St. Bonaventure vs. VCU Odds

The Atlantic 10 Conference never ceases to entertain.

Tonight, there’s a defensive slugfest in Richmond. The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are traveling to face the VCU Rams, and both teams have ascended to the top of the conference through stifling defense.

The Bonnies are first in the conference at 8-2 while VCU is just a half-game back at 7-2. Given the Atlantic 10 might get only one bid to the NCAA Tournament in March, this game could prove pivotal to deciding which team gets to go dancing.

For the Bonnies and Rams, it’s a must-win game. For us, it’s a perfect spot to target the total.

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Two Defensive Monsters

The Rams and Bonnies are second and third in the conference in defensive efficiency, respectively, per KenPom. These two teams pride themselves on not letting the other team score.

VCU has been wildly impressive on the defensive end. It’s top-15 in the country in defensive efficiency, and it’s top-five in turnover percentage, block percentage and steal percentage.

Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure has been equally as effective. It boasts a defensive effective field goal percentage of just 46.4%, which is second in the conference and 37th in the nation.

Watching St. Bonaventure play against Saint Louis, I was very impressed with how ferocious its defense is. Everyone on the court swarms to the ball, the way it traps is remarkable and the team is elite at rebounding. St. Bonaventure is a menace on that side of the court.

However, St. Bonaventure lost to Saint Louis because of its offense. No matter how many successful defensive possessions the Bonnies had, Mark Schmidt’s team faced an immovable lid over the basket.

Tonight, against VCU, I expect the same thing to happen to St. Bonaventure again.

The Rams just defeated Dayton for their fourth straight win. Additionally, in its two home wins, VCU allowed just 43 points against Dayton and 62 against La Salle. Again, VCU has been wildly impressive on the defensive end.

But both teams are defensive monsters. Given that this game decides first place in the conference, and both teams are going to play defense first, I’m expecting a low-scoring affair tonight.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Given the defensive prowess of both teams, my first reaction is to bet the under. The good news is that the betting trends reinforce this play.

Looking at VCU:

• The under is 11-7 in VCU’s games this season.
• The under is 4-1 in VCU’s last five games.
• The under is 5-2 in VCU’s home games this season.

For St. Bonaventure:

• The under is 8-4 in St. Bonaventure’s games this season.
• The under is 3-1-1 in St. Bonaventure’s last five games.
• The under is 5-0 in St. Bonaventure’s road games this season.

And, obviously, the under is 3-0 this season when St. Bonaventure is a road underdog, and VCU is favored by three tonight at home.

Pick: Under 134.5.

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