 90-plus receiving yards. He’s only come up short of this total four times all season.

The Saints’ pass defense is poor (244.5 yards allowed per game), and they’ve given up the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts. It’s easy to fall in love with Evans’ anytime TD prop, but this is the safer bet.

Combined odds: Kamara Under 59.5 rushing yards + Hill Over 44.5 rushing yards + Evans Over 59.5 receiving yards = +525

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Sunday Night Football prop picks made on 12/19/2021 at 9:40 a.m. ET

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