The Hockey Diaries: Incoming

NHL Season Record 2.0

(Will keep a pinned link to the March 7th entry going forward for all those that are not in the loop. It has the final record on the old approach.)

Another day on the feel-good run. Yesterday was a five-trade sweep that included four full-game totals and the first leg of a progression series on the Preds. Looking over the way some of those games started, it probably should have been a losing day, but hey – I’ve put up with a ridiculous streak of overtime losses, so it’s about time the hockey gods spread out their blessings!

It was another day with poor market value, and I even had lines moving against me in the majority. How many times this season has a winning not correlated at all with the closing line value. I would eyeball it at 80%. What’s worse is the number of days the opposite was true as well. That DBC column says it all really. Under the old approach, the largest cohort of wagers was beating the close and losing (~40%), and now it is not beating the close and winning (~30%)… annoying? As mentioned during the pre-March losses – just need some profit to start coming in.

Holding 5.66% and 6.54% ROI over the last 149 wagers (19 with variable staking) is still limited, but the first sustained success all season. Talking longer than four days here. Like I said when going back to the drawing board three weeks ago, I do not expect to pull back into the green on NHL this season. The aim is to find success using more targetted trades at higher odds to increase the win percentage and returns while reducing the volatility.

Through 149 bets, this has been successful. There have been about 175 games since the switch, and there are about 350 games left in the regular season. Maintaining that ROI over the remaining sample, which should qualify similar levels of opportunity, would make a successful second half of the season.

NHL totals will be posted same time as always!

March 31st Bets:

*The picks reflect the line at the moment the writer made the play on BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our NHL odds.

PLEASE READ:

Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.

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