Top Expert Betting Picks for NFL Week 12

Check out our NFL Week 12 expert picks for the best against the spread and Over/Under bets.

It’s a lighter slate on Sunday due to Thanksgiving, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of intriguing games to choose from.

Here’s a look at the top against the spread and Over/Under picks for Week 12 from our team of NFL betting experts (all odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Top NFL Week 12 Expert Picks

SEE ALSO: Top NFL Week 12 Expert Prop Picks

Top NFL Week 12 ATS Picks

Jets +2.5 (-110)

The hot bet of the week is the Houston Texans, a team with two wins and which is starting Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. It seems more and more people are piling on the bandwagon to lay two and a half points with one of the most miserable franchises in the NFL.

I'm just not so sure folks are paying any attention to the New York Jets, which is understandable given the terrible nature of their defense, but which is also detrimental to breaking down the scope of their season. It's easy to say Zach Wilson was bad before his injury, but what that take lacks is any sort of context. Mike LaFleur moved to the coaching booth as soon as he was forced to start Mike White, and with that came a brand new offense that focused heavily on the pass.

Wilson will be stepping into a system that has found its identity under LaFleur and which has pushed towards the top 10 in passing offense. The points will be there, and the question then becomes about this defense. Taylor has not shown very much, and the Texans lack the playmaking to seriously gash this unit like so many good teams have. I think New York is severely undervalued. - Ducey

Packers +2 (-110)

Do the Los Angeles Rams have the more talented roster overall? Probably, especially after recently acquiring Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. However, don’t underestimate how much the season-ending injury to receiver Robert Woods matters. To me, this comes down to Matthew Stafford vs. Aaron Rodgers, and that’s a mismatch. Stafford was 8-67 in his career in Detroit vs. teams with winning records and hasn’t been much better this year.

L.A. had a nice Week 3 win over Tampa Bay, but who else have the Rams beaten? The Colts were struggling back in Week 2. The Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants, Detroit Lions, and Texans all are below .500. In the past two games, the Rams have lost by double digits to the Titans and 49ers. We don’t need to say what a big-game QB Rodgers is. That it will be cold (but no snow) also works against the Rams. Stafford has a history of struggling in cold weather. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its past four, and Green Bay is 9-1 ATS in its past 10. - Jordan

Rams -2 (-110)

I wouldn’t recommend making a habit out of betting against Aaron Rodgers. However, the situation lines up well for the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are itching to brush aside their two consecutive losses and have had a week off to prepare for a hurting Green Bay Packers team. Rodgers is dealing with a fractured toe, starting running back Aaron Jones might miss the game, and stud offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins have been ruled out. Rams defensive stars Aaron Donald and Von Miller will be licking their chops from across the line. 

Rodgers was blitzed a season-high 14 times and pressured 10 times in an upset loss to the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday. The Rams rank second in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate metric and first in run stop win rate. That does not bode well for a Packers O-line that will be starting Yosh Nijman — who has three career starts — at left tackle. - McClymont

Top NFL Week 12 O/U Picks

Buccaneers/Colts Under 53.5 (-110)

I think we're getting a little bit out of hand with this number. The Bills were probably an inflated rushing defense before last week and were subsequently brought back to Earth by Jonathan Taylor. The Buccaneers probably lie on the opposite end of that spectrum as a fantastic rushing defense since the start of 2020 which has been dominant at times this year.

The Colts are a very good team, but they've been led by their secondary and their rushing attack. The latter should struggle against Tampa Bay, and with Carson Wentz under center, I'm not quite sure Indy can score enough to make a dent in this game. Their defense should be effective against an inconsistent Tampa Bay team and keep this game as a rock fight. - Ducey

Jets/Texans Under 44.5 (-110)

Rookie Zach Wilson will return from injury to take over as the starting QB. While Wilson might have a bright future, he has been terrible this season. He is 1-5 as the starter, with four touchdown passes, nine interceptions, and a 27.0 quarterback rating, which ranks 31st out of 33 qualified passers. Houston’s defense has played very well the past two weeks, allowing a combined 30 points against the Dolphins and Titans. That Texans offense isn’t exactly explosive, either, ranking last in the league at 15.0 ppg. - Jordan

Falcons/Jaguars Under 45.5 (-110)

A fairly uninteresting game for most fans has a solid play available to us. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are completely unpredictable week-to-week, and it feels like everyone in Jacksonville is simply waiting out the season for changes to come. In the meantime, they play hard but are not overly smart or well.

Atlanta has suffered two beatdowns after a promising stretch of play. They should win this game but I don't care for the line. The total is a bit aggressive for two offenses that have struggled all year, so I'll take the Under. - Lipka

49ers/Vikings Over 49.5 (-110)

Two 5-5 teams battling to remain in the NFC playoff picture will be playing with desperation when they meet on Sunday. Both the Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers rank in the top 15 in points scored. The Vikings are averaging north of 30 points per game in their past three contests and the 49ers are averaging 27 points per game in their last three. 

The Vikings are also susceptible to giving up a ton of points. They rank in the bottom third in all major defensive categories and 22nd in points allowed per game (24.2). The Over is 6-1 in Minnesota’s last seven road games and 3-2 in the Niners’ five home games this season. - McClymont

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