Team Wins Over/Under Predictions for All 30 MLB Clubs

Bats are cracking and gloves are popping in Florida and Arizona these days. As the wethers warms north of those states, the return of MLB baseball is so close to being back we can taste it.

That said, there are spring training games to be played and roster decisions to be made, so we still have some unknown variables at the moment.

Nonetheless, one thing that we do know is that there are some new MLB futures odds available over at BetOnline. We’ll go over all of them before Opening Day, but let’s start with some team win total over/unders.

Odds are up for all 30 clubs, so let’s dive in and see which direction we should head across the league.

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

• Over 63.5 (-115)
• Under 63.5 (-115)

It would be surprising if the Orioles were able to avoid the basement within the AL East this season despite finishing one game ahead of the Boston Red Sox with a 25-35 record last season.

The team finally has some futures pieces now in the big leagues with names like Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, DJ Stewart and Anthony Santander providing hope while veteran Trey Mancini will return after missing all of last season while undergoing cancer treatments.

The most concerning aspect of the 2021 roster will be in the starting rotation where youngsters Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin will look to remain pillars, although it’s an awfully thin group behind No. 1 John Means.

After turning in a .417 winning percentage in the shortened 2020 season, an Over here puts them at .395 with the Under coming in at .395. Despite the improved roster picture, the AL East is once again going to be a difficult division and I think the O’s are headed for the bottom once again.

Prediction: Under 63.5 (-115)

Boston Red Sox

• Over 80.5 (-115)
• Under 80.5 (-115)

With this total, we’re essentially asked if we think the Red Sox can get back to .500 this season after finishing last season at just 24-36.

The Sox will welcome back Alex Cora after he swerved his season-long suspension in 2020 and a new-look outfield will feature Franchy Cordero, Alex Verdugo and Hunter Renfroe, from left to right, after former top prospect Andrew Benintendi was traded to the Kansas City Royals.

In addition to a potentially major bounce back from J.D. Martinez, the Red Sox will look for massive pitching improvements after getting a last-ranked 5.19 FIP from their pitching last season.

Without much done to rebuild their rotation — though they’ll get Eduardo Rodriguez back — and ace Chris Sale set to miss a big portion of the 2021 campaign while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, it’s awfully difficult to see this team getting back on the right side of .500 at this point.

Prediction: Under 80.5 (-115)

New York Yankees

• Over 95.5 (-115)
• Under 95.5 (-115)

The Yankees were upset by the Rays within the division last season and wound up just one game ahead of the Blue Jays with a 33-27 record in 2020.

We know the Bronx Bombers will mash, but the biggest looming question is how the rotation will fare behind ace Gerrit Cole. They signed a veteran reclamation project in Corey Kluber after two injury-filled seasons and traded for right-hander Jameson Taillon from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Name such as Jordan Montgomery, Domingo German and Deivi Garcia will get starts while the team will get back former ace Luis Severino back from TJ surgery himself sometime mid-season.

The bullpen looks to be strong once again but this lineup certainly has the makings of the best in the American League, so I’ll trust the offseason rotation patchwork and head over this total as the Yankees bounce back as division winners.

Prediction: Over 95.5 (-115)

Tampa Bay Rays

• Over 85.5 (-115)
• Under 85.5 (-115)

The Rays’ roster looks a whole lot different today than it did in the 2020 World Series, at least from a starting pitching perspective.

They dealt ace Blake Snell to the San Diego Padres while veteran Charlie Morton signed early in Atlanta after the Rays declined his option. They brought back former ace Chris Archer while also signing veterans Michael Wacha and Rich Hill on the open market as well. They’ll also look to ben The efit from Luis Patino, one of the top pitching prospects in the game and the prized return in the Snell deal.

offense looks nearly identical and they’ll benefit from a full season from 2020 breakout star Randy Arozarena. The bullpen is annually one of the league’s best and the late-inning trio of Diego Castillo, Peter Fairbanks and Nick Anderson returns.

Maybe the rotation isn’t as strong as it was last season, but doubting the reigning divisions champs has rarely been a good idea in the past. I’ll hit the Over.

