Top 5 Value Plays To Win The American League MVP Award

I know it might seem hard to believe, but we have already played over a quarter of the Major League Baseball regular season. While it is still early, and things can certainly change, we are seeing some trends emerge, and with a decent sample size of games to pull from, we can start making some projections on how the rest of the regular season might play out. All week long, we here at TheSportsGeek are going to take a look at the future’s markets and give you some high value plays to target. Today, we kick things off by taking a look at the American League MVP Award betting odds. Let’s get started!

American League MVP Award

With most teams closing in on the 50 games played mark, there has been enough action to get a really good idea on which players are going to have good seasons and which aren’t. That’s not to say that a player that has been slumping to start the season can’t heat up, and on the flip side, a player that might be red-hot at the moment could see their production fall off or end up getting hurt and fall out of the MVP Award race altogether.

The American League’s best in 2020.

José Abreu is the AL MVP. 👏 pic.twitter.com/eWMVJpr74T

— MLB (@MLB) November 12, 2020

But remember, last year we only played a 60-game regular season, and with teams closing in on that mark already this season, it is time to start looking forward to how this regular season might finish up. And there is no better time than now to make these plays, as these lines are only going to get sharper as more games are played. Chicago White Sox slugger Jose Abreau took home the award in 2020, but so far this season in the American League, it has been the Shohei Ohtani show, as the Japanese import has been absolutely fantastic for the Los Angeles Angels. But with so much baseball still yet to be played, this race is still wide open. With that, let’s jump right into it as I show you the top 5 value plays that you need to make right now, to win the AL MVP Award in 2021!

Shohei Ohtani – Los Angeles Angels (+150)

When Shohei Ohtani first came over from Japan, he was billed as the Japanese Babe Ruth. Ohtani was a hulking player that was known for his home run hitting power at the plate and his triple-digit fastball on the mound. The comparisons to Ruth certainly made some sense on the surface, as we haven’t seen a 2-way player that can both hit and pitch at this level in generations, but despite winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award back in 2018, Ohtani has come up well short of his Ruthian expectations. Well, until this year, that is.

In his first 3 seasons playing in the majors, Angel’s management had taken a very cautious approach with Ohtani, easing him into the Big Leagues slowly. Ohtani wouldn’t play the day before or after his starts, and he wouldn’t hit in the games he would pitch. This limited playing time, coupled with some injuries, led to him only playing 254 games across his first 3 seasons. But this year, the handcuffs were taken off Ohtani, as Joe Maddon decided to let Ohtani play any time that he feels good enough to take the field, and he was finally allowed to hit in games that he pitched. To put it lightly, the results have been staggering for the still just 26-year-old superstar.

Shohei cushions the gap on his MLB home run lead. pic.twitter.com/eZDlhKd7B1

— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) May 19, 2021

It seems like nearly every day, we see some eye-popping stat that Ohtani has produced. Earlier this season, he became the 1st player ever to throw a 100-MPH fastball and hit a home run in the same inning. He has spent much of the season leading the American League in home runs while also having one of the highest K rates in the league as well. If you were to separate Ohtani the hitter and Ohtani the pitcher, he likely wouldn’t be the favorite for this award like he is right now, but you can’t just ignore the fact that this guy can do it all.

There are a couple of big reasons not to bet on Ohtani to win this award right now. The 1st reason is that the price stinks. Ohtani is the prohibitive favorite to take home MVP honors at +150, with the next closest player being Vlad Guererro Jr. at +650, and then a couple of guys even further back at +1300. It is very rare that taking such a huge favorite this early in the season is the highest value play on the board.

Shohei Ohtani singles in the top of the 7th inning, records his 10th strikeout in the bottom of the 7th, then plays right field in the bottom of the 8th pic.twitter.com/Ks27rcJ39g

— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) May 12, 2021

The other thing that scares me about backing Ohtani is the fact that his team is awful, and the Angels may very well end up in last place when all is said and done this season. It is very hard to argue that you are the most valuable player in the entire league if you are not valuable enough to even carry your team to a winning record. Even with these major red flags, Ohtani still certainly shows plenty of value, as this price is only going to drop as he continues to rack up stats we haven’t seen in nearly 100 years.

