The Super Bowl is the single biggest prop betting event of the sports betting year.
To help you sort through all the noise, our best analysts break down more than 30 (!) of their favorite player prop bets for Chiefs-Buccaneers. There’s a lot to cover, so no need to waste any more time — let’s jump right in.
Super Bowl Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes Under 28.5 Completions
Sean Koerner: My projection of 329.5 passing yards is slightly higher than the market, which has settled at 325.5 yards.
It’s hard not to love Mahomes in this spot: The Chiefs will lean on him even more against a pass funnel defense like Tampa Bay’s unit. However, a four-yard difference isn’t enough to trigger a bet — that’s why I find it interesting that my projections are showing quite a bit of value in him going under his completion prop.
Mahomes is averaging 12.1 yards per completion this season, which if you multiply that by 28 completions, would be 339 yards. Think of this prop as a sneaky way to take under 339 yards. He has cleared 28.5 completions in only 6-of-17 games this season (35%).
I’m projecting him to go under this number about 59% of the time, which is worth a bet at -124, which is available at DraftKings as of Saturday.
Patrick Mahomes Over 41.5 Pass Attempts
Chris Raybon: Mahomes has attempted 42 or more passes in 9-of-17 games, including a season-high 49 against the Bucs. The Chiefs called a pass on 76% of their plays in the first matchup and there is no reason for them to do anything differently this time around against Tampa Bay’s No. 1 run defense.
BetMGM is offering this over at 41.5 (+105) as of Saturday night. I would bet it to 42.5 (+105).
Leonard Fournette Most Rushing Yards (+175)
Sean Koerner: The majority of my Super Bowl prop bets are on unders. That’s no coincidence: Sportsbooks are getting significantly more money on the overs — to be fair, who wants to root for a player to do nothing? Still, many of these props are inflated as a result, exposing some value on unders.
That said, there are other ways to bet on big performances from certain players. This prop is a good example: I consider it as a unique way to bet on Fournette’s over.
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Bucs RB Leonard FournetteI’m bullish on Fournette and Ronald Jones against the Chiefs, who rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA against the run — they practically invite teams to run against them. As a result, the Bucs should continue to ride “Playoff Lenny,” who should get 2-3 more carries than Jones in this game.
On the other side of the ball, I don’t expect the Chiefs to run much. When they do, it’s likely to be an even 50/50 split between Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams. Taking Fournette at +175 is also a way to bet against both Kansas City running backs here.
My fair odds for Fournette to lead the Super Bowl in rushing yards is +135. I would only bet this down to +150, but DraftKings is offering +175 as of Saturday.
Patrick Mahomes Over 19.5 Rush Yards
Raheem Palmer: The Chiefs are missing starting offensive tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz while still being a pass-heavy offense, which should create opportunities for Mahomes to run.
This prop is priced lower than it should be based on the perception that his turf toe injury is still impacting him. While he did rush for just five yards in the AFC Championship, that was two weeks ago in a game that wasn’t competitive mid-way through the second quarter.
The Buccaneers have a solid pass rush and are prone to blitz, so we should see Mahomes have opportunities to run here. He’s hit this total in nine out of his 16 games this season so it’s clear he’s hitting this more often than not.
FanDuel is offering the best line as of Saturday at 19.5 (-122). I would play it up to 20.
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Ronald Jones Over 8.5 Rush Attempts
Stuckey: Leonard Fournette is getting all of the love and publicity among Bucs running backs after a few breakout games. “Playoff Lenny” has averaged more than 100 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown in three games this postseason.
I actually think that’s created value on Jones’ overs against a Kansas City defense that ranks 31st in rush defense DVOA. Jones missed the Wild Card Round after suffering a pre-game quad injury, but got 21 and 18 snaps in the Divisional Round and NFC Championship, respectively. He also had double-digit carries in both games.
I think this line should be set closer to 10.
Plus, It would not surprise me if Tampa uses a heavier rush-script early on to exploit Kansas City’s weak run defense and keep Mahomes on the sidelines. Ultimately, I wouldn’t be shocked in the least if Jones finishes with about the same rushing workload as Fournette.
DraftKings is offering the best line as of Saturday, with the under 8.5 priced at -112.