Prediction: Over 85.5 (-115)

Toronto Blue Jays

• Over 87.5 (-120)
• Under 87.5 (-110)

Few teams were in the rumor mill more than the Blue Jays this winter as they were in on several of the big-name free agents and trade candidates.

They ended up with the top outfielder on the market in former Astro George Springer before quickly going back out and nabbing 2019 AL MVP candidate Marcus Semien, add two proven bats to one of the game’s best young offensive cores.

Robbie Ray was retained after the Jays acquired him at the deadline while the club traded for Mets left-hander Steven Matz. Add in flame-throwing top prospect Nate Pearson and veteran Ross Stripling, and ace Hyun-Jin Ryu appears to have plenty of support behind him.

Former Padres closer Kirby Yates will look to bounce back from an injury-filled 2020 season at the back end of the bullpen while veteran right-handers David Phelps and Tyler Chatwood will be first-year Jays as well.

There’s plenty of optimism surrounding the Jays this season, and I believe the club can power their way Over this total.

Prediction: Over 87.5 (-120)

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

• Over 90.5 (-130)
• Under 90.5 (+100)

The White Sox were in a position to win the division last season before a 2-8 home stretch sent them into a Wild Card series with the Oakland A’s, one the A’s won 2-1.

Despite the disappointing 2020 result, this is one of the most talented rosters in the sport, one with star-caliber talent at just about every position. They added Lance Lynn in an offseason deal with the Texas Rangers while signing the top free-agent reliever on the market in the form of former A’s closer Liam Hendriks. Top prospect Andrew Vaughn will compete for a DH spot in camp, perhaps adding more thunder to a lineup with plenty of it.

The Sox are my pick to win the Central and I believe they’ll get well over this total in the process.

Prediction: Over 90.5 (-130)

Cleveland Indians

• Over 81.5 (-125)
• Under 81.5 (-105)

The Tribe will be without a familiar face moving forward as they traded superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor to the New York Mets while long-time rotation member Carlos Carrasco was involved in the deal as well. They team also allowed veteran first baseman Carlos Santana to explore free agency before he signed with the rival Royals.

Pitching shouldn’t be a problem with reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber fronting a rotation with promising young arms in Zac Plesac, Aaron Civale and Tristan Mackenzie behind him. The true question is whether an offense that tied for 26th with a .303 wOBA last season can score enough runs to win consistently.

They signed a productive bat in Eddie Rosario and Jose Ramirez remains, but it’s difficult to see a major offensive improvement without Lindor around.

Still, the Indians were 10 games over .500 last season, and I think they can at least get over the .500 mark and this total on their pitching alone.

Prediction: Over 81.5 (-125)

Detroit Tigers

• Over 67.5 (-115)
• Under 67.5 (-115)

The basement-dwelling Tigers were superior only to the Rangers within the American League last season, and while they’ve made several moves this offseason, it’s difficult to envision them getting out of the AL Central basement.

Detroit added some starting pitching depth in right-handers Julio Teheran and Jose Urena while adding Wilson Ramos at catcher, Renato Nunez at first base, re-signing Jonathan Schoop at second, Robbie Grossman in left field and Nomar Mazara in right.

We’ll see if some of those moves can pay dividends, but the Tigers’ 5.63 team ERA last season was the worst in baseball and their .303 wOBA on offense tied the Indians for 26th.

Better days lay ahead for a Tigers team with five prospects within MLB Pipeline’s Top 50, but the losing should continue in earnest this season.

Prediction: Under 67.5 (-115)

Kansas City Royals

• Over 72.5 (-115)
• Under 72.5 (-115)

The White Sox seemingly got stronger in the offseason, but there might not be a more improved team in this division than the Royals.

They signed Santana to handle first base and some DH, traded for left fielder Benintendi, signed a center field in Michael A. Taylor and brought back starter Mike Minor. Perhaps the moves aren’t ground-breaking, but the lineup is much deeper than we’ve seen in year’s past.