With this brutal routine Ohtani is trying to keep up with, he famously struck out 10 batters in a game and then went and played the outfield the rest of the game after he was pulled from the mound, injuries are a concern, as the wear and tear is going to be immense. But if we spend the rest of the regular season watching Ohtani do things we haven’t ever seen before and he manages to stay healthy, this is his award to lose.

Xander Bogarts – Boston Red Sox (+1800)

Now that we have gotten the elephant in the room out of the way by discussing Shohei Ohtani, we can start to highlight some of the higher priced and higher value, players on the board. If I had to take a stand on my favorite bet on the board right now, I would take Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogarts. Bogarts is no stranger to the AL MVP voting, as he has finished with MVP votes in the AL in each of the last 3 seasons, finishing 5th in 2019. And this season, Bogarts is enjoying his best season ever for Boston, as he has been absolutely hammering the baseball and has helped lead this Boston team that had limited expectations entering the season, to the best record in the league.

Bogarts is currently 2nd in the AL in batting average at a steaming hot .345 and his on-base percentage (.402), slugging percentage (.602), and OPS (1.004) are all near the top of the league. If you are a believer in wins above replacement (WAR) as a good gauge for a player’s overall value, Bogarts in 3rd in the majors and 2nd in the AL, trailing only Twins outfielder Byron Buxton for the lead in the American League. His on-paper results are certainly elite, and playing at a glamour position like shortstop, while hitting clean up for a Red Sox team that leads the majors in runs scored, he will get lots of opportunities to make plays and help out his own cause.

X-tending the lead! pic.twitter.com/zzoHsslu7L

— Red Sox (@RedSox) May 23, 2021

While Ohtani is going to have to overcome the fact that he plays on a bad team, if Boston is able to hold onto 1st place in the AL East Division, they could end the season with the best record in the league. Many times, we see the MVP Award go to the best player, on the best team, and right now, it is hard to argue that Xander Bogarts isn’t that guy. As the weather starts to heat up, so is Bogarts, as he has been smoking hot in the month of May, slashing .365/.442/.678 with 6 homers, 17 RBI, and 16 runs scored in just 74 at-bats. The best might still be to come for Bogarts, and if that is indeed the case, he shows outrageous value right now at 18-1.

Adolis Garcia – Texas Rangers (+10,000)

I know you likely don’t know this guy’s name, but you should. Surprisingly, you can’t even find odds on Garcia to win the AL MVP Award at most online books, as the books have been slow to recognize the fact that this kid is a monster at the plate. It was a long and winding road for Garcia to become a regular in the show, as he defected from Cuba in 2017 and had stops in Asia, as well as a brief stint with the St. Louis Cardinals, before finally finding a home in the Ranger’s outfield.

Garcia is tied with Ohtani for the AL lead in home runs, and he has managed to hit his 14 bombs in 22 fewer at-bats than Ohtani. His .295 batting average is good for 16th in the league, and his 2.3 WAR is 5th in the AL, ahead of guys like JD Martinez, Mike Trout, and Jose Ramirez. When you look at his 37 RBI, which is 4th most in the league, it is even more impressive when you notice that the Rangers are one of the lowest scoring teams in terms of runs per game.

You cannot miss an @AdolisJose at-bat. #StraightUpTX pic.twitter.com/NUsWilnmbr

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) May 23, 2021

Garcia got a late start to his season, making his season debut on April 14th, and after a mediocre month of April, he has been crushing the ball here in May. The 28-year-old Cuban has his eyes set on the AL player of the month award, as he is hitting .338 with 9 home runs and 23 RBI this month. In reality, this is the 1st full month of regular play that we have ever seen out of Garcia, and you have to think he still has lots of room to improve. The Rangers aren’t going to be a very good team this season, and that hurts his chances, as he isn’t going to get much attention playing for a bad team in a small market. But if you can find a line on Adolis Garcia, snatch it up because as soon as this guy takes home the player of the month award in a week, the word will be out on him, and the odds are certain to plummet. You want value? 100-1 for a guy that is top-5 in homers, RBI, and WAR is insane level value.