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Bucs RB Ronald JonesRonald Jones Over 8.5 Rush Attempts & Over 35.5 Rush Yards
Raheem Palmer: Jones may not be a pass-catcher, but he is their workhorse out of the backfield.
Jones has had more than 8.5 carries in 13 of their 16 games. The Buccaneers are top 10 in run vs. pass ratio (56%/44%) on first downs, and I expect that to continue against a Chiefs defense that ranks 29th in rushing success rate (45.7%) and gives up 4.5 yards per carry.
I would play the over on his attempts up to 9 and his yards up to 39. You can get the former at DraftKings for 8.5 (-112) and the latter at FanDuel for 35.5 (-110) as of Saturday.
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Darrel Williams Under 8.5 Rush Attempts
Stuckey: We have another inflated number here due to recency bias.
Williams has had 13 carries in each of Kansas City’s two playoff games, but 11 of his 13 carries were the final carries of the game in a run-the-clock out script against Buffalo’s much weaker run defense in the AFC Championship, 10 of which came in the fourth quarter. And more than half of his carries in the Divisional Round against Cleveland came after Mahomes left the game.
Williams had more than 8.5 rush attempts in only 3-of-16 regular-season games. And much like the first meeting against the Bucs, when Mahomes threw the ball 43 times over the first three quarters, I don’t expect the Chiefs to even try too many traditional runs against the NFL’s top rush defense.
Not only do I think the Chiefs use their receivers more in the run game, I think the speedier Clyde Edwards-Helaire has a much better shot of success on the ground from a matchup perspective. And hey, maybe Le’Veon Bell will steal a carry or two, although I’m not counting on any from the ex-Jet who may not even suit up.
David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Chiefs RB Darrel WilliamsYes, there’s a game-script scenario in which this could get messy late if the Chiefs have a big lead, but I think the Chiefs could even stay more aggressive than usual against the Bucs’ superb run defense.
DraftKings is offering the best line as of Saturday.
Darrel Williams Under 30.5 Rush Yards
Raheem Palmer: While Williams rushed 13 times for 78 yards against the Browns in the AFC Divisional Round and 13 times for 52 yards against the Bills in the AFC Championship, he’ll be facing the toughest matchup of the postseason this week.
With the Buccaneers holding opposing teams to just 3.8 yards per carry and a rushing success rate of 34%, I don’t think Williams will have the same success. Also with Clyde Edwards-Helaire having a few weeks to get healthy, we may see running back by committee with him and Le’Veon Bell this week.
Something worthy to note is that Aaron Jones, Melvin Gordon, Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Cam Akers and Todd Gurley have all failed to hit 30 yards against this Buccaneers defense. I’m not seeing Williams going over this prop.
I’ll take Darrel Williams under 30.5 rushing yards, which you can get at FanDuel as of Saturday. I’d play this down to 30.
Darrel Williams Under 45.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-140)
Chris Raybon: Entering the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship, the Chiefs were up 31-15 and Williams had four touches for 22 yards. He then proceeded to rattle off 10 touches for 39 yards in extended garbage time while Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t even see a touch.
The Chiefs had most of their rushing success on the edge in the first matchup against the Buccaneers, which suits the more explosive Edwards-Helaire more than Williams, whose forte is running downhill — between-the-tackles — so in addition to a repeat of extended garbage time being unlikely, I have doubts that Williams would even see the garbage time carries in a similar situation.
In the first matchup against the Bucs, the Chiefs got up 17-0, and Edwards-Helaire out-touched Le’Veon Bell and Williams combined, 12-7. Even on 12 touches, Edwards-Helaire mustered only 39 yards, and I don’t expect Williams to out-touch him or beat that mark.
BetMGM has this at 45.5 (-140) as of Saturday night. I would bet it to 40.5 (-115).
Travis Kelce Most Receiving Yards (+260)
Sean Koerner: Like my reasoning for Fournette earlier, I consider this as a sneaky way to bet on Kelce’s over.
I am right in line with his yardage prop at 95.5 yards. However, he and Tyreek Hill are more likely to have ceiling games with the Chiefs lacking a true No. 3 receiving threat.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Chiefs TE Travis KelceThe Bucs spread the ball around much more, making it more difficult for Mike Evans, Chris Godwin or Antonio Brown to hit their ceilings.