Additionally, let’s not forget how good this Royals bullpen was last season. K.C. ranked eighth with a 3.84 bullpen ERA last season and ninth with a 4.02 FIP. They’ll return the key names that helped that renaissance in Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont, but also brought back a former close in Wade Davis after having success in doing the same thing with Greg Holland last season.

While I have the Indians over their total, I believe there’s a chance this Royals team can leapfrog them in 2021 while getting Over this total.

Prediction: Over 72.5 (-115)

Minnesota Twins

• Over 88.5 (-115)
• Under 88.5 (-115)

The Twins’ most important duty this offseason was to retain slugger Nelson Cruz, otherwise known as the team’s best offensive player last season. They managed to do so while also nabbing the elite glove work of Andrelton Simmons to man shortstop in 2021.

They did lose a couple of starting pitchers in Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill, and while Odorizzi has yet to sign with another club, it’s unlikely he returns to Minnesota. We’ll see what Kenta Maeda can do for an encore after a career-year in his first season with Minny in 2020 while veterans J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker will handle innings at the back of the rotation.

Plenty of attention went to the White Sox last season, and rightfully so. However, when it was all said and done it was the Twins at the top of the division with a 36-24 record. That .600 winning rate gives them 97 wins in a 162-game season, and while they might not quite get that many in 2021, I believe they’ll still get over this total.

Prediction: Over 88.5 (-115)

AL West

Houston Astros

• Over 87.5 (-115)
• Under 87.5 (-115)

The Astros predictably regressed without their usual elite starting pitching in 2020 while the offense scuffled more than expected to be sure. It led to a sub-.500 regular-season record, but looked far more like themselves while marching their way to Game 7 of the ALCS.

In doing so, pitchers like Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy and Christian Javier delivered fantastic results as the new No. 3, 4 and 5 starters for a rotation that will once again be without Justin Verlander thanks to Tommy John surgery.

They added Pedro Baez to help a bullpen that was ravaged with injuries last season while Ryne Stanek and Steve Cishek were acquired to provide depth.

Of course, they lost Springer in free agency, but were able to retain Michael Brantley and the offense should be able to bounce back after Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa delivered down seasons in 2020. Keep in mind it’s an offense that should also get 2019 Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez back after knew injuries cost him almost all of last season.

Some might be down on these Astros without Springer, but I believe the pitching and offense is good enough to get them Over this total.

Prediction: Over 87.5 (-115)

Los Angeles Angels

• Over 82.5 (-120)
• Under 82.5 (-110)

It was another season of playoff-less baseball for first-ballot Hall of Famer Mike Trout in 2020 as the clock continues to tick on his prime years as the best player in baseball.

A team that tied for 25th with a 5.09 team ERA last season needed to address that need first and foremost. They acquired right-hander Alex Cobb in a trade with the Orioles while adding a reliable left-hander in Jose Quintana on the open market. They also managed to bolster their bullpen in a big way by trading for Reds closer Raisel Iglesias.

Another Iglesias — Jose — was added to take over at short with Simmons a free agent, and if getting an elite glove to replace that of Simmons, getting Iglesias is about as good as you can do in that department.

They’ll look for Dexter Fowler to produce in right while top prospect Jo Adell sharpens his tools after a disappointing debut, but this Angels offense is a good one and the least of their concerns entering the season.

I certainly believe this is a .500 or better club, so I’ll hit another Over here.

Prediction: Over 82.5 (-120)

Oakland A’s

• Over 86.5 (-120)
• Under 86.5 (-110)

The A’s cruised to an AL West title last season as the only team to finish above the .500 mark at 36-24.

Losing the best reliever in the game in Hendriks doesn’t help, but they bounced back to sign Trevor Rosenthal on the heels of a major bounce back season that saw him work to a 1.90 ERA/2.22 FIP between the Royals and Padres.

A healthy return of Matt Chapman will help while a player in Matt Olson who endured a down 2020 season should be able to bring much more to the table this time around. It’s doubtful that Chris Bassitt repeats his career-year, but the A’s have a lengthy list of quality starting pitching options with a couple of big-time youngsters in Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk.

We’re on a long stretch of Overs, but it’s difficult to make a strong case for the A’s to finish Under this total.

