Sunday Major League Soccer Betting Odds, Preview & Picks: Seattle vs. Los Angeles FC (May 16)

Seattle vs. LAFC Odds

Seattle and LAFC meet for the second time in as many months on Sunday night in the Pacific Northwest to wrap up the Week 5 MLS slate, this time with potentially more star power.

The Sounders’ Nicolas Lodeiro, and LAFC’s Diego Rossi and Carlos Vela all missed a 1-1 draw back at Bank of California Stadium in Week 2.

Rossi has since returned to LAFC’s starting XI, and the expectation is for Vela to at least be available to make his second appearance of the season in Seattle.

If Lodeiro also returns from knee pain that has him day-to-day and has limited him to one appearance, there could be two former MLS MVPs and two former Golden Boot winners on the field together.

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Seattle Took a Hit Losing Goalkeeper Stefan Frei

Seattle has been almost perfect — two points dropped previously to LAFC is the Sounders’ only blemish to date.

But they rode their luck and their fitness in their most recent result, a 1-0 win in San Jose in which they scored on their only shot on goal, a first-half thunderbolt from Cristian Roldan.

Seattle also lost longtime starting goalkeeper Stefan Frei for 4-6 weeks with a knee sprain suffered on a scary looking tumble in second-half stoppage time.

That could be a blow to a defense that has conceded only twice, aided by an improved chemistry among center backs Yeimar Gomez Andrade, Xavier Arreaga and Shane O’Neill, and a monster effort from defensive midfielder Joao Paulo. 

In his second season in MLS, Paulo entered the weekend leading MLS in tackles attempted (24) and tied for first in tackles completed (17). As a team, the Sounders entered the weekend first in clearances and tackles in the defensive third, and second in overall tackles, tackles won and interceptions.

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LAFC is Trending Up with Improving Health

Manager Bob Bradley’s LAFC side hasn’t won since defeating expansion Austin FC 2-0 on opening weekend. That’s understandable after playing all but 21 minutes without Vela, who had the single most productive offensive season in MLS history in 2019.

But Rossi’s reintroduction two weeks ago clearly added attacking dynamism, even if it hasn’t been reflected in the final results.

The Uruguayan has scored once and has generated 1.2 expected goals (xG), according to StatsBomb, tied for tops on the squad despite playing in only half of his side’s matches. As a team, LAFC has outproduced its opponents by 1.3 xG in its last two matches, with only a draw against Houston and loss to the LA Galaxy to show for it.

Vela will likely be limited to a late cameo if he plays after a month out with a quad issue. Even that could lend some needed confidence to a squad that is playing better than the standings show.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Seattle has met every challenge so far, which includes three games against opposition that reached the 2020 playoffs.

But this is the Sounders’ first time playing three games in an eight-day stretch. They expended plenty of energy defending their one-goal lead in San Jose on Wednesday night, and their injury list is growing.

It’s never a comfortable thing to bet against the Sounders — I’ve done it twice this season and lost both — but LAFC may be catching them at the right time, even on the road.

You might wait for the team sheets to confirm Vela is on Bradley’s bench. If he is, LAFC has more talent to change the game late than Seattle, certainly enough to take them to win at +195, odds that imply a 34% chance of victory.

Pick: LAFC ML (+195).

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