I have Kelce’s fair odds to lead the game in receiving yards closer to +170 and would bet it down to +210. FanDuel is offering it at +260 as of Saturday.
Tyreek Hill Over 7.5 Receptions
Matthew Freedman: In the Super Bowl last year, Hill had nine receptions. In the Divisional Round, he had eight. In the AFC Championship, he had nine.
And in Week 12 against the Bucs, he had a career-high 13 receptions.
Since Week 8, Hill has averaged 10.7 targets per game.
With this data, it’s hard for me not to bet the over.
- Action: Over 7.5 (+115) at DraftKings
- Limit: Over 7.5 (-110)
Tyreek Hill Over 92.5 Yards Receiving
Matthew Freedman: Betting the over on a big-name player is an embarrassingly square thing to do — but I can’t help myself with Hill. As I mention in my Super Bowl WR/CB matchup breakdown, I do not believe that the Buccaneers have a cornerback who can hang with the speedy playmaker.
First of all, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid constantly moves his receivers around the field, which means that it will be hard for the Bucs to scheme to take away Hill.
On top of that, regardless of where he lines up he always has the potential to go off.
David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Chiefs WR Tyreek HillIn the Super Bowl last year, Hill was 9-105-0 receiving on 16 targets. In two playoff games this year, he is 17-282-0 on 21 targets. And against the Bucs in Week 12, he was a career-best 13-269-3 on 15 targets.
A three-time All-Pro, Hill is one of the best receivers in the league. With his speed and ability to line up on the perimeter and in the slot, Hill is an incredibly difficult player to scheme against for opposing defenses.
And in the slot, where I expect him to line up most, Hill has a real edge over cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, who is the most vulnerable of the three starting corners for the Bucs. For his career, he has allowed a 74.3% catch rate, and this year in particular he has yielded 9.0 yards per target and seven touchdowns.
Against Murphy-Bunting, Hill should put up stats.
- Action: Over 92.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: Over 98.5 (-110)
Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions
Matthew Freedman: At most books, this line is 8.5, which I think is fair. I have it projected for 8.7, and since Week 8, Kelce has averaged 8.6 receptions per game.
But at BetMGM this line is 7.5, and I’m betting that for sure.
Since Week 8, Kelce has had 10-plus targets in every game but one, and over that stretch his receptions prop over is 9-1.
In his past 10 games, Kelce has failed to amass eight-plus receptions just once.
With his sheer target volume — Kelce has a median of 12 targets since Week 8 — he has a strong chance of hitting the over.
- Action: Over 7.5 (-135) at BetMGM
- Limit: Over 7.5 (-180)
Travis Kelce Over 94.5 Yards Receiving
Matthew Freedman: In case you are unaware, I am a donkey. And as a full-fledged ass, I am highly inclined to bet the over on every Kelce prop I see.
In the regular season, he set an NFL record for all tight ends with 1,416 yards receiving — in only 15 games — and as good as Kelce was for the entirety of the season, he was even better in the second half.
For Kelce’s 17 games this year (including postseason), he has a median of 98 yards, but since Week 8 — when quarterback Patrick Mahomes started targeting him at a higher frequency of drop backs — Kelce has a median of 113.5 yards.
For the season, Kelce’s yardage prop over is 12-5. Since Week 8, it’s 8-2.
David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Chiefs TE Travis KelceOn the one hand, Kelce had “only” eight targets and 82 yards against the Buccaneers in Week 12.
On the other, those eight targets were the fewest he has seen in any game since Week 8. And in the regular season the Bucs were most vulnerable against tight ends, ranking No. 25 with an 11.6% pass-defense DVOA against the position (per Football Outsiders).
This is a great matchup for Kelce, who is 21-227-3 on 25 targets in two playoff games this year.
It’s not hard to imagine him smashing.
- Action: Over 96.5 (-115) at PointsBet
- Limit: Over 98.5 (-110)
Travis Kelce 90 & Rob Gronkowski 50 Rec Yards (+500)
Brandon Anderson: I’m expecting Sunday to be a huge game for both tight ends. Kelce in particular is set up for a monster game.