Prediction: Over 86.5 (-120)

Seattle Mariners

• Over 71.5 (-115)
• Under 71.5 (-115)

The Mariners aren’t without exciting young talent with reigning AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis along with one of the best prospects in baseball in outfielder Jarred Kelenic. Prospect Taylor Trammell is also on his way.

Still, the offense is largely the same group that ranked 28th with a .298 wOBA while the 5.11 xFIP from their pitching staff was the second-worst mark in baseball. Not a whole lot has changed on the pitching front, although they did bring back the oft-injured James Paxton in free agency.

Their expected .417 winning percentage from last season would give them 68 wins in a full season. It’s a number fairly in line with this total, but I believe both the Astros and Angels will be better teams this season, so I’ll end my streak of Over and head Under the 71.5 total in Seattle.

Prediction: Under 71.5 (-115)

Texas Rangers

• Over 67.5 (-115)
• Under 67.5 (-115)

Not much went right for the Rangers in 2020 as their 22-38 record ranked last in the AL while their 21-39 expected record was also the worst in the junior circuit.

They took a shot on former Rockies All-Star David Dahl and added slugger Khris Davis coming off a down season in a trade with the A’s that saw Elvis Andrus head the other way. Former Ray Nate Lowe was acquired to take over first-base duties.

The offense could be palatable, but the pitching isn’t a major concern coming off a 29th-ranked 5.00 xFIP from last season, and was with their ace Lance Lynn on board.

They will get a promising young arm in Dane Dunning — the return for Lynn — and they also took a flier on former Braves All-Star Mike Foltynewicz. Still, there isn’t much in this rotation to hang your hat on as veteran Kyle Gibson — now the ace — endured major struggles in his first season with the Rangers in 2020.

I’m not seeing enough to get them Over this total.

Prediction: Under 67.5 (-115)

NL East

Atlanta Braves

• Over 92.5 (-130)
• Under 92.5 (+100)

The two-time reigning NL East champs had the L.A. Dodgers on the ropes in the NLCS before Los Angeles stormed back to advance, and of course, win the World Series.

Atlanta retained a key cog from an offense that ranked first in baseball with a .355 wOBA in the form of slugger Marcel Ozuna on the heels of a career-year that saw him litter the offensive leaderboards. Aside from letting Adam Duvall test the market before adding Jake Lamb late in the winter, the Braves are certainly in great shape offensively as much of their offense from 2020 returns.

After watching their rotation get decimated by injuries last season, there was a clear focus early in the offseason in starting pitching. The Braves quickly signed Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly, getting their shopping out of the way early. They’ll get Mike Soroka back after he went down with an Achilles’ Tear early in the 2020 campaign while Max Fried will be relied upon heavily at the top of the rotation. Prospect Ian Anderson debuted with authority last season and he’ll be leaned on to repeat his success this time around.

Their .583 winning percentage from last season puts them at 94 wins in a normal year. That said, the starting pitching will be better this season and the offense will dominate again. Give me the Over.

Prediction: Over 92.5 (-130)

Miami Marlins

• Over 71.5 (-115)
• Under 71.5 (-115)

The Marlins shocked their way to the expanded playoffs last season with a 31-29 record. However, they also posted a -41 run differential that was by far the worst in the division and earned them a 26-34 expected record as a result.

The pitching is both young and excellent. Sixto Sanchez was excellent in his highly-anticipated MLB debut while fellow young arms in Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Trevor Rogers give this club hope for the future.

The two main areas of concern will be the offense and bullpen. They added Duvall from the Braves, but it’s an offense that posted just a .308 wOBA, and while that tied for 21st, it was just five points ahead of the 27th spot. They’ll also get a full season out of center fielder Starling Marte as well.

The bullpen will need to be much better after finishing 30th with a 5.65 FIP, but also went to work and added Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro, John Curtiss and Adam Cimber in attempts to bolster that group.

I’ll look for their pitching to power them Over a low total.

