Suns vs. Bucks NBA Finals Game 4: Phoenix Rising

The Phoenix Suns couldn’t beat the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 3, but we’re still putting them in our NBA picks for Wednesday’s Game 4.

Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Wednesday, July 14, 2021 – 09:00 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum

Never abandon a good gimmick. The Phoenix Suns are the sharp side in the 2020-21 NBA Finals; we had them for Games 1 and 2, which Phoenix won SU and ATS, and we would have put them in our NBA picks for Game 3, too. Just as well the home office was closed that day; the Milwaukee Bucks won 120-100 as 4.5-point home faves. It was easily their best performance of this series. Maybe they’ll take the title after all.

We’re not betting on it. Neither are the wiseguys, at least according to the early consensus reports, which at press time show 90 percent of bettors choosing the Suns for Game 4 this Wednesday night. Granted, Phoenix opened at +3.5 on the NBA odds board before moving to +4.5 on Monday, so maybe Milwaukee did catch some sharp money – or maybe the online sportsbooks are front-running this bad boy, in anticipation of all that public money coming in on the favorites.

Two-Point Buck

We’ll leave it up to you to decide. In the meantime, the projections at FiveThirtyEight have the Bucks winning Wednesday’s contest by two points, which leaves ample room for us to slide in a healthy bet at Phoenix +4.5. Let’s be good journalists and call in a second source, though; Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today ran the numbers, and his most generous results for Milwaukee have them ahead by 2.45 points, giving extra weight to their Game 3 performance.

We’re not re-inventing the wheel here. The Suns (65-26 SU, 55-34-2 ATS including the playoffs) have been printing money this year, while the Bucks (59-33 SU, 43-49 ATS) are still in the red. Why is this happening? Partly because Phoenix went the previous decade without reaching the postseason, burning through five different head coaches and three interim coaches. The betting public still hasn’t caught up to how good the Suns are now that Chris Paul is on board, and young players like Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges are entering their primes.

Paul +Ayton > Antetokounmpo + Teague

Then you have the long shadow that two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo casts over this series. Antetokounmpo is the best player on either side by a wide margin, and the NBA is a superstar-driven league. But the Suns are greater than the sum of their parts. All of their regular rotation players are contributing, while the Bucks have leaned more than they would have liked on back-up guards Jeff Teague (minus-1.3 BPM at Basketball Reference) and Bryn Forbes (minus-1.4 BPM), thanks to the season-ending foot injury suffered by Donte DiVincenzo (minus-0.1 BPM).

Finally, we can’t wrap things up without mentioning that Devin Booker shot 3-for-14 in Game 3, including 1-for-7 on his trey attempts. And that Phoenix as a team shot 9-for-31 (29 percent) from downtown. A little positive regression should help Booker and the Suns get back on top. Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.

NBA Pick: Suns +4.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Suns +4.5 (–108)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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