The Hockey Diaries: Shorties Galore

2020-2021 NHL Season Record

There were five shorthanded goals last night. As a percentage of all goals scored it was not ‘galore’, however as a percentage of what you might expect from a typical 10 game sample it was definitely high. A standard expectation for a season would be between 2-3% of a team’s goals to come from shorthanded conversions. So last night’s 10% rate stuck out coming from three different games. Not really here nor there, was just an interesting anecdote as I reviewed the game data from last night’s results. Powerplays fell more or less into a typical range of expectation for that card.

I would have been a bit sour if Montreal wasn’t able to cover the puckline. They had done such a good job allowing the Oilers powerplay to have as many chances as possible with which to hit maximum frustration, and yet to not convert…that was their strategy right? Take as many penalties as possible so that McJesus and co would be their own worst enemy and give the Habs the first goal on an Edmonton powerplay this game. Brilliant. Oh and Allen too…three minutes away from a shutout when the Habs did one of their 2019/2020 characteristic last man back turnovers.

This is an interesting contrast though. Coming out of the 2020 season the Oilers had one of the best powerplays of all time. Over a 70 game season, they were converting at 30%, nearly 5% better than the second team. For further context, they were also 5% greater than the 2019 Bolts, 96′ Wings, and almost 10% better than the Oilers dynasty teams in the 80’s. So yes, in short, they were due to regress a bit. And all teams will have man-advantage showings like last night where nothing is ‘clicking’. Even Russel was hitting iron in the final minute of the game to preserve the Canadiens spread (though that was with the goalie pulled man-advantage, not powerplay). However Leon and Connor are not going to let this go on for too much longer.

I added the CLV tracker to the record. It has been some years since I bothered doing so for NHL, and no one actually asked for it… which is somewhat expected after consecutive successful seasons. However, because of the sheer enormity of potential volatility across all sports and esports since March 13^th of 2020, I think it will be an interesting and practical exercise. Keep in mind that for many following my prices are not your prices, my record is not your record. I have tried to mitigate the differential by posting the market number as frequently as possible using a handful of the best sportsbooks which offer all of the markets we are trading. It is not perfect, and therefore I encourage others to track their own.

So, from a personal aim standpoint, the objective is to raise columns 3 and 5. From an assessment perspective, it is to monitor how efficient the NHL market is on moneylines, pucklines (including reverse pucklines), and totals (including team totals), however, I won’t be including futures and player props in this exercise.

Anyone remember that great number we got on the Hawks vs. Panthers under 6.5 the other day? Look at it now. That is about an 8% difference in probability. What’s different today? Depending on when and where you took that total you might have found a better number at a book later in the day, but…short price has flipped. Well, the most obvious difference headed into today is that Bob and Subban are expected to go. But…they both put up a sub 0.90 save percentage last season while allowing over three goals a game. So. I ask again, what has changed?

Tuesday January 19th Bets:

*The picks reflect the line at the moment the writer made the play on BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our NHL odds.

PLEASE READ:

Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners

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