Prediction: Over 71.5 (-115)

New York Mets

• Over 89.5 (-130)
• Under 89.5 (+100)

The Mets were one of those teams that seemed to be in the news all offseason long. New owner Steve Cohen made it clear from the get-go that he would be aggressive in bringing winning baseball back to the franchise.

Cohen traded for Lindor, signed the second-best catcher on the market in James McCann, signed Taijuan Walker to bolster the rotation, added Trevor May as a late-inning power arm as well as lefty specialist Aaron Loup.

That bullpen now has the makings of one of the best in the league when we add in closer Edwin Diaz, Miguel Castro, Dellin Betances and Jeurys Familia. Keep in mind the offense ranked third with a .347 wOBA last season and certainly got better on paper with the Lindor deal.

Jacob deGrom remains arguably the best pitcher in baseball and fellow right-hander Marcus Stroman accepted the team’s one-year qualifying offer. Watch out once Noah Syndergaard returns from Tommy John surgery mid-season.

Add it up and the team should challenge for a division title will getting Over his total.

Prediction: Over 89.5

Philadelphia Phillies

• Over 81.5 (-115)
• Under 81.5 (-115)

The Phillies have been among the most disappointing teams in baseball over the last couple of seasons since going out and spending big on Bryce Harper.

Their biggest offseason goal was to bring back the best overall catcher in baseball in J.T. Realmuto and they did just that. They also re-signed shortstop Didi Gregorius and they’ll look for a healthy return of slugger Rhys Hoskins.

The biggest question is on the pitching side of things. They tied for fifth with a 3.75 starters FIP last season, but is Zack Wheeler going to repeat his 2.92 ERA? What about Zach Eflin and his 3.97 ERA/3.39 FIP? The volatile Vince Velasquez is penciled in as the fourth starter with Matt Moore — who pitched in Japan last season — is now their fifth starter with names like Chase Anderson and Ivan Nova signed for depth. Prospect Spencer Howard will get his reps as well after debuting last season, but when looking around the division, it’s certainly reasonable to say the Phillies have the worst rotation within the East.

They added Archie Bradley, Tony Watson and Brandon Kintzler to the league’s worst bullpen from last season, but a bounce back is far from certain.

Someone has to go Under the total in this division, and the Phillies are the best bet.

Prediction: Under 81.5 (-115)

Washington Nationals

• Over 84.5 (-115)
• Under 84.5 (-115)

The biggest question for the Nationals is whether their elite rotation can stay healthy.

Stephen Strasburg made just two starts before hand numbness cost him almost the entire season while injuries have tinkered with Max Scherzer with his 3.74 ERA the worst number he’s posted since the 2011 season.

If those two can avoid injuries, the Nationals have a shot. They also added Jon Lester as their fourth starter while offensive upgrades were attempted with a trade for Josh Bell and the signing of Kyle Schwarber.

Adding Brad Hand and Jeremy Jeffress should be able to help a bullpen that has struggled over the last couple of seasons, but bullpens are often the most volatile aspect of an MLB roster.

Even if Strasburg comes back healthy, he won’t be able to handle a major workload after pitching just five innings last season and it’s quite possible that peak Scherzer is gone for good now that back issues have crept into his career.

I’ll head Under the total here as well.

Prediction: Under 84.5 (-115)

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

• Over 79.5 (-115)
• Under 79.5 (-115)

There were plenty of rumors swirling around the Cubs this offseason, but for the most part the Yu Darvish trade to the Padres was the lone major move the club made this winter.

Darvish’s Cy Young-caliber 2020 should be missed, and there weren’t exactly ground-breaking replacements added in Jake Arrieta and Trevor Williams while Zach Davies came to Chicago in the Darvish deal.

The offense is largely unchanged with Kris Bryant and Javier Baez remaining with the club for the time being, and while Kyle Schwarber signed in Washington, the Cubs added another righty-masher in former Dodger Joc Pederson. It’s certainly a defensive upgrade in left at the very least.

They were wise to retain Ryan Tepera to a bullpen that was largely underrated, one that ranked third with a 4.06 xFIP while they were excellent after a disastrous first couple weeks of the season.

