Tampa Bay Underdogs 2021 – Super Bowl LV

Living in the Tampa Bay Area and covering the Buccaneers for the last three seasons, I have had a chance to watch the franchise grow under Bruce Arians, who now finishes his second season by directing the Buccaneers’ ship straight into the waters of Super Bowl LXV in a rematch against the Kansas City Chiefs. According to the online sportsbooks, The Bucs are a 3-point underdogs, even in their home stadium.

Pure joy is Lavonte David and the @Buccaneers realizing they’re going to the Super Bowl. #GoBucs (via @NFLFilms)

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Here are 10 reasons to bet on the underdog Bucs in what is sure to be a scintillating Super Bowl as the O/U now stands at 56.5 points.

1. Tom Brady

Ok, so this is kind of elementary, but Tom Brady right now goes down as the top quarterback in NFL history.

This is his tenth Super Bowl in the 55. He has a 6-3 record and hasn’t slowed down at age 43, sans for the two regular-season losses to the Saints that were before the Buccaneers hit another gear, and he did return those losses by engineering a 30-20 win in the Mercedes Benz SuperDome in the NFC Divisional Playoffs.

That experience is unparalleled and with his credentials, betting on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl is an intelligent endeavor.

2. Offensive Options

The Buccaneers feature a plethora of offensive weapons against a Kansas City pass defense that does yield just 236 yards per game (14th in the NFL).

Brady threw for 345 yards and was outgunned by Mahomes (463), but his weapons were there in the passing game and making plays after fighting back from trailing Kansas City, 17-0, after the first quarter. Mike Evans is a huge matchup problem for the Chiefs as he has averaged 17.7 yards per catch in the playoffs while Chris Godwin checks in with 14 catches for 223 yards. Evans and Godwin are as good of a 1-2 punch at wide receiver as there is in the NFL.

Chiefs Backup Tackles vs. The Buccaneers Outside Pass Rush

Kansas City’s Pro Bowl offensive tackle Eric Fisher tore his Achilles tendon in the AFC Championship conquest of the Buffalo Bills. With that, think about this. There is only one Chiefs starter on the offensive line who is playing his normal position. Let’s review.

That said, keep in mind of Mahomes’ greatness in Week12. Factor in Lavonte David and Devin White were two of just five players in the NFL this season with 100-or-more tackles and at least 10 tackles for loss. Both of these linebackers are so active and so through in their gaps that they will once again challenge the Chiefs’ offensive front and potentially get to Mahomes with discipline in their blitz and rush schemes.

4. Home Field Advantage

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the first team in NFL history to play at home in the 55 years of the Super Bowl. That type of home-field advantage can be huge in any game, especially when figuring out the wind patterns that can kick up in Raymond James Stadium, the feel of the turf, or just aesthetics.

Besides, how about being able to sleep in your home bed, go through your own routines, and then getting to the stadium on game day and seeing the same environment that you see in eight games in a season. It is a huge psychological advantage and one definitely considering if you are going to bet on the Buccaneers to beat the Chiefs on Sunday.

5. Run the Football First

Bruce Arians says that he wants to run the football first. So that is hard to believe when you look at how the Buccaneers throw the football down the field and try to make plays in chunks in the passing game. Of course, think back a year, and he was all about this even with Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback.

He never wavered from what Arians wanted from the rushing attack throughout the season. Jones had four 100-yards plus games this season, tying Doug Martin for that number as he hit it in 2015. His biggest game came back in week 10 when he rushed for 192 yards on 23 carries as he hit a 98-yard touchdown run in the 46-23 win.

Kansas City is 21st in the NFL against the run with 122 rushing yards allowed per game, but the Bucs ran for only 75 yards in that game.

Again, they were down 17-0 after one quarter and 27-10 after three, so Tampa Bay had to throw their game plan out the window and turn to Brady and the aerial show.

6. Bucs’ Kicking Game is a Plus

While Tampa Bay kicker Ryan Succop and Chiefs’ kicker Harrison Butker are almost a push, the stat to watch in the kicking game is allowed returned. This is where punter Bradley Pinion handling the kickoffs for the Buccaneers gives them the advantage.