Hill lit the Bucs up in the November matchup, and I doubt Tampa Bay will let that happen again. Instead, I expect a lot more two-deep and zone coverage, and that should let Kelce eat. He’s been doing that all season, and even better over the second half of the year, and the Bucs are not particularly good defending tight ends.
Kelce has 1,142 yards since just the start of November, with at least eight catches in 10 of the 11 games over that stretch, and he’s doing even more in the playoffs. He had eight catches for 82 yards against the Bucs in the first matchup, and hilariously, that’s probably his worst game in the last three months.
He’s scored a touchdown in six straight and 12-of-17 games this season. He should find the end zone here and has a strong chance of hitting 100 yards.
I’m more nervous about the Gronkowski end of this prop, but that’s why we’re getting 5-to-1 odds. He hasn’t been putting up big numbers, but this is why the guy came out of retirement, and he has a knack for saving his best for the very biggest moments. Gronk had six catches for 87 yards in his last Super Bowl. He had nine for 116 and a pair of scores the year before, and six for 68 and a score in the Super Bowl before that.
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski, QB Tom BradyGronk has only two catches in three games this postseason, and this is not the Gronkowski of old. But when the chips are down and Brady needs a big play, I think he’ll look to dial it up a couple times to his big man. Gronk had his biggest game of the season against the Chiefs in November: Six catches for 108 yards, including a huge 48-yard catch.
You can play different versions of this. There’s Kelce over 90 and Gronk over 40 at +340, and there’s an 80/30 combo at +185. I’m going for gold. Give me the GOAT tight end matchup we deserve and let’s see if we can hit this 5-to-1.
Mike Evans Under 4.5 Receptions
Matthew Freedman: This number isn’t massively off, but I think it’s a little high. I have Evans projected for 4.1 receptions.
This year, he has averaged 4.2 receptions across 19 games with a median of 4.0, and against the Chiefs in Week 12 he had just three receptions despite seeing nine targets.
As I’ve said already, the matchup is tough: In the regular season, the Chiefs held opposing wide receivers to a league-low 169 receptions.
With his size and skill, Evans can bully his way to five-plus receptions in any given game, but because of the Chiefs’ pass defense, I think the under is likely.
- Action: Under 4.5 (-120) at DraftKings
- Limit: Under 4.5 (-130)
Mike Evans Under 63.5 Yards Receiving
Matthew Freedman: Evans is great. That’s undeniable. This year, Evans became the first player in NFL history to open his career with seven 1,000-yard receiving campaigns.
When the NFL Hall of Fame is tweeting about a guy, he’s probably pretty good.
The HOF is tweeting about Mike Evans 👀 https://t.co/S9E1wIDYMW
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) January 3, 2021
But as I mention in my Super Bowl WR/CB matchup breakdown, his matchup is tough.
The Chiefs don’t have any truly dominant corners, but in the regular season they were No. 2 in fewest yards allowed to wide receivers with 2,159, and that’s a function of their scheme, which is designed to limit big plays deep and on the perimeter.
Essentially, the Chiefs’ pass defense is structured to funnel production away from wide receivers and toward tight ends and running backs, and that’s not good for Evans.
We saw this dynamic at work when the Bucs played the Chiefs in Week 12: Evans scored two touchdowns on nine targets and quarterback Tom Brady passed for 345 yards — yet Evans had just 50 yards on three receptions.
How is it possible for Brady to pass for so many yards and for Evans to get so few of them?
Tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate combined for 140 yards, and running backs Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones combined for 47 yards.
Even if Brady goes off — and there’s no guarantee that he will — it’s far from a certainty that his production will flow to Evans: The Chiefs’ pass defense is constructed to prevent exactly that.
Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Bucs WR Mike EvansAt right corner, Bashaud Breeland will likely match up most with Evans, and this year Breeland has allowed just 6.5 yards per target with a 58.8% catch rate.
Breeland has also allowed five touchdowns this year and can be beaten deep on occasion, but he is a physical corner who won’t be afraid to mix it up with Evans.
Against Breeland specifically in Week 12, Evans had just seven yards on five targets.
As great as Evans is, he has gone over 63.5 yards receiving in just 7-of-19 games.
- Action: Under 63.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: Over 59.5 (-110)
Chris Godwin Under 77.5 Yards Receiving
Matthew Freedman: On the Buccaneers, Mike Evans is the wide receiver who gets the glory: He’s the guy to open his career with seven consecutive 1,000-yard receiving campaigns.