The starting pitching might not be as good, but I like the Cubs to get over the .500, at least, in a division up for grabs.

Prediction: Over 79.5 (-115)

Cincinnati Reds

• Over 82.5 (-130)
• Under 82.5 (+100)

The Reds were another team rumored to be considering bold moves as rumors swirled around the futures of Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo in Cincinnati, but as it turns out the predictable departure of Trevor Bauer in free agency was the biggest news out of Cincy.

Anthony DeSclafani also departed on the open market, but with Gray and Castillo at the top and some depth in Tyler Mahle, Wade Miley, Michael Lorenzen and Tejay Antone, among others, should give the Reds a workable rotation.

With the departure of Freddy Galvis, there is currently a gaping hole at the shortstop position, one that features Kyle Farmer and Jose Garcia at the top of the depth chart. Even with his glove still one of the best in the business, Joey Votto is well past his prime while they are without an outfielder projected for more than 1.5 fWAR this season.

With closer Raisel Iglesias being dealt to the Angels and another late-inning arm in Archie Bradley signing elsewhere in free agency, the bullpen doesn’t look to be in great shape, either..

Easy decision for me to go Under here, especially at this value.

Prediction: Under 82.5 (+100)

Milwaukee Brewers

• Over 82.5 (-130)
• Under 82.5 (+100)

The Brewers are an interesting case. On the surface, it doesn’t appear like a playoff-caliber club, but when you carefully consider the parts, there could be something to work with here.

The bullpen is one of the best in baseball after they ranked first in the league with a 3.72 xFIP last season. The late-inning duo of 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Devin Williams and left-handed closer Josh Hader is just stupid good.

They added second basemen Kolten Wong in free agency and added to their infield depth by bringing back Travis Shaw. Keep in mind they’ll also get Lorenzo Cain back in center field after he opted out of the 2020 season while former MVP Christian Yelich could be primed for a major bounce back after scuffling through the shortened 2020 campaign.

They have an excellent duo atop their rotation in Brandon Workman and Corbin Burnes while they retained ground-ball specialist Brett Anderson as well. Josh Lindblom and Adrian Houser are fine No. 3 and 4 options as well.

There is a case to be made that the Brewers could be sneaky 2021 contenders, so I’ll head Over this total.

Prediction: Over 82.5 (-130)

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Over 59.5 (-115)
• Under 59.5 (-115)

The Pirates’ teardown is now complete after the team traded the likes of Josh Bell, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon this winter.

They were the worst team in baseball last season even with those pieces in place, posting a .317 winning percentage that equates to 51 wins in a 162-game campaign.

There is plenty of hype surrounding 24-year-old Ke’Bryan Hayes after a successful debut last season, but there is just so little to work with in all three departments of the roster. The rotation could turn into one that out-produces expectations, but there isn’t much to like here at all while it would be surprising to see the Pirates finish anywhere but last in all of baseball this season.

Prediction: Under 59.5 (-115)

St. Louis Cardinals

• Over 87.5 (-135)
• Under 87.5 (+105)

Of course, the biggest news out of St. Louis this winter was the trade that brought disgruntled Colorado Rockies superstar Nolan Arenado on board. However, is this an overrated move?

It didn’t cost them much of anything, and his glove at third base is elite, but we should also consider that Arenado has posted an .852 OPS and 108 wRC+ for his career on the road compared to a .996 OPS and 144 wRC+ at Coors Field. The road production is still of high quality, but don’t be surprised if his bat doesn’t live up to the hype at Busch Stadium in 2021.

The offensive supporting cast is very good, however, and the pitching is strong after the Cards posted a ninth-ranked 3.92 team ERA in a season where ace Jack Flaherty posted a 4.91 mark.

It’s a high total, but it’s also rare to see a division won by a team with fewer than 90 wins. I’ll see if the Cards can get there.

Prediction: Over 87.5 (-135)

NL West

Arizona D-backs

• Over 75.5 (-115)
• Under 75.5 (-115)

The D-backs certainly endured their struggles last season

Their offense struggled their way to a .306 wOBA that tied for 24th a season ago while the first year outside of San Francisco was an outright disaster for Madison Bumgarner. The starting pitching largely scuffled behind breakout star Zac Gallen.

