Top Expert Betting Picks for NFL Week 11

Check out our NFL Week 11 expert picks for the best against the spread and Over/Under bets.

Only the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams are on a bye this week so there’s plenty of matchups to choose from for our top NFL picks of Week 11.

Here’s a look at the top against the spread and Over/Under picks for Week 11 from our team of betting experts (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Circa, and PointsBet):

NFL Week 11 Against the Spread Picks

Matthew Jordan: Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 (-105) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (DraftKings)
Mike McClymont: New York Giants +10.5 (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DraftKings)
Kenny Ducey: Indianapolis Colts +7 (-115) vs. Buffalo Bills (PointsBet)
Denis Lipka: Miami Dolphins -3.5 (-105) vs. New York Jets (DraftKings)

NFL Week 11 Over/Under Picks

Jordan: Dolphins vs. Jets Under 44.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
McClymont: Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Football Team Over 42 (-109 via Circa)
Ducey: Dolphins vs. Jets Over 44.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Lipka: San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Under 45 (-110 via DraftKings)

SEE ALSO: Top NFL Week 11 Expert Prop Picks

Top NFL Week 11 ATS Expert Picks

Bengals -1.5 (-105) vs. Raiders

Off-field issues seem to have caught up to the Raiders, who have looked terrible in back-to-back losses.

The team is without a proper deep threat to help spread the field. That has allowed Raiders opponents to focus on stopping Pro Bowl TE Darren Waller. He hasn’t scored in four straight games, and he topped 60 yards just once in that span. The Silver & Black have scored 16 or fewer points four times already, and it’s not a shock the offense is struggling because former head coach Jon Gruden was the play-caller.

Las Vegas has been outscored by 31 points in the first quarter this season, third-worst in the NFL. The Bengals, meanwhile, are well-rested and quite healthy coming out of their bye week. They didn’t look good in their final game before the bye, a rout by the Cleveland Browns, but Cincy is 4-1 ATS in its past five following a loss by more than 14 points. – Jordan

Giants +10.5 (-110) vs. Buccaneers

Despite the Buccaneers’ recent struggles in prime-time games, they’re still listed as 10.5-point favorites for Monday night’s contest against the Giants. Tampa Bay was favored by 11 when these two teams met on Monday Night Football last season and the Bucs eked out a two-point victory. 

The Buccaneers failed to cover the spread in two prime-time games against inferior opponents last year and, again, couldn’t cover huge spreads in prime time against the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles this season. 

The Bucs are still heavily banged up and are expected to be without run-stuffing nose tackle Vita Vea and their two starting cornerbacks. The Giants have played much better of late, having won two of their last three games, and should be able to exploit the Bucs’ 22^nd-ranked pass defense. 

The Giants are winless in prime-time games with Daniel Jones at quarterback, and though they may not emerge victorious on Monday, expect them to cover the big number. – McClymont

Colts +7 (-115) vs. Bills

The Colts are simply not this bad. RB Jonathan Taylor may be the best back in the league right now, and he should help this Bills rushing defense, which ranks among the best in football, come back to Earth. Buffalo allowed 143 yards to Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry this year, and aside from him, they haven’t faced anyone nearly as good as Taylor. If he can get things going for the Colts on offense, this defense should keep them in this game.

Indianapolis had one of the best defenses in football a year ago and after a slow start has made it to ninth in weighted DVOA. It’s a great unit and should help this game become slow-paced and very close. – Ducey

Dolphins -3.5 (-105) vs. Jets

Somehow, the Jets have gotten worse under head coach Robert Saleh. Now with the worst defense in the NFL after a disturbing recent slate of performances, it’s fair to wonder if the Jets should pull the plug after Year 1 of this disaster. Nothing has gone well for New York outside of QB Mike White’s start against Cincinnati.

Miami has its own trainwreck to deal with but the Dolphins are respectable competitors as long as QB Tua Tagovoiloa plays. While I think the Dolphins have some serious fractures in their current state, they’re not bad enough to lose to the Jets. – Lipka

Top NFL Week 11 O/U Expert Picks

Dolphins vs. Jets Under 44.5 (-110

I am well aware that the Jets have surrendered 175 points over their past four games; the second-most allowed over four straight games by any team since 1970 behind the 2004 Titans (177 points). New York has given up 1,890 yards in its last four games, for the most allowed over four consecutive games in franchise history.

However, I still like the Under, simply because of the quarterback matchup: Tagovailoa vs. Joe Flacco. In the six games in which Tagovailoa has appeared this season, including Week 10 in relief, the Dolphins are averaging 16.3 points. Do I really even need to explain about Flacco? Why the Jets are starting him instead of continuing to see what they have in Mike White is truly baffling. Last year when Flacco started against Miami, the Jets were blanked. The Under is 5-1 in the past six in this series. – Jordan

Panthers vs. Washington Over 42 (-109)

In their first game with QB Cam Newton back in the fold, the Panthers put up 34 points on the Arizona Cardinals and the league’s fourth-ranked defense last Sunday. Now, Newton has a full week’s worth of practice and the added motivation of facing his former coach, Ron Rivera, and a Washington team that passed on bringing him in when it dealt with its own quarterback injuries. 

The likely reason for this low total is the Panthers’ second-ranked defense, but Carolina is not impervious to giving up points. The Panthers allowed 34 points to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 6, 25 to the lowly New York Giants in Week 7, and 24 points to New England in Week 9. Expect more of an offensive duel Sunday. – McClymont

Dolphins vs. Jets Over 44.5 (-110)

It doesn’t seem right given the fact that the Jets are among the worst teams in the league, but this offense is legit. New York has hit the Over in six straight games, and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur’s transition from the sideline to the booth in the last three games, in particular, has been a revelation. Even with Flacco at the helm this week, the Jets’ playcalling and their offensive line should be enough to get us to this Over.

New York is 11th in passing offense this year and will meet a weakened Dolphins secondary which ranks in the bottom half of the league in DVOA against the pass. On the other hand, this Jets defense may be the worst in football and has allowed 121 points in the last three games. Take the Over and don’t look back. – Ducey

49ers vs. Jaguars Under 45 (-110)

This should be a game of two rookie quarterbacks. However, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has been stubborn despite his team floundering. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has struggled mightily in the last three games, presumably hitting the rookie wall and also facing three quality defensive minds. 49ers rookie Trey Lance hasn’t played since Week 5, despite the team’s struggles.

San Francisco should win this game fairly easily even as a bad team. The Niners are barely hanging around in the playoff discussion. Therefore their priorities should shift toward playing the young guys. We all want to see Lawrence against Lance. – Lipka

SEE ALSO: All NFL Picks and Odds

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