Byron Buxton – Minnesota Twins (+1600)

There wasn’t a player in the American League that had a better month of April than the Minnesota Twin’s Byron Buxton. The speedy centerfielder with the Golden Glove posted video game numbers in April, with a .426 batting average, .897 slugging percentage, and 1.363 OPS, all of which led MLB. Buxton finished second in the league in home runs and extra-base hits during the month and was named the AL player of the month. After finishing the season’s first month on top, Buxton hurt his hip and was sent to the IL on May 7th.

At first, Twin’s management thought the injury was going to be a major one, but now it looks like Buxton is going to be back on the field sooner rather than later and he could rejoin the team early next week. Buxton was once the number 1 prospect in all of baseball when he broke into the Big Leagues at age-21, and despite winning a Gold Glove award and finishing with MVP votes twice in his 5-year career, many felt that he wasn’t living up to his full potential. Well, he is now, and if he can get back quickly and is healthy, he has the stats to be right in the thick of the AL MVP race.

Byron Buxton was the deserving winner of the AL Player of the Month Award for his April.

Besides him, which other #MNTwins had a solid first month?https://t.co/yqPzdujz8b

— Twins Daily (@twinsdaily) May 4, 2021

Only once in his career has Buxton been able to play at least 100-games in a season, and sadly injuries have slowed down a very promising career. He will need to dodge the injury bullet the rest of the way out to have any real shot at taking home the MVP Award, but Buxton still leads the AL in WAR at 2.8, and if his stats had enough at-bats to qualify, he would lead the league in batting average (.370), slugging percentage (.772), and OPS (1.180). If Buxton gets back into action this week and picks up where he left off, you are going to see him pull even with Ohtani as the favorite in this race. That is a mighty big IF, and we need a lot of things to break right for Buxton to get back on, and stay on, the field, but statistically, nobody is having a better year than Byron Buxton and right now is a great time to buy low on him.

JD Martinez – Boston Red Sox (+1800)

For whatever reason, Boston Red Sox slugger JD Martinez tends to always get overlooked when it comes to being recognized for what he is, one of the most consistent power hitters in the game. Maybe it is because he isn’t great in the field and ends up as the DH often for Boston? Going back to his time with the Detroit Tigers, Martinez can be counted on for 35+ home runs and 100+ RBI, with a better than .300 batting average year in and year out.

It’s not like Martinez has been completely ignored by the media, he has made multiple All-Star teams and has a couple of Silver Slugger Awards on his resume as well, but the highest he has ever finished in the AL MVP Award race was 4th in 2018 when he hit .330 with 43 dingers and 130 RBI. JD is on pace for similar stats this year, and with the baseball deadened in the offseason and pitchers throwing no-hitters seemingly every day, that level of production is going to stand out more this year than ever before.

Xander Bogaerts – 10 HR, 14 doubles
Rafael Devers – 12 HR, 14 doubles
J.D. Martinez – 12 HR, 10 doubles

This is the first Red Sox trio ever to record at least 10 HR and 10 doubles each in the team’s first 50 games.

— Red Sox Notes (@SoxNotes) May 23, 2021

Martinez has stepped up his game in a couple of places as well, and you can argue that he is having his best season ever. He leads the AL in runs scored (38), is 5th in batting average (.328), 5th in home runs (12), 4th in RBI (37), 4th in on-base percentage (.404), 6th in slugging percentage (.592), 4th in OPS (.996), and 5th in WAR (2.3). It is always tough when you have multiple players from the same team competing for major awards, as they tend to split the vote. But if the Red Sox continue their tear through the AL East Division, there is going to be plenty of praise to spread around. Martinez has been criminally overlooked in the past by the MVP voting committee, and this year could be the year they decided to finally give him some well-deserved recognition.

Wrap Up

Well, there you have it, folks, my picks for the top 5 value plays to bet on right now to win the American League MVP Award. With over 100 games left on the schedule still to be played, there is going to be a lot of movement on these odds, and you are going to want to lock your action in now for maximum value. Speaking of value, make sure that you swing by TheSportsGeek’s MLB picks page, where we bring you free daily Major League Baseball betting picks each and every day. Thanks for reading, and good luck betting on Major League Baseball!