Pinion handled 100 kickoffs and processed 85 touchbacks. This is a huge stat when who flip to Butker, who recorded only 72 touchbacks in 95 kickoffs for 76 percent. The speedy Mercole Hardman and Byron Pringle combined for 19 of Kansas CIty’s 32 kickoff returner, where they averaged a combined 26 yards per return.

7. Second Wind

The 27-24 Chiefs win in the regular season over the Buccaneers was also played at Raymond James Stadium, where Kansas City streaked to a 17-0 first-quarter lead behind the play of quarterback Patrick Mahomes and pass-catching dynamo Tyreek Hill, who had touchdown catches of 75, 44, and 20 yards from Mahomes as he rolled up 13 catches for 269 yards.

After the first quarter, the Buccaneers got control of the game and actually outplayed Kansas City throughout the final three quarters. After Tom Brady threw two third-quarter interceptions and the Buccaneers’ defense held at the end of both of those, Brady engineered two fourth-quarter touchdowns drives of 8-plays and 75 yards and 10 plays and 51 yards. He hit Mike Evans on touchdown passes of 31 and seven yards to cap those drives as the Bucs finally fell short.

Brady passed for 345 yards, and three scores after Tampa Bay immediately had to abort the run game, which took Ronald Jones’ potential away vs. a Chiefs defense that was susceptible to the run all season.

8. Playmaking Potential Secondary

Tampa Bay has a young secondary, but this group of players have developed a swagger and tons of pride in a short period of time. This group of ball hawks is led on the corners by Carlton Davis, Jr., and Sean Murphy-Bunting as Davis was primarily assigned to Hill early in that loss.

Hill is a freak, no doubt about it, but Davis was targeted 221 times on the season, and quarterbacks completed only 54.8 percent of those passes, eighth in the NFL. Davis also defended 37 passes in 1,829 snaps to lead the NFL.

Murphy-Bunting has been hot so far as he has set the Buccaneers’ playoff record for interceptions in a single postseason with three after having only one pick in the regular season.

Safeties Antoine Winfield, Jr., and Jordan Whitehead are both listed as questionable for the Super Bowl; however, since we are a week away, it stands to reason that both will play, and both will contribute. Winfield has had a stellar rookie season as he is third on the team in tackles with 91 with three sacks and an interception. Whitehead was fourth in tackles with 68.

The starting secondary is third, fourth, fifth (Davis), and sixth (Murphy-Bunting) on the team in tackles as they get their hands on lots of balls in defending passes. Jamel Dean and Mike Edwards also figure into the playmaking secondary, which will be at it’s best in Bucs-Chiefs, Round 2.

9. X-Factor for the Buccaneers?

Wide receiver Scotty Miller came into the fold two years ago. With his small stature and speed, he has become a player that is almost forgotten among the incredible talent in the Buccaneers’ wide receiver room.

Miller proved this at the end of the NFC Championship game when he blew my Green Bay cornerback Kevin King in the waning moments of the first half as it put the Packers on their heels with his 39-yard touchdown reception.

Miller is potentially going to see more snaps with Antonio Brown out of the lineup. Tom Brady can, of course, throw in the smaller windows, which complement Miller, so the possibility for him to have some type of impact in the game becomes more likely instead of less likely.

He caught 33 passes this season for 501 yards and three touchdowns.

10. “No Risk It, No Biscuit”

Bruce Arians is a coach with swag and style that players love to play for and assistant coaches love to coach for. Arians told the Tampa Bay media when he was hired that he was in town to not only win and win championships.

He coined “No risk it, no biscuit” when he was head coach the Arizona Cardinals that encourages a swashbuckling style that takes chances down the field. The phrase’s latest definition came with the pass play to Miller with 27 seconds left in the first half last week, which gave the Bucs a 21-10 halftime lead, which forced the Packers to play catch up for the rest of the rest of the 31-26 Buccaneers win.

The phrase took on another meaning when he and GM Jason Licht went and signed Tom Brady as a free agent for two years in giving him $25 million per year.

Picking the Buccaneers to win as 3-point underdogs probably undersells “no risk it, no biscuit” because this team is an easy pick to win the Super Bowl, and that is why it is easy to back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to knock off the Kansas City Chiefs for their second Super Bowl Championship.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!