The bullpen saw some potential upgrades this winter with the additions of Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard, Chris Devenski and Ryan Buchter, but little was done elsewhere outside the addition of veteran Asdrubal Cabrera who will see time as a utility infielder.

I could see an offensive rebound with too many down seasons throughout the lineup, but I’m not sure there’s enough here to warrant going over this total.

Prediction: Under 75.5

Colorado Rockies

• Over 63.5 (-115)
• Under 63.5 (-115)

It could be a long 2021 season in Colorado.

Following the departure of Arenado, the trending topic in Denver throughout the season will be the future of free-agent-to-be Trevor Story. It’s difficult to see Story wanting to re-sign in Colorado at this point, so I’d venture a guess and say a trade is likely.

Their offense plummeted in 2020, but their pitching was brutalized to the tune of a 5.59 ERA/5.14 FIP. The problem is that neither area got any sort of notable upgrades while it was certainly a questionable move not to tender a player in David Dahl who slashed .302/.353/.524 with a 110 wRC+ in 2019 and is still just 26 years old.

This is certainly a franchise on the decline, and without much in terms of pitching and a weak offense — one that could get even weaker with a Story trade — and I’m all over the Under on this one.

Prediction: Under 63.5 (-115)

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Over 103.5 (-115)
• Under 103.5 (-115)

The rich got richer this offseason as the Dodgers landed the top free-agent starting pitching option in the form of Trevor Bauer. The money it took to lure a player with a career 3.90 ERA and a 4.48 mark as recently as 2019 is suspect, but I suppose that’s a question for a different day.

The 2020 NL Cy Young Award winner gives the Dodgers a ridiculous rotation that also features Clayton, Kershaw, Walker Buehler, David Price and Julio Urias with Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin sure to get their reps as well.

With Mookie Betts in tow, the Dodgers led baseball with 118 home runs and a .227 ISO a season ago while only the Braves out-produced their .350 wOBA.

They retained a key bullpen arm in Blake Treinen and while Pedro Baez went to the Astros, Jake McGee to the Giants and Dylan Floro to the Marlins, the bullpen should once again be among the best in the game.

Whether or not they can hit by far the highest total on the board remains to be seen, but I’m not exactly willing to bet against them, either.

Prediction: Over 103.5 (-115)

San Diego Padres

• Over 95.5 (-115)
• Under 95.5 (-115)

You might have heard about the Padres making some moves this winter.

They traded for Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, two ace-caliber arms that slot in alongside the likes of Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack. A.J. Preller also dealt for Joe Musgrove to give the Padres a rotation that just might rival the Dodgers, although that’s going to be tough to accomplish.

Their offense is about as dynamic as it gets. They ranked fourth with 94 home runs and first with 55 stolen bases last season, turning in the league’s fifth-ranked 115 wRC+ in the process.

The infield was already loaded before the Padres went out and signed the top overseas free-agent on the board in Ha-seong Kim, a player that is going to see action at at least three infield positions and possibly some work in left field as well. They also retained Jurickson Profar coming off a productive 2020 campaign.

If you believe the Padres are remotely close to the Dodgers, then the Over needs to be the bet.

Prediction: Over 95.5 (-115)

San Francisco Giants

• Over 75.5 (-115)
• Under 75.5 (-115)

The Giants are in over their heads within the same division as the Dodgers and Padres, but this could be a sneaky-good club.

They’ll get catcher Buster Posey back after he sat out the 2020 season while they added to the starting rotation with the likes of Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood with Aaron Sanchez a wild card in the mix. They’re not earth-shattering upgrades, but along with Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto this could certainly be a serviceable rotation.

Adding McGee was key to improving a rotation that ranked 22nd with a 4.78 FIP, although they managed to get away with a 12th-ranked 4.24 ERA.

The Giants are going to be in tough with the Dodgers and Padres, but I think they’re a better team than most will give them credit for, so I’ll head for the Over on this one.

Prediction: Over 75.5 (-115)