The Masters 2021: Why Patrick Cantlay may be the man to back with Lee Westwood, Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau tipped to come up just short

What a treat. Five months after the last Masters, we’re back for more at Augusta National.

The field at Augusta is only 88 players, including amateurs and some veteran past champions.

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While it should make this one slightly more predictable than the other three majors, there’s a been a different winner for the past eight years and plenty will fancy their chances of donning the famous Green Jacket.

But we have thrown our neck on the line and pinpointed the man we think will triumph – having studied the trends and eliminated those who history suggests will fall short.

Let’s take a look at the numbers, and find our group of players most likely to contend….

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Lee Westwood is one of Britain’s brightest hopes as he continues to chase that elusive first major.

But while his experience could produce a top-ten finish, his older legs are likely the biggest obstacle, just like they were when he was in contention at The Players earlier this year.

While Tiger Woods was 43 when he claimed his fifth Masters triumph in 2019, Westwood is 48 and no man over the age of 46 has won this tournament, with Jack Nicklaus the oldest to do it in 1986.

Writing Westwood off is admittedly quite risky, because he’s been playing great in 2021 but we think he will just fall short again.

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Augusta is a ball striking test and ten of the last 15 winners have finished the year in the top ten Strokes Gained Tee to Green.

We’ve looked at the players who finished 2020 in the Tee to Green top ten, and the ones in the top ten this season so far.

That leaves us a list of 13: Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, Sergio Garcia, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Corey Conners and Scottie Scheffler.

Interestingly, Strokes Gained Putting isn’t necessarily an indicator of success at Augusta. It’s more a case of avoiding three-putts. The PGA Tour average for three-putts is 3%, at Augusta that jumps to near 6%.

We’re taking out the guys from our list who rank poorly and fail the eye test: Garcia, Conners, Johnson, Matsuyama, Finau and McIlroy.

It must be said that Johnson has been streaky with the flat stick this season, while McIlroy’s bad form is well documented.

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Masters champions have pretty much exclusively taken several years to learn the subtleties of the course.

We’re therefore ruling out the guys with the least experience at Augusta. That removes Scheffler, Morikawa and Zalatoris.

Rahm has played great this season, but he and his wife had a baby last week. We think that’s too big a distraction, so he’s out too.

So that leaves us with three names: Thomas, Cantlay and DeChambeau.

DeChambeau hasn’t played all that well at Augusta as a pro, and although we think he’ll win a Green Jacket in the future, we feel he’s still figuring out this famous course, especially the approach shots.

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Thomas has just won The Players, so looks a great shout, but he’s had his challenges this season off the course, and is still figuring out his driver this season.

That leaves us with Cantlay.

The world number ten, he’s a guy with no weaknesses, and two top-ten finishes from four Masters outings.

DataGolf rank him as their world no. 5, and he represents great value – he’s 28/1 with some bookmakers.

The 29-year-old is in great form this season, with five top-ten finishes, including a win, 2nd and 3rd-place. He’s had terrible back problems over the years, so we wouldn’t back him in colder conditions.

With the weather set fair, we think his class will show and he’s our tip to become the 2021 Masters Champion.

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