But over the past two years, Godwin has arguably been the better receiver (including postseason).
- Chris Godwin (29 games): 165-2,396-17 receiving | 10.3 yards per target
- Mike Evans (32 games): 147-2,336-23 receiving | 9.4 yards per target
But as I mention in my Super Bowl WR/CB matchup breakdown, his matchup is tough.
The Chiefs don’t have any truly dominant corners, but in the regular season they were No. 2 in fewest yards allowed to wide receivers with 2,159, and that’s a function of their scheme, which is designed to limit big plays deep and on the perimeter.
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Bucs WR Chris GodwinEssentially, the Chiefs’ pass defense is structured to funnel production away from wide receivers and toward tight ends and running backs.
On top of that, fourth-round rookie L’Jarius Sneed has been a difference-making standout in the slot, where Godwin is likely to play most of his snaps. Sneed (concussion) is still in the league’s protocol and is officially questionable, but he has practiced in full this week, and I tentatively expect him to be cleared to play.
In Weeks 1-3, Snead started on the perimeter in cornerback Bashaud Breeland’s absence, and then, after missing Weeks 4-10 to injury, he shifted to the middle in Week 11 and has been the starter there ever since.
Despite his status as a mid-round first-year slot man, Sneed has allowed just 5.0 yards per target with a 1:3 TD:INT ratio and a 73.3 PFF coverage grade.
Godwin had a muscular 97 yards receiving on nine targets against the Chiefs in Week 12, but much of that production came when he was matched up with other cornerbacks or safeties. Against Sneed directly, he was just 2-10-0 on two targets — and that was just Sneed’s second week as the full-time slot defender. Sneed has gotten better since then.
As much as any rookie can, Sneed should challenge the veteran Godwin.
- Action: Under 77.5 (-118) at DraftKings
- Limit: Over 72.5 (-110)
Darrel Williams Under 2.5 Receptions
Sean Koerner: This is the first Super Bowl player prop to immediately stand out.
The Chiefs’ backfield will be very tricky to project since they’re likely to use the “hot hand” approach with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams.
Williams averaged 60% routes run with CEH out of the lineup in Week 13, Week 16 and the Divisional Round. By contrast, Williams averaged 21% routes run in the past three games with CEH in the lineup (Week 14, Week 15 and the AFC Championship). For the Super Bowl, I’m projecting Williams to be in the 35-40% range, which would place his projection closer to 1.7 receptions.
The other variable that adds value to this under is the availability of Le’Veon Bell. He was inactive for the AFC Championship due to a knee injury but should be available for the Super Bowl. I’m not expecting Bell to see more than a few snaps, but if he ends up getting more playing time than anticipated, it would only eat into Williams’ usage.
The juice on this under has already moved at BetMGM. I would bet it down to -180.
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Leonard Fournette Over 3.5 Receptions
Raheem Palmer: The Buccaneers are loaded with an embarrassment of riches to catch passes from Tom Brady, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate.
Despite that, guess who’s second in targets in the postseason? RB Leonard Fournette, who has 17 targets and 14 receptions over the last three games against the Washington Football Team, New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers.
In Arians’ risk-it-no-biscuit offense, Brady leads the league in Intended Air Yards (9.5) but the strength of his game is still the short passing game that he executed in New England with James White and Dion Lewis.
Ronald Jones hasn’t been a factor in the passing game this postseason, as he has just one target and zero receptions during the past three games. It’s clear Fournette is the safety net and checkdown option for Brady in this offense, so he should have no problem hitting this over which he’s hit every game of this postseason.
I would play this only at 3.5, which you can still get at BetMGM.
Leon Halip/Getty Images. Pictured: Buccaneers RB Leonard FournetteLeonard Fournette Over 3.5 Receptions
Stuckey: While Fournette is getting too much love in the rushing prop market, I don’t think he’s getting enough when it comes to catching balls out of the backfield. He’s the clear pass-catching option for Tampa Bay right now — Jones has only had one target in his past three games combined.
It’s true that Fournette had at least four catches in only three of the 11 regular-season games he played at least 10 snaps in, but he’s being utilized in the Bucs’ revamped short passing game much more frequently of late — he’s cleared this 3.5 reception hurdle in all three playoff games with totals of four, five and five.
Plus, this is an ideal matchup against a Chiefs’ pass defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against opposing backs. I also expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to blitz at a high rate, which would lead to more opportunities for Brady to check it down to Fournette.
In 18 games this season, the Chiefs have allowed opposing backs to catch 95 passes on 126 targets for 820 yards — that’s a single-game average of 5.3 receptions on 7.0 targets for 45.5 yards.
It’s hard to imagine Fournette not getting almost every running back target. Plus, I’m fairly certain most of Kansas City’s attention on defense will, as usual, be focused on slowing down Tampa Bay’s dangerous weapons on the outside.
I like this up to -150.
My podcast co-host Chris Raybon, who has much more props expertise, projects Fournette to finish with 4.5 catches. Let’s just hope that we can avoid the drops that killed our Devin Singletary and Chris Godwin props. Maybe Lenny could even haul in a miraculous one-handed catch to get us to four catches on the last play of the game to make up for our loss on Jimmy Graham against the Saints. Yes, I’m still bitter.
Sammy Watkins Under 3.5 Receptions
Sean Koerner: Watkins was able to practice on a limited basis on Thursday and should be able to suit up for the big game. I’m projecting him to return to his typical role, which will be about 75% routes run per dropback.
The reason I love his under is the possibility that he’s limited to a 50-70% routes run rate. Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle are more than capable of stepping up for Watkins if he’s limited.
I’m projecting Watkins at his ceiling and still showing a fair price for this prop at -150. It’s available at -134 at DraftKings as of Saturday, but I’m willing to bet it down to -170.
Byron Pringle Over 7.5 Receiving Yards
Michael Arinze: Pringle has gotten some snaps at wide receiver, particularly with Sammy Watkins last playing in Week 16. Pringle has had at least two catches in each of Kansas City’s last two games for a total of 36 yards.
Watkins was back practicing with the team at the end of the week as a full participant but is still listed as questionable. I don’t think the veteran receiver’s usage will be dialed all the way up, and we could still get some Pringle sprinkled into the mix.
David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Chiefs WR Byron PringleIt doesn’t hurt that Hill thinks highly enough of Pringle that he’s lobbying for him to get more targets.
Pringle is a Tampa Bay native, and I can’t see the hometown kid not being utilized a bit more in this game. This is one of my favorite props on the board, which you can get at DraftKings — we only need him to get eight receiving yards to cash.
Antonio Brown Longest Reception Under 18.5 yards (+100)
Chris Raybon: Brown has been held to a long of 16 or below in 6-of-10 games this season, and I expect that to continue against a Chiefs defense that has finished top two in fewest yards allowed to wide receivers in each of Steve Spagnuolo’s two years with the team. Kansas City limited Brown to 2 catches for 11 yards on three targets in the first matchup, but even if he catches a few more than two passes, a gain of 19 or more would have been unlikely, as his average depth of target was 4.7 in that game and 8.9 this season.
You can bet this at 18.5 yards (+100) at BetMGM as of Saturday night. I like it down to 16.5 (-115).
Scotty Miller Under 1.5 Receptions
Matthew Freedman: In his 10 games with Brown, Miller has gone over 1.5 receptions just once. And the Chiefs held opposing wide receivers to a league-low 169 receptions in the regular season.
I can’t imagine being a living, breathing human being with free will and a ready bankroll and not betting this prop.
- Action: Under 1.5 (-162) at DraftKings
- Limit: Under 1.5 (-200)
Scotty Miller Under 20.5 Receiving Yards
Sean Koerner: Antonio Brown is listed as questionable, but practiced in full on Friday, making him likely to suit up on Sunday. His return will cut into Miller’s playing time, which I’m projecting to be around 35% routes run per dropback.
When a deep threat like Miller sees a significant drop in playing time, it creates even more value on their under.
I’m projecting him for 1.3 receptions, which seems to be in line with the market, with his over 1.5 receptions set at +130 and under at -162. Why the heck do they have his yardage prop at 20.5 though?
Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Buccaneers WR Scotty MillerThere’s a 27.3% chance, based on my player prop simulations, that he doesn’t finish with any catches and we win!
If he has one catch, which is the most likely scenario based on my simulations (35.4% of the time), we would still win about 75% of the time because 28 of his 37 receptions this season were under 20.5 yards.
Even if he has more than one catch, we would still have a chance: My simulations give him a 9.8% chance of hauling in two or more passes and remaining under 20.5 receiving yards.
All of that adds up to a 12.6% edge on his under.
There’s still a bit of risk when locking in this prop considering Brown may not be healthy enough to play his usual 50-60% routes run. Because of this, I would be willing to bet this down to only -140. You can get -105 at FanDuel as of Saturday.
Scotty Miller Under 20.5 Receiving Yards
Stuckey: This obviously isn’t for the faint of heart, as it could lose on one play. However, this number is simply too high as a result of recency bias since Miller has hauled in a few big catches this postseason.
Let’s look at the entire season where Miller played in 19 games, including the playoffs. He would’ve gone under this total 11 of 19 times. And that includes a number of games when Tampa’s receiving corps was not at full strength, which I expect them to be here.
Yes, I’m assuming that Antonio Brown will be available after getting three weeks of rest for his knee. And don’t forget about the very capable Tyler Johnson. For what it’s worth, Miller had zero catches and one target on 11 snaps against the Chiefs earlier this year in a game Brady threw it 41 times in comeback mode.
Again, shop around! I’ve seen this prop priced anywhere between 14.5 and 20.5, though it’s available at 20.5 with -105 juice at FanDuel as of Saturday. I would play it down to 17. I also played his under 1.5 catches at higher juice — that under also would’ve cashed in 11 of his 19 games this season.
Scotty Miller Under 20.5 Yards Receiving
Matthew Freedman: Miller has a number of factors working against him.
First of all, Antonio Brown is on track to play in the Super Bowl. While that’s good for the Buccaneers, that’s massively detrimental to Miller’s production: In his 10 games with Brown, Miller has gone over 20.5 yards receiving just twice.
On top of that, Miller has recently had to compete with rookie Tyler Johnson for playing time. In the regular season, Miller played well ahead of Johnson first as a starter and then as a rotational receiver once Brown joined the team, but in the postseason they have had similar usage.
- Scotty Miller (3 games): 44 snaps | 30 routes
- Tyler Johnson (3 games): 46 snaps | 28 routes
With Brown playing ahead of him and Johnson pressing him for snaps, Miller will have an especially hard time hitting the over.
And none of this takes into account his matchup. As I mention in my Super Bowl WR/CB matchup breakdown, the Chiefs are tough against opposing receivers.
Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Bucs WR Scotty MillerThey don’t have any truly dominant corners but in the regular season, they were No. 2 in fewest yards allowed to wide receivers with 2,159, and that’s a function of their scheme, which is designed to limit big plays deep and on the perimeter.
Essentially, the Chiefs pass defense is structured to funnel production away from wide receivers and toward tight ends and running backs, and that’s not good for Miller.
We saw this dynamic at work when the Bucs played the Chiefs in Week 12, when the tight ends and running backs combined for 187 yards receiving while Miller had zero yards on one target and 10 snaps.
The matchup is tough — and Miller probably won’t get enough playing time anyway.
- Action: Under 20.5 (-105) at FanDuel
- Limit: Under 15.5 (-110)
Patrick Mahomes First TD +2200 & Anytime TD +300
Raheem Palmer: The Chiefs have actually scored the first touchdown in 10 of their 18 games. Mahomes and Hill have each scored three of those 10 touchdowns.
It’s hard not to like Mahomes because he’s always a threat to score anytime the Chiefs are in the red zone. Flash back to last year in Super Bowl 54: Darwin Thompson was stopped at the 1-yard line on first down, and the very next play Mahomes scored on a keeper. With the absence of Fisher and Schwartz on the offensive line, we can assume that Mahomes will be under more pressure, meaning he’ll be making more plays with his legs.
Getty Images. Pictured: Chiefs QB Patrick MahomesI also don’t see him throwing deep much, and if this team methodically moves the ball down the field with less explosive plays, the Chiefs may find themselves in a similar situation to last year where they have the ball inside the 5-yard line with a chance to score. With the Chiefs not having a true goal-line back, Mahomes typically gets touches.
BetMGM is offering the best odds on him to score first (+2200) and anytime (+300) as of Saturday.
First TD: Ronald Jones +1800; Rob Gronkowski +1800
Collin Wilson: Andy Reid won seven coin tosses and elected to defer in every single instance during the 2020 season. In 2019, the Chiefs won 10 tosses and elected to defer in each instance.
If Kansas City wins the coin toss, it is a safe bet that Tampa will get the ball first. It has been a different story with Bruce Arians, who started the season deferring every coin flip. That all changed after Christmas, when the Bucs won the coin tosses against the Falcons and Lions and elected to receive.
Is it possible Arians wants Brady and the offense on the field first? Tampa Bay has not won a toss in the playoffs, but the Bucs have scored on their first drive in 2-of-3 playoff games. If there’s a high probability that the Bucs will get the ball first, props should be associated with that chance.
No Tampa Bay player has more red zone passing targets than Evans at 24, with Gronkowski at 22 and Cameron Bate at just six. From a rushing perspective, Jones tallied 36 attempts to Fournette’s 27, but do not count out Brady, who has 11 rushing attempts himself.
With a similar number of targets, the Gronkowski price should be closer to Evans’ price, but we will take the value on +1800 at BetMGM. As for the rushing aspect, Jones has seen 46% of attempts in the red zone, giving plenty of value to his +1800 at DraftKings.
Rob Gronkowski Anytime Touchdown +220
Raheem Palmer: Who on this team does Brady trust more than Gronkowski?
With Brate coming into this game with a questionable tag, the opportunity is there for Gronkowski to receive some of the targets that Brate has been getting in the red zone the last few weeks. Given Brady and Gronk’s rapport, this feels mispriced.
I’ll take a shot here with FanDuel offering +220 as of Saturday.
Leon Halip/Getty Images. Pictured: Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski, Chris GodwinAny Offensive Lineman to Score a Touchdown: Yes +2000
The Favorites Pod: “I see both offenses doing something weird in the end zone,” pro bettor Simon Hunter said on The Favorites Podcast. “Andy Reid loves illusions — guys moving in weird places and all of a sudden an offensive lineman pops open in the end zone.”
At such long odds, this is obviously more of a fun prop than something you hitch your bankroll to.
Will a Bradley Pinion Punt Result in a Touchback? No -350
Raheem Palmer: I heard this one on a podcast with Gil Alexander from VSIN and found it interesting. This would fit under the bill of a bridge-jumper prop. While these props require a bigger bankroll, they often have a positive expected value. Nonetheless, you have to determine how you manage the risk vs. the reward. While your average recreation gambler wants a bigger return for a smaller risk, there are many pros who don’t mind laying a big price for something that’s almost certain to happen.
In this case, the Buccaneers have punted 55 times this year with just two touchbacks. Given the aggressiveness of Arians, it’s likely we won’t see the Bucs punt from anywhere near the 50. If the Bucs punt, it’s more likely we’d see them punt from their own territory.
Doing some math on this… 53/55 = 96.3%. If we assume that Tampa will punt three times in this game and take 96.3% to the third power, we’re looking at around 10%, which means that 90% of the time this shouldn’t end with a touchback. With this being priced at -350 — (350/(350+100)) = 77% — we’re looking at a +EV wager should be inclined to lay the heavy juice.
This is available at FanDuel as of Saturday.
Bradley Pinion Longest Punt Under 54.5 Yards
Sean Koerner: The Super Bowl is the only game each year that features a handful of punter props to bet on, and I happened to find one offering quite a bit of value.
Pinion has cleared 54.5 yards in only 7-of-18 games this season (39%). I realize that’s a small sample size and that there may be some explanation as to why his line was 2-3 yards higher than I would expect, which is why I dug a bit deeper and looked into his 2018 and 2019 seasons as well: He cleared 54.5 yards in only 8-of-32 games (25%) over that span.
That means he’s gone under this number at a 69.4% rate over the past three seasons.
I would set his line closer to 52.5 yards. Every yard you can get in this market is massive — each is worth ~6-7% of an edge in the 50-55 range. I would bet the under 54.5 down to -150 juice as well as down to 53.5 yards. FanDuel is offering the under at 54.5 (-120) as of Wednesday afternoon.
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