Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: West Brom vs. Newcastle (March 7)

West Brom vs. Newcastle Odds

West Brom vs. Newcastle doesn’t figure to be aesthetically pleasing, but there is plenty at stake. West Brom are in 19th place, nine points from safety, while Newcastle are hovering just above the relegation zone in 17th, three points ahead of Fulham.

A win would be huge for either club. Here’s a closer look at the two teams, followed by a prediction.

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West Brom

West Brom have a long way to go if they’re going to avoid the drop this season. They’ve played 27 matches and have won just three of them, a league low.

With just 17 points, they are ahead of only last-place Sheffield United (14). And in terms of the underlying numbers, West Brom are by far the worst team in the league. Their xG (expected goal) differential is -27.4 according to FBRef.com. The next-lowest differential is -17.6, owned by Crystal Palace.

West Brom are facing a relatively quick turnaround from their midweek match, a 1-0 loss to Everton on Thursday. That game was actually about even in terms of the stats, though. Both teams had 11 shots, and Everton just edged it in terms of xG, 1.1 to 1.0.

Prior to that was West Brom’s third win of the season, 1-0 over Brighton last Saturday. But that result was a very fortunate one, given that Brighton failed to convert two penalties and West Brom generated just six shots and 0.5 xG.

Newcastle

Newcastle have played one match fewer than West Brom, and have nine more points, but they’re still in some danger of dropping down to the Championship next season, especially given the improved form of 18th-place Fulham.

In terms of the underlying numbers, Newcastle are about where they should be. They entered the weekend 16th in xG differential at -12.1, better only than West Brom and Crystal Palace as mentioned above, plus Sheffield United (-16.7) and Burnley (-14.9).

Newcastle will be better rested, having been off during the week. And they are coming off a 1-1 draw against Wolves in which they actually outshot their opponents 19-14 and topped them in terms of xG, 1.5 to 1.0.

The problem is, they lost both Miguel Almiron and Allan Saint-Maximin to injuries in that match. And they were already missing Callum Wilson. So now Newcastle must go without arguably their top three offensive players.

Wilson, Almiron and Saint-Maximin have scored 16 of Newcastle’s 27 league goals this season. No one else has scored more than two.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

Both teams desperately need the points. But both teams will probably have a hard time scoring. West Brom have just 20 goals in 27 matches. Newcastle have 27 but are missing the scorers of most of them.

Newcastle won the first meeting 2-1 back in mid-December, but the shots were practically even, and Almiron scored one of his team’s two goals.

I don’t see much difference between these two teams, given Newcastle’s injury crisis. So I’ll go with the draw, which pays better than picking either side.

Pick: Draw